Helping farmers face the increasing complexity of decision-making for crop protection

The European Community Directive 128/2009 on the Sustainable Use of Pesticides establishes a strategy for the use of plant protection products (PPPs) in the European Community so as to reduce risks to human health and the environment. Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is a key component of this strategy, which will become mandatory in 2014. IPM is based on dynamic processes and requires decision-making at strategic, tactical, and operational levels. Relative to decision makers in conventional agricultural systems, decision makers in IPM systems require more knowledge and must deal with greater complexity. Different tools have been developed for supporting decision-making in plant disease control and include warning services, on-site devices, and decision support systems (DSSs). These decision-support tools operate at different spatial and time scales, are provided to users both by public and private sources, focus on different communication modes, and can support multiple options for delivering information to farmers. Characteristics, weaknesses, and strengths of these tools are described in this review. Also described are recently developed DSSs, which are characterised by: i) holistic treatment of crop management problems (including pests, diseases, fertilisation, canopy management and irrigation); ii) conversion of complex decision processes into simple and easy-to-understand ‘decision supports’; iii) easy and rapid access through the Internet; and iv) two-way communication between users and providers that make it possible to consider context-specific information. These DSSs are easy-to-use tools that perform complex tasks efficiently and effectively. The delivery of these DSSs via the Internet increases user accessibility, allows the DSSs to be updated easily and continuously (so that new knowledge can be rapidly and efficiently provided to farmers), and allows users to maintain close contact with providers

Sistema de soporte de decisiones para mejorar la producción de leche al pastoreo

Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina. Escuela de Posgrado. Maestría en Producción AnimalEl manejo de un sistema de producción de leche en pasturas es dinámico, por lo que se requiere permanentemente de información detallada para la toma de decisiones oportunas, factor clave para el éxito de una empresa. El objetivo de este trabajo fue diseñar un sistema de soporte de decisiones (SSD) para mejorar la eficiencia de los sistemas de producción de leche al pastoreo. El programa desarrollado se aplicó al módulo lechero de la U.P. Pachacayo de la SAIS Túpac Amaru. El estudio comprendió (1) análisis del sistema de producción, (2) diseño y codificación de la herramienta de manejo de datos, (3) validación y evaluación del prototipo de SSD y, (4) elaboración de una guía de usuario. La estructura del programa contiene tablas, consultas e informes para los componentes de producción, reproducción, sanidad, pastizales y económico. La evaluación fue positiva, quedando los usuarios satisfechos y cómodos con su uso. En conclusión este programa es de fácil acceso y conto con la aceptación por parte de los usuarios de la U.P. Pachacayo.The management of milk production system on pastures is dynamic, requiring permanently detailed information for timely decision-making, as a key factor for the success of a company. The aim of this study was to design a decision support system (DSS) to improve the efficiency of grazing milk production systems. The developed program was applied to a dairy module Production Unit (UP) Pachacayo SAIS Tupac Amaru. The study included (1) an analysis of the production system, (2) the design and coding of the DSS, (3) the validation and evaluation of the DSS prototype and (4) the development of a user guide. The program structure contains tables, queries and reports for the components of production as animal reproduction and health, pastures and economics. The evaluation was positive, comfortable and satisfactory for users. In conclusion, this program is easily accessible and included the acceptance by users from U.P. Pachacayo.Tesi

Improved Decision Support For Water Treatment Plant Operations Via Stochastic Water Quality, Multi-Objective Optimization, and Visual Analytics

Water treatment decision support systems (DSSs) enhance the quality and consistency of decision making in the production and distribution of drinking water. In this work, we review the state-of-the-art for water treatment DSSs and identify three critical research areas&mdash;stochastic water quality, multi-objective optimization, and visual analytics. We advance these research areas through the development of statistical methods, a novel optimization framework, and an interactive visualization software library. Stochastic water quality methods are useful for generating water quality scenarios to characterize source water uncertainty and analyze how variations in water quality impact treatment decisions. However, traditional time series approaches fail to accurately model these data given the short, multivariate nature of water quality records. Due to these data limitations, we developed a non-parametric approach, known as the modified k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) bootstrap resampling, which can generate water quality scenarios that capture the statistical properties of historical records. Using a simulation model, the performance of a treatment plant can be evaluated over an ensemble of water quality scenarios. By coupling this simulation with multi-objective optimization, an algorithm can search for alternative operating policies that perform well across these scenarios for multiple treatment objectives. To better understand the conflict between these objectives&mdash;such as disinfection goals, disinfection byproduct formation, and cost&mdash;and to improve treatment operations, we created a new optimization framework that integrates the modified k-NN described above with simulation-optimization techniques. Visual analytics are used to explore the large, high-dimensional datasets produced by treatment optimizations. These iterative, interactive visualizations facilitate decision making, and among visualization methods, parallel coordinates are well-suited for these datasets. However, current software and open source libraries have limited support for these plots. To improve the implementation of parallel coordinates visualizations and to increase access to visual analytics, we created Parasol&mdash;an open source, interactive visualization library to support the development of web applications for multi-objective decision making.</p

