Integral-based filtering of continuous glucose sensor measurements for glycaemic control in critical care

Hyperglycaemia is prevalent in critical illness and increases the risk of further complications and mortality, while tight control can reduce mortality up to 43%. Adaptive control methods are capable of highly accurate, targeted blood glucose regulation using limited numbers of manual measurements due to patient discomfort and labour intensity. Therefore, the option to obtain greater data density using emerging continuous glucose sensing devices is attractive. However, the few such systems currently available can have errors in excess of 20-30%. In contrast, typical bedside testing kits have errors of approximately 7-10%. Despite greater measurement frequency larger errors significantly impact the resulting glucose and patient specific parameter estimates, and thus the control actions determined creating an important safety and performance issue. This paper models the impact of the Continuous Glucose Monitoring System (CGMS, Medtronic, Northridge, CA) on model-based parameter identification and glucose prediction. An integral-based fitting and filtering method is developed to reduce the effect of these errors. A noise model is developed based on CGMS data reported in the literature, and is slightly conservative with a mean Clarke Error Grid (CEG) correlation of R=0.81 (range: 0.68-0.88) as compared to a reported value of R=0.82 in a critical care study. Using 17 virtual patient profiles developed from retrospective clinical data, this noise model was used to test the methods developed. Monte-Carlo simulation for each patient resulted in an average absolute one-hour glucose prediction error of 6.20% (range: 4.97-8.06%) with an average standard deviation per patient of 5.22% (range: 3.26-8.55%). Note that all the methods and results are generalisable to similar applications outside of critical care, such as less acute wards and eventually ambulatory individuals. Clinically, the results show one possible computational method for managing the larger errors encountered in emerging continuous blood glucose sensors, thus enabling their more effective use in clinical glucose regulation studies

Continuous Glucose Monitoring and Tight Glycaemic Control in Critically Ill Patients

