A patent time series processing component for technology intelligence by trend identification functionality

© 2014, Springer-Verlag London. Technology intelligence indicates the concept and applications that transform data hidden in patents or scientific literatures into technical insight for technology strategy-making support. The existing frameworks and applications of technology intelligence mainly focus on obtaining text-based knowledge with text mining components. However, what is the corresponding technological trend of the knowledge over time is seldom taken into consideration. In order to capture the hidden trend turning points and improve the framework of existing technology intelligence, this paper proposes a patent time series processing component with trend identification functionality. We use piecewise linear representation method to generate and quantify the trend of patent publication activities, then utilize the outcome to identify trend turning points and provide trend tags to the existing text mining component, thus making it possible to combine the text-based and time-based knowledge together to support technology strategy making more satisfactorily. A case study using Australia patents (year 1983–2012) in Information and Communications Technology industry is presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the component when dealing with real-world tasks. The result shows that the new component identifies the trend reasonably well, at the same time learns valuable trend turning points in historical patent time series

Soft Computing Approaches to Stock Forecasting: A Survey

Soft computing techniques has been effectively applied in business, engineering, medical domain to solve problems in the past decade. However, this paper focuses on censoring the application of soft computing techniques for stock market prediction in the last decade (2010 - todate). Over a hundred published articles on stock price prediction were reviewed. The survey is done by grouping these published articles into: the stock market surveyed, input variable choices, summary of modelling technique applied, comparative studies, and summary of performance measures. This survey aptly shows that soft computing techniques are widely used and it has demonstrated widely acceptability to accurately use for predicting stock price and stock index behavior worldwide

An academic review: applications of data mining techniques in finance industry

With the development of Internet techniques, data volumes are doubling every two years, faster than predicted by Moore’s Law. Big Data Analytics becomes particularly important for enterprise business. Modern computational technologies will provide effective tools to help understand hugely accumulated data and leverage this information to get insights into the finance industry. In order to get actionable insights into the business, data has become most valuable asset of financial organisations, as there are no physical products in finance industry to manufacture. This is where data mining techniques come to their rescue by allowing access to the right information at the right time. These techniques are used by the finance industry in various areas such as fraud detection, intelligent forecasting, credit rating, loan management, customer profiling, money laundering, marketing and prediction of price movements to name a few. This work aims to survey the research on data mining techniques applied to the finance industry from 2010 to 2015.The review finds that Stock prediction and Credit rating have received most attention of researchers, compared to Loan prediction, Money Laundering and Time Series prediction. Due to the dynamics, uncertainty and variety of data, nonlinear mapping techniques have been deeply studied than linear techniques. Also it has been proved that hybrid methods are more accurate in prediction, closely followed by Neural Network technique. This survey could provide a clue of applications of data mining techniques for finance industry, and a summary of methodologies for researchers in this area. Especially, it could provide a good vision of Data Mining Techniques in computational finance for beginners who want to work in the field of computational finance

PROGNOSIS - Historical Pattern Matching for Economic Forecasting and Trading

In recent years financial markets have become complex environments that continuously change and they change quickly. The strong link between the continuous change in the markets and the danger of losing money when trading in them, has made financial studies a domain that concentrates increasing scientific and business attention. In this context, the development of computational techniques that can monitor recent financial events can process them according to their similarity with historical data recordings, and can support financial decision making, is a challenging problem. In this work, the principal idea for tackling this problem is the integration of 'current' market information as derived from the market's recent past and historical information. A robust technique which is based on flexible pattern matching, segmented data representations, time warping, and time series embedding dimension measures is proposed. Complementary time series derived features, concerning trend structures, temporal considerations and statistical measures are systematically combined in this technique. All these components have been integrated into a software package, which I called PROGNOSIS, that can selectively monitor its application and allows systematic evaluation in terms of financial forecasting and trading performance. In addition, two other topics are discussed in this thesis. Firstly, in chapter 3, a neural network, that is known as the Growing Neural Gas network, is employed for financial forecasting and trading. To my knowledge, this network has never been applied before to financial problems. Based on this a neural network forecasting and trading benchmark was constructed for comparison purposes. Secondly, a novel method of approaching the well established co-integraton theory is proposed in the last chapter of the thesis. This method enhances the co-integration theory by integrating into it local time relations between two time series. These local time dependencies are identified using dynamic time warping. The hypothesis that is tested is that local time shifts, delays, shrinks or stretches, if identified, may help to reveal co-integrating movement between the two time series. I called this type of co-integration time-warped co-integration. To this end, the time-warped co-integration framework is presented as an error correction model and it is tested on arbitrage trading opportunities within PROGNOSIS

The Stock Exchange Prediction using Machine Learning Techniques: A Comprehensive and Systematic Literature Review

This literature review identifies and analyzes research topic trends, types of data sets, learning algorithm, methods improvements, and frameworks used in stock exchange prediction. A total of 81 studies were investigated, which were published regarding stock predictions in the period January 2015 to June 2020 which took into account the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The literature review methodology is carried out in three major phases: review planning, implementation, and report preparation, in nine steps from defining systematic review requirements to presentation of results. Estimation or regression, clustering, association, classification, and preprocessing analysis of data sets are the five main focuses revealed in the main study of stock prediction research. The classification method gets a share of 35.80% from related studies, the estimation method is 56.79%, data analytics is 4.94%, the rest is clustering and association is 1.23%. Furthermore, the use of the technical indicator data set is 74.07%, the rest are combinations of datasets. To develop a stock prediction model 48 different methods have been applied, 9 of the most widely applied methods were identified. The best method in terms of accuracy and also small error rate such as SVM, DNN, CNN, RNN, LSTM, bagging ensembles such as RF, boosting ensembles such as XGBoost, ensemble majority vote and the meta-learner approach is ensemble Stacking. Several techniques are proposed to improve prediction accuracy by combining several methods, using boosting algorithms, adding feature selection and using parameter and hyper-parameter optimization

Soft Computing Techniques for Stock Market Prediction: A Literature Survey

Stock market trading is an unending investment exercise globally. It has potentials to generate high returns on investors’ investment. However, it is characterized by high risk of investment hence, having knowledge and ability to predict stock price or market movement is invaluable to investors in the stock market. Over the years, several soft computing techniques have been used to analyze various stock markets to retrieve knowledge to guide investors on when to buy or sell. This paper surveys over 100 published articles that focus on the application of soft computing techniques to forecast stock markets. The aim of this paper is to present a coherent of information on various soft computing techniques employed for stock market prediction. This research work will enable researchers in this field to know the current trend as well as help to inform their future research efforts. From the surveyed articles, it is evident that researchers have firmly focused on the development of hybrid prediction models and substantial work has also been done on the use of social media data for stock market prediction. It is also revealing that most studies have focused on the prediction of stock prices in emerging market