Impact Assessment of Hypothesized Cyberattacks on Interconnected Bulk Power Systems

The first-ever Ukraine cyberattack on power grid has proven its devastation by hacking into their critical cyber assets. With administrative privileges accessing substation networks/local control centers, one intelligent way of coordinated cyberattacks is to execute a series of disruptive switching executions on multiple substations using compromised supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. These actions can cause significant impacts to an interconnected power grid. Unlike the previous power blackouts, such high-impact initiating events can aggravate operating conditions, initiating instability that may lead to system-wide cascading failure. A systemic evaluation of "nightmare" scenarios is highly desirable for asset owners to manage and prioritize the maintenance and investment in protecting their cyberinfrastructure. This survey paper is a conceptual expansion of real-time monitoring, anomaly detection, impact analyses, and mitigation (RAIM) framework that emphasizes on the resulting impacts, both on steady-state and dynamic aspects of power system stability. Hypothetically, we associate the combinatorial analyses of steady state on substations/components outages and dynamics of the sequential switching orders as part of the permutation. The expanded framework includes (1) critical/noncritical combination verification, (2) cascade confirmation, and (3) combination re-evaluation. This paper ends with a discussion of the open issues for metrics and future design pertaining the impact quantification of cyber-related contingencies

Stochastic Model for Power Grid Dynamics

We introduce a stochastic model that describes the quasi-static dynamics of an electric transmission network under perturbations introduced by random load fluctuations, random removing of system components from service, random repair times for the failed components, and random response times to implement optimal system corrections for removing line overloads in a damaged or stressed transmission network. We use a linear approximation to the network flow equations and apply linear programming techniques that optimize the dispatching of generators and loads in order to eliminate the network overloads associated with a damaged system. We also provide a simple model for the operator's response to various contingency events that is not always optimal due to either failure of the state estimation system or due to the incorrect subjective assessment of the severity associated with these events. This further allows us to use a game theoretic framework for casting the optimization of the operator's response into the choice of the optimal strategy which minimizes the operating cost. We use a simple strategy space which is the degree of tolerance to line overloads and which is an automatic control (optimization) parameter that can be adjusted to trade off automatic load shed without propagating cascades versus reduced load shed and an increased risk of propagating cascades. The tolerance parameter is chosen to describes a smooth transition from a risk averse to a risk taken strategy...Comment: framework for a system-level analysis of the power grid from the viewpoint of complex network

Network hierarchy evolution and system vulnerability in power grids

(c) 2016 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.The seldom addressed network hierarchy property and its relationship with vulnerability analysis for power transmission grids from a complex-systems point of view are given in this paper. We analyze and compare the evolution of network hierarchy for the dynamic vulnerability evaluation of four different power transmission grids of real cases. Several meaningful results suggest that the vulnerability of power grids can be assessed by means of a network hierarchy evolution analysis. First, the network hierarchy evolution may be used as a novel measurement to quantify the robustness of power grids. Second, an antipyramidal structure appears in the most robust network when quantifying cascading failures by the proposed hierarchy metric. Furthermore, the analysis results are also validated and proved by empirical reliability data. We show that our proposed hierarchy evolution analysis methodology could be used to assess the vulnerability of power grids or even other networks from a complex-systems point of view.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Modelling interdependencies between the electricity and information infrastructures

The aim of this paper is to provide qualitative models characterizing interdependencies related failures of two critical infrastructures: the electricity infrastructure and the associated information infrastructure. The interdependencies of these two infrastructures are increasing due to a growing connection of the power grid networks to the global information infrastructure, as a consequence of market deregulation and opening. These interdependencies increase the risk of failures. We focus on cascading, escalating and common-cause failures, which correspond to the main causes of failures due to interdependencies. We address failures in the electricity infrastructure, in combination with accidental failures in the information infrastructure, then we show briefly how malicious attacks in the information infrastructure can be addressed

Structural Vulnerability Analysis of Electric Power Distribution Grids

Power grid outages cause huge economical and societal costs. Disruptions in the power distribution grid are responsible for a significant fraction of electric power unavailability to customers. The impact of extreme weather conditions, continuously increasing demand, and the over-ageing of assets in the grid, deteriorates the safety of electric power delivery in the near future. It is this dependence on electric power that necessitates further research in the power distribution grid security assessment. Thus measures to analyze the robustness characteristics and to identify vulnerabilities as they exist in the grid are of utmost importance. This research investigates exactly those concepts- the vulnerability and robustness of power distribution grids from a topological point of view, and proposes a metric to quantify them with respect to assets in a distribution grid. Real-world data is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed metric as a tool to assess the criticality of assets in a distribution grid

Modeling Fault Propagation Paths in Power Systems: A New Framework Based on Event SNP Systems With Neurotransmitter Concentration

To reveal fault propagation paths is one of the most critical studies for the analysis of power system security; however, it is rather dif cult. This paper proposes a new framework for the fault propagation path modeling method of power systems based on membrane computing.We rst model the fault propagation paths by proposing the event spiking neural P systems (Ev-SNP systems) with neurotransmitter concentration, which can intuitively reveal the fault propagation path due to the ability of its graphics models and parallel knowledge reasoning. The neurotransmitter concentration is used to represent the probability and gravity degree of fault propagation among synapses. Then, to reduce the dimension of the Ev-SNP system and make them suitable for large-scale power systems, we propose a model reduction method for the Ev-SNP system and devise its simpli ed model by constructing single-input and single-output neurons, called reduction-SNP system (RSNP system). Moreover, we apply the RSNP system to the IEEE 14- and 118-bus systems to study their fault propagation paths. The proposed approach rst extends the SNP systems to a large-scaled application in critical infrastructures from a single element to a system-wise investigation as well as from the post-ante fault diagnosis to a new ex-ante fault propagation path prediction, and the simulation results show a new success and promising approach to the engineering domain