Making intelligent systems team players: Case studies and design issues. Volume 1: Human-computer interaction design

Initial results are reported from a multi-year, interdisciplinary effort to provide guidance and assistance for designers of intelligent systems and their user interfaces. The objective is to achieve more effective human-computer interaction (HCI) for systems with real time fault management capabilities. Intelligent fault management systems within the NASA were evaluated for insight into the design of systems with complex HCI. Preliminary results include: (1) a description of real time fault management in aerospace domains; (2) recommendations and examples for improving intelligent systems design and user interface design; (3) identification of issues requiring further research; and (4) recommendations for a development methodology integrating HCI design into intelligent system design

Seismic Ray Impedance Inversion

This thesis investigates a prestack seismic inversion scheme implemented in the ray parameter domain. Conventionally, most prestack seismic inversion methods are performed in the incidence angle domain. However, inversion using the concept of ray impedance, as it honours ray path variation following the elastic parameter variation according to Snell’s law, shows the capacity to discriminate different lithologies if compared to conventional elastic impedance inversion. The procedure starts with data transformation into the ray-parameter domain and then implements the ray impedance inversion along constant ray-parameter profiles. With different constant-ray-parameter profiles, mixed-phase wavelets are initially estimated based on the high-order statistics of the data and further refined after a proper well-to-seismic tie. With the estimated wavelets ready, a Cauchy inversion method is used to invert for seismic reflectivity sequences, aiming at recovering seismic reflectivity sequences for blocky impedance inversion. The impedance inversion from reflectivity sequences adopts a standard generalised linear inversion scheme, whose results are utilised to identify rock properties and facilitate quantitative interpretation. It has also been demonstrated that we can further invert elastic parameters from ray impedance values, without eliminating an extra density term or introducing a Gardner’s relation to absorb this term. Ray impedance inversion is extended to P-S converted waves by introducing the definition of converted-wave ray impedance. This quantity shows some advantages in connecting prestack converted wave data with well logs, if compared with the shearwave elastic impedance derived from the Aki and Richards approximation to the Zoeppritz equations. An analysis of P-P and P-S wave data under the framework of ray impedance is conducted through a real multicomponent dataset, which can reduce the uncertainty in lithology identification.Inversion is the key method in generating those examples throughout the entire thesis as we believe it can render robust solutions to geophysical problems. Apart from the reflectivity sequence, ray impedance and elastic parameter inversion mentioned above, inversion methods are also adopted in transforming the prestack data from the offset domain to the ray-parameter domain, mixed-phase wavelet estimation, as well as the registration of P-P and P-S waves for the joint analysis. The ray impedance inversion methods are successfully applied to different types of datasets. In each individual step to achieving the ray impedance inversion, advantages, disadvantages as well as limitations of the algorithms adopted are detailed. As a conclusion, the ray impedance related analyses demonstrated in this thesis are highly competent compared with the classical elastic impedance methods and the author would like to recommend it for a wider application

Practical applications of multi-agent systems in electric power systems

The transformation of energy networks from passive to active systems requires the embedding of intelligence within the network. One suitable approach to integrating distributed intelligent systems is multi-agent systems technology, where components of functionality run as autonomous agents capable of interaction through messaging. This provides loose coupling between components that can benefit the complex systems envisioned for the smart grid. This paper reviews the key milestones of demonstrated agent systems in the power industry and considers which aspects of agent design must still be addressed for widespread application of agent technology to occur

The crowd as a cameraman : on-stage display of crowdsourced mobile video at large-scale events

Recording videos with smartphones at large-scale events such as concerts and festivals is very common nowadays. These videos register the atmosphere of the event as it is experienced by the crowd and offer a perspective that is hard to capture by the professional cameras installed throughout the venue. In this article, we present a framework to collect videos from smartphones in the public and blend these into a mosaic that can be readily mixed with professional camera footage and shown on displays during the event. The video upload is prioritized by matching requests of the event director with video metadata, while taking into account the available wireless network capacity. The proposed framework's main novelty is its scalability, supporting the real-time transmission, processing and display of videos recorded by hundreds of simultaneous users in ultra-dense Wi-Fi environments, as well as its proven integration in commercial production environments. The framework has been extensively validated in a controlled lab setting with up to 1 000 clients as well as in a field trial where 1 183 videos were collected from 135 participants recruited from an audience of 8 050 people. 90 % of those videos were uploaded within 6.8 minutes

A Generalised Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Aggregation and Estimation

We propose a structural model of investment which is based on the aggregation of (S,s) investment projects within firms. This encompasses the findings that whilst firm level investment is smooth, plant level investment is lumpy and frequently zero. We undertake stochastic aggregation and derive a structural firm level investment estimator. The empirical performance and fit of this estimator on a panel of manufacturing firms is encouraging and provides an avenue for general policy simulation. This model also explains the rich non-linear dynamics of firm level investment data and the frequent simultaneity of firm level investment and disinvestment. This approach provides an alternative structural estimator to the standard convex adjustment cost models, such as Tobin's Q and the Euler equation. The is important because these estimators, which assume quadratic adjustment costs, appear to be misspecified and subject to a fallacy of composition between smooth firm level investment and lumpy plant level investment. For completeness we also consider time aggregation as an alternative source of smoothing but statistically reject this as being insufficient to smooth investment alone. This test also rejects most plant level data, such as the US\ LRD and UK\ ARD, as being generated from a single (S,s) process.

Towards Active Event Recognition

Directing robot attention to recognise activities and to anticipate events like goal-directed actions is a crucial skill for human-robot interaction. Unfortunately, issues like intrinsic time constraints, the spatially distributed nature of the entailed information sources, and the existence of a multitude of unobservable states affecting the system, like latent intentions, have long rendered achievement of such skills a rather elusive goal. The problem tests the limits of current attention control systems. It requires an integrated solution for tracking, exploration and recognition, which traditionally have been seen as separate problems in active vision.We propose a probabilistic generative framework based on a mixture of Kalman filters and information gain maximisation that uses predictions in both recognition and attention-control. This framework can efficiently use the observations of one element in a dynamic environment to provide information on other elements, and consequently enables guided exploration.Interestingly, the sensors-control policy, directly derived from first principles, represents the intuitive trade-off between finding the most discriminative clues and maintaining overall awareness.Experiments on a simulated humanoid robot observing a human executing goal-oriented actions demonstrated improvement on recognition time and precision over baseline systems

An empirical characterization of mortgage default in Colombia between 1997 and 2004

This paper examines the relationship between mortgage default decisions and relevant observable variables under the light of a random utility model. The focus of the study is the Colombian mortgage market between 1997 and 2004 using two separate data sets that are matched using simulation techniques. The estimation allows the computation of mortgage default probabilities that are directly related to an underlying model of optimal default. Results are sharp and indicate that variation in current income has little effect on mortgage default, compared to housing prices and mortgage balances.D4; G21; L13; R12 Classification JEL: Banking; Location; Competition; Colombia.