Two-dimensional modeling of hydraulics and fine sediment transport during extreme floods in urban areas

Treffen Extremhochwässer auf urbane Räume, können sie große Schäden verursachen. Um in diesen Gebieten Gefahren rechtzeitig zu erkennen, geeignete Maßnahmen zu ergreifen und im Fall einer Katastrophe Einsatzkräfte und Technik effizient koordinieren zu können, werden Entscheidungshilfesysteme unterstützend eingesetzt. Hydraulische Modelle bilden mit den Vorhersagen der Wasserstände, Fließgeschwindigkeiten und Flächenausdehnung der Überflutungen die wichtigste Grundlage für diese Entscheidungshilfesysteme. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, ein hydraulisches 2D-Modell mit dem für urbane Gebiete notwendigen Detaillierungsgrad aufzubauen und trotz der Daten-, Prozess- und Parameterunsicherheiten ein darauf basierendes Schadstoffausbreitungsmodell zu erstellen, für ein Extremhochwasser zu kalibrieren, mit diesem Modellsystem Simulationen durchzuführen, die Ergebnisse zu analysieren und sie in ein Entscheidungshilfesystem zur stoffbezogenen Risikoanalyse und -bewertung extremer Hochwasserereignisse zu integrieren. Im Rahmen einer Fallstudie an der Vereinigten Mulde im Raum Bitterfeld wird für ein 45 km2 großes Gebiet ein detailliertes Modellsystem aufgebaut. Durch die nachträgliche Vermessung von Flutmarken der maximalen Wasserstände des Extremhochwassers vom August 2002 werden die notwendigen Daten zur Kalibrierung des hydraulischen Modells generiert. Zur Validierung des Sedimenttransportmodells wird ein ereignisunabhängiges neuartiges semi-quantitatives Verfahren entwickelt. Als Ergebnisse stehen räumlich und zeitlich hoch aufgelöste Wasserstände, Fließgeschwindigkeiten, Depositionshöhen und Konzentrationen von partikulär gebunden transportierten Stoffen zur Verfügung. Diese Daten werden für Risikobewertungen in einem Entscheidungshilfesystem genutzt und in Form von Karten präsentiert. Das Entscheidungshilfesystem hat sich im Praxiseinsatz bei Extremhochwässern bewährt, wobei der Schwerpunkt bislang auf den Ergebnissen der hydraulischen Modellierung lag.Climate change research predicts that extreme floods will occur more frequently in future. Floods in urban areas result in catastrophic consequences. Decision support systems (DSS) requires to identify and estimate the impact of impending flood in advance and to take suitable measures for the efficient coordination of operational forces and technique. Hydraulic models are the most important basis for such DSS. The aim of this study is to develop a high resolution 2D hydraulic model for urban areas and to couple it with a sediment and pollutant transport model. The model system is then calibrated for an extreme flood. Simulations are performed and the results are analyzed and integrated in a DSS for risk analysis and assessment of extreme floods. The aforementioned high resolution 2D hydraulic model is applied for the case study of the River Mulde adjoining the City Bitterfeld covering an area of 45 square kilometer. The necessary data for calibration of the hydraulic model are generated by additional survey of flood marks of the maximum water level during the extreme flood of August 2002. A new approach for validation of the sediment transport model is developed. Spatially and temporarily high resolution results of surface water levels, flow velocities, deposition and concentrations of particular bounded pollutants are presented for different scenarios. The results are used for risk assessment in the DSS and are presented as maps. The integrated DSS has been approved and used by authorities where the focus was on hydraulic results. The presented approach for the development of an integrated DSS based on the results of 2D hydraulic modeling combined with sediment and pollutant transport can be transferred to other urban areas after necessary modifications

Operator Training Simulator Using Plantwide Control for Biodiesel Production from Waste Cooking Oil

