Asymptotically idempotent aggregation operators for trust management in multi-agent systems

The study of trust management in multi-agent system, especially distributed, has grown over the last years. Trust is a complex subject that has no general consensus in literature, but has emerged the importance of reasoning about it computationally. Reputation systems takes into consideration the history of an entity’s actions/behavior in order to compute trust, collecting and aggregating ratings from members in a community. In this scenario the aggregation problem becomes fundamental, in particular depending on the environment. In this paper we describe a technique based on a class of asymptotically idempotent aggregation operators, suitable particulary for distributed anonymous environments

Sharp Oracle Inequalities for Aggregation of Affine Estimators

We consider the problem of combining a (possibly uncountably infinite) set of affine estimators in non-parametric regression model with heteroscedastic Gaussian noise. Focusing on the exponentially weighted aggregate, we prove a PAC-Bayesian type inequality that leads to sharp oracle inequalities in discrete but also in continuous settings. The framework is general enough to cover the combinations of various procedures such as least square regression, kernel ridge regression, shrinking estimators and many other estimators used in the literature on statistical inverse problems. As a consequence, we show that the proposed aggregate provides an adaptive estimator in the exact minimax sense without neither discretizing the range of tuning parameters nor splitting the set of observations. We also illustrate numerically the good performance achieved by the exponentially weighted aggregate

Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey

Aggregated times series variables can be forecasted in different ways. For example, they may be forecasted on the basis of the aggregate series or forecasts of disaggregated variables may be obtained first and then these forecasts may be aggregated. A number of forecasts are presented and compared. Classical theoretical results on the relative efficiencies of different forecasts are reviewed and some complications are discussed which invalidate the theoretical results. Contemporaneous as well as temporal aggregation are considered.Autoregressive moving-average process, temporal aggregation, contemporaneous aggregation, vector autoregressive moving-average process

SPOCC: Scalable POssibilistic Classifier Combination -- toward robust aggregation of classifiers

We investigate a problem in which each member of a group of learners is trained separately to solve the same classification task. Each learner has access to a training dataset (possibly with overlap across learners) but each trained classifier can be evaluated on a validation dataset. We propose a new approach to aggregate the learner predictions in the possibility theory framework. For each classifier prediction, we build a possibility distribution assessing how likely the classifier prediction is correct using frequentist probabilities estimated on the validation set. The possibility distributions are aggregated using an adaptive t-norm that can accommodate dependency and poor accuracy of the classifier predictions. We prove that the proposed approach possesses a number of desirable classifier combination robustness properties

Copulae: On the Crossroads of Mathematics and Economics

The central focus of the workshop was on copula theory as well as applications to multivariate stochastic modelling. The programme was intrinsically interdisciplinary and represented areas with much recent progress. The workshop included talks and dynamic discussions on construction, estimation and various applications of copulas to finance, insurance, hydrology, medicine, risk management and related fields

Small gain theorems for large scale systems and construction of ISS Lyapunov functions

We consider interconnections of n nonlinear subsystems in the input-to-state stability (ISS) framework. For each subsystem an ISS Lyapunov function is given that treats the other subsystems as independent inputs. A gain matrix is used to encode the mutual dependencies of the systems in the network. Under a small gain assumption on the monotone operator induced by the gain matrix, a locally Lipschitz continuous ISS Lyapunov function is obtained constructively for the entire network by appropriately scaling the individual Lyapunov functions for the subsystems. The results are obtained in a general formulation of ISS, the cases of summation, maximization and separation with respect to external gains are obtained as corollaries.Comment: provisionally accepted by SIAM Journal on Control and Optimizatio