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk membangunkan simulator latihan operator (OTS) untuk mangkin homogen bagi proses dua langkah biodiesel yang kompleks. Latihan sambil bekerja selalunya memerlukan kos yang tinggi, berisiko dan tidak lengkap kerana beberapa situasi kecemasan mungkin tidak berlaku semasa sesi latihan. Biodiesel dilihat sebagai sumber bahan api alternative, Disebabkan ketersediaan yang terhad sumber tenaga yang tidak boleh diperbaharui dan juga kebimbangan terhadap alam sekitar. Walau bagaimanapun, kos pengeluaran yang tinggi bagi biodiesel menghadkan pengeluaran dan penggunaannya. Salah satu pilihan yang terbaik adalah dengan menggunakan sisa minyak masak (WCO) sebagai sumber bahan mentah bagi pengeluaran biodiesel yang kos efektif dan juga penggunaan WCO yang berkesan. Dalam kajian ini, sisa minyak sawit masak dianggap dengan 6% asid lemak bebas (FFA) sebagai bekalan simpanan. Dua proses pengeluaran biodiesel (kedua-duanya melibatkan pengesteran asid dan transesterifikasi alkali) telah dibandingkan untuk analisis ekonomi dan alam sekitar. Pertama, proses ini dalam simulator Aspen Plus. Selepas itu, kedua-dua proses dioptimumkan dengan mengambil kira keuntungan, tenaga haba dan bahan buangan organik sebagai objektif, dan menggunakan program berasaskan Excel pengoptimuman multi-objektif (EMOO) untuk pengisihan algoritma genetic elitis tidak dikuasai (NSGA-II). Proses 1 mempunyai tiga reaktor transesterifikasi yang menghasilkan sisa organik jauh lebih rendah (32%), memerlukan duti haba yang lebih rendah (39%) dan sedikit keuntungan (1.6%) berbanding Proses 2 yang hanya mempunyai satu reaktor transesterifikasi dan juga urutan pemisahan yang berbeza. Sistem kawalan loji lebar (PWC) yang berkesan adalah penting untuk operasi loji biodiesel yang selamat, lancar dan ekonomi. Oleh itu, sistem PWC yang sesuai telah dibangunkan untuk proses biodiesel yang menggunakan simulasi rangka kerja bersepadu dan heuristik (IFSH). Merit utama metodologi IFSH adalah keberkesanan penggunaan proses simulator yang baik dan heuristik dalam membangunkan sistem PWC dan kesederhanaan applikasinya. Akhir sekali, pelaksanaan sistem kawalan yang dibangunkan dinilai dari segi masa penetapan, sisihan daripada sasaran pengeluaran (DPT), dan jumlah variasi keseluruhan (TV) dalam pembolehubah yang dimanipulasi. Penilaian-penilaian prestasi dan keputusan simulasi dinamik menunjukkan bahawa sistem PWC yang dihasilkan adalah stabil, berkesan, dan teguh terhadap beberapa gangguan. Akhir sekali, OTS telah dibangunkan untuk penghasilan biodiesel daripada WCO. Oleh itu, latihan menggunakan OTS adalah penting. OTS telah dibangunkan untuk pengeluaran biodiesel dan telah diapplikasikan dengan beberapa keadaan proses yang tidak normal. Keadaan proses ini boleh dimuatkan dan digunakan pada bila-bila masa untuk melatih operator baru dan sedia ada. Kajian ini adalah yang pertama dibangunkan menggunakan struktur lengkap PWC dan OTS untuk mangkin yang homogeneous bagi dua langkah pengeluaran biodiesel daripada WCO. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ This study aims at developing an operator training simulator (OTS) for the complex homogeneously catalyzed two-step biodiesel process. On-job training is often costly, risky and incomplete as some emergency situations may not arise during the training session. Therefore, training using an OTS is crucial. Pertaining to the limited availability of non-renewable energy sources and the environmental concerns, biodiesel is considered as a potential alternative fuel. However, the high production cost of biodiesel limits its manufacture and utilization. One attractive option is to use waste cooking oil (WCO) as the feedstock that enables cost effective biodiesel production and also facilitates effective WCO utilization. This study considers waste cooking palm oil with 6% free fatty acids (FFA) as feedstock. Two biodiesel production processes (both involving acid esterification and alkali transesterification) are compared for economic and environmental objectives. Firstly, these processes are simulated realistically in Aspen Plus simulator. Subsequently, both the processes are optimized considering profit, heat duty and organic waste as objectives, and using an Excel-based multi-objective optimization (EMOO) program for the elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). Process 1 having three transesterification reactors produces significantly lower organic waste (by 32%), requires lower heat duty (by 39%) and slightly more profitable (by 1.6%) compared to Process 2 having a single transesterification reactor and also a different separation sequence. An effective plantwide control (PWC) system is crucial for the safe, smooth, and economical operation of a biodiesel plant. Hence, a suitable PWC system is developed for the biodiesel process using the integrated framework of simulation and heuristics (IFSH). The main merits of the IFSH methodology are effective use of rigorous process simulators and heuristics in developing a PWC system and simplicity of application. Later, the performance of the developed control system is assessed in terms of settling time, deviation from the production target (DPT), and overall total variation (TV) in manipulated variables. These performance assessments and the results of dynamic simulations showed that the developed PWC system is stable, effective, and robust in the presence of several disturbances. Finally, an OTS has been developed for the biodiesel production from WCO. The developed OTS for biodiesel production process has been investigated for several abnormal process conditions. These process scenarios can be loaded and utilized at any point in time to train the new and existing operators. This is the first study to develop a complete PWC structure and OTS for a homogeneously catalyzed two-step biodiesel production from WCO

Composting modelling : towards a better understanding of the fundamentals, applications for enhanced nutrient recycling, greenhouse gas reduction, and improved decision-making

Cette thèse de doctorat vise à consolider, développer et appliquer nos connaissances sur la modélisation du compostage, dans le but de fournir des informations, des outils et des perspectives accessibles et utilisables pour les chercheurs et les décideurs. L'espoir est que les travaux développés tout au long de cette thèse puissent aider à optimiser les procédés de compostage, notamment en réduisant les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) et en améliorant le recyclage des nutriments. A ce titre, la thèse est divisée en trois phases : (1) la phase 1 est une consolidation et un développement des notions fondamentales de la modélisation du compostage, (2) suivie de la phase 2, où la modélisation de la perte de nutriments et des émissions de GES est étudiée, (3) avec la phase 3 qui est axée sur la manière d'assurer que ce travail puisse être utilisé par les décideurs et acteurs dans le milieu de compostage. Dans la première phase, une revue complète et systématique de l'ensemble de la littérature sur la modélisation du compostage a été entreprise (chapitre 2), cherchant à fournir une meilleure compréhension du travail qui a été fait et sur la direction des travaux futurs. Ceci a été suivi d'une étudie détaillée des approches de modélisation cinétique actuelles, notamment par rapport aux facteurs de corrections cinétiques appliqués à travers le domaine (chapitre 3). La phase 2 s'est ensuite focalisée sur les notions spécifiques relatives aux émissions de GES et aux pertes de nutriments lors du compostage, et à la modélisation de ces phénomènes. Cette thèse présente les réacteurs expérimentaux et le plan conçu pour suivre et évaluer le processus de compostage (chapitre 4), ainsi que le modèle de compostage compréhensif développé pour prédire avec précision les émissions et la transformation des nutriments pendant le compostage (chapitre 5). Enfin, la phase 3 visait à rendre ces informations facilement et largement utilisables. Cela a commencé par une évaluation des meilleures pratiques pour développer des modèles et des systèmes d'aide à la décision pour la prise de décision environnementale (chapitre 6), suivi par le développement de nouvelles approches de modélisation cinétique simples (chapitre 7), culminant avec le développement, l'ajustement paramétrique et la validation d'un modèle de compostage parcimonieux (chapitre 8). Grâce à ce travail, une base consolidée de l'état actuel de la modélisation du compostage a été développée, suivie par l'exploration et le développement de connaissances et d'outils à la fois fondamentaux et applicables.This PhD thesis aims consolidating, developing, and applying our knowledge on composting modelling, with the goal of providing accessible and usable information, tools, and perspectives for researchers and decision-makers alike. The hope is that the work developed throughout this dissertation can help in optimizing composting, notably by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improving nutrient recycling. As such, the thesis is divided into three phases: (1) phase 1 is a consolidation and development of the fundamentals of composting modelling, (2) followed by phase 2, where the modelling of nutrient loss and GHG emissions is investigated, (3) with phase 3 focusing on how to ensure that this work can be used by decision-makers. In the first phase, a comprehensive and systematic review of the entirety of the literature on composting modelling was undertaken (chapter 2), seeking to provide a better understanding on the work that has been done and guidance on where future work should focus and how it should be approached. This review then raised some interesting questions regarding modelling approaches, notably regarding modelling of composting kinetics, which was studied in detail through the evaluation of current modelling approaches (chapter 3). Phase 2 then focused on the specific notions relating to GHG emissions and nutrient loss during composting, and how to model these phenomena. This section starts with a presentation of the experimental reactors and plan designed to monitor and evaluate the composting process (chapter 4), followed by the comprehensive composting model developed to accurately predict emissions and nutrient transformation during composting (chapter 5). Finally, phase 3 aimed to make this information easily and widely usable, especially for decision-makers. This started with a review on the best practices to develop models and decision support systems for environmental decision-making (chapter 6), followed by the development of novel simple kinetic modelling approaches (chapter 7), culminating with the development, calibration, and validation of a parsimonious composting model (chapter 8). Through this work, a consolidated basis of the current state on composting modelling has been developed, followed-up by the exploration and development of both fundamental and applicable knowledge and tools