Critically ill patients often exhibit abnormal glycaemia that can lead to severe complications and potentially death. In critically ill adults, hyperglycaemia is a common problem that has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. In contrast, critically ill infants often suffer from hypoglycaemia, which may cause seizures and permanent brain injury. Further complicating the matter, both of these conditions are diagnosed by blood glucose (BG) measurements, often taken several hours apart, and, as a result, these conditions can remain poorly managed or go completely undetected. Emerging ‘continuous’ glucose monitoring (CGM) devices with 1-5 minute measurement intervals have the potential to resolve many issues associated with conventional intermittent BG monitoring. The objective of this research was to investigate and develop methods and models to optimise the clinical use of CGM devices in critically ill patients. For critically ill adults, an in-silico study was conducted to quantify the potential benefits of introducing CGM devices into the intensive care unit (ICU). Mathematical models of CGM error characteristics were implemented with existing, clinically validated, models of the insulin-glucose regulatory system, to simulate the behaviour of CGM devices in critically ill patients. An alarm algorithm was also incorporated to provide a warning at the onset of predicted hypoglycaemia, allowing a virtual dextrose intervention to be administered as a preventative measure. The results of the in-silico study showed a potential reduction in nurse workload of approximately 75% and a significant reduction in hypoglycaemia, while also providing insight into the optimal rescue dose size and resulting dynamics of glucose recovery. During 2012, ten patients were recruited into a pilot clinical trial of CGM devices in critical care with a primary goal of assessing the reliability of CGM devices in this environment, with a specific interest in the effects of CGM device type and sensor site on sensor glucose (SG) data. Results showed the mean absolute relative difference of SG data across the cohort was between 12-24% and CGM devices were capable of monitoring some patients with a high degree of accuracy. However, certain illnesses, drugs and therapies can potentially affect sensor performance, and one particular set of results suggested severe oedema may have affected sensor performance. A novel and first of its kind metric, the Trend Compass was developed and used to assesses trend accuracy of SG in a mathematically precise fashion without approximation, and, importantly, does so independent of glucose level or sensor bias, unlike any other such metrics. In this analysis, the trend accuracy between CGM devices was typically good. A recent hypothesis suggesting that glucose complexity is associated with mortality was also investigated using the clinical CGM data. The results showed that complexity results from detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) were influenced far more by CGM device type than patient outcome. In addition, the location of CGM sensors had no significant effect on complexity results in this data set. Thus, while this emerging analytical method has shown positive results in the literature, this analysis indicates that those results may be misleading given the impact of technology outweighing that of physiology. This particular result helps to further delineate the range of potential applications and insight that CGM devices might offer in this clinical scenario. In critically ill infants, CGM devices were used to investigate hypoglycaemia during the first 48 hours after birth. More than 50 CGM data sets were obtained from several studies of CGM in infants at risk of hypoglycaemia at the Waikato hospital neonatal ICU (NICU). In light of concerns regarding CGM accuracy, particularly during the first few hours of monitoring and/or at low BG levels, an alternative, novel calibration scheme was developed to increase the reliability of SG data. The recalibration algorithm maximised the value of very accurate calibration BG measurements from a blood gas analyser (BGA), by forcing SG data to pass through these calibration BG measurements. Recalibration increased all metrics of hypoglycaemia (number, duration, severity and hypoglycaemic index) as the factory CGM calibration was found to be reporting higher values at low BG levels due to its least squares calibration approach based on the assumption of a less accurate calibration glucose meter. Thus, this research defined new calibration methods to directly optimise the use of CGM devices in this clinical environment, where accurate reference BG measurements are available. Furthermore, this work showed that metrics such as duration or area under curve were far more robust to error than the typically used counted-incidence metrics, indicating how clinical assessment may have to change when using these devices. The impact of errors in calibration measurements on metrics used to classify hypoglycaemia was also assessed. Across the cohort, measurement error, particularly measurement bias, had a larger effect on hypoglycaemia metrics than delays in entering calibration measurements. However, for patients with highly variable glycaemia, timing error can have a significantly larger impact on output SG data than measurement error. Unusual episodes of hypoglycaemia could be successfully identified using a stochastic model, based on kernel density estimation, providing another level of information to aid decision making when assessing hypoglycaemia. Using the developed algorithms/tools, with CGM data from 161 infants, the incidence of hypoglycaemia was assessed and compared to results determined using BG measurements alone. Results from BG measurements showed that ~17% of BG measurements identified hypoglycaemia and over 80% of episodes occurred in the first day after birth. However, with concurrent BG and SG data available, the SG data consistently identified hypoglycaemia at a higher rate suggesting the BG measurements were not capturing some episodes. Duration of hypoglycaemia in SG data varied from 0-10+%, but was typically in the range 4-6%. Hypoglycaemia occurred most frequently on the first day after birth and an optimal measurement protocol for at risk infants would likely involve CGM for the first week after birth with frequent intermittent BG measurements for the first day. Overall, CGM devices have the potential to increase the understanding of certain glycaemic abnormalities and aid in the diagnosis/treatment of other conditions in critically ill patients. This research has used a range of prospective and retrospective clinical studies to develop methods to further optimise the use of CGM devices within the critically ill clinical environment, as well as delineating where they are less useful or less robust. These latter results clearly define areas where clinical practice needs to adapt when using these devices, as well as areas where device makers could target technological improvements for best effect. Although further investigations are required before these devices are regularly implemented in day-to-day clinical practice, as an observational tool they are capable of providing useful information that is not currently available with conventional intermittent BG monitoring

The Impact of Parameter Identification Methods on Drug Therapy Control in an Intensive Care Unit

This paper investigates the impact of fast parameter identification methods, which do not require any forward simulations, on model-based glucose control, using retrospective data in the Christchurch Hospital Intensive Care Unit. The integral-based identification method has been previously clinically validated and extensively applied in a number of biomedical applications; and is a crucial element in the presented model-based therapeutics approach. Common non-linear regression and gradient descent approaches are too computationally intense and not suitable for the glucose control applications presented. The main focus in this paper is on better characterizing and understanding the importance of the integral in the formulation and the effect it has on model-based drug therapy control. As a comparison, a potentially more natural derivative formulation which has the same computation speed advantages is investigated, and is shown to go unstable with respect to modelling error which is always present clinically. The integral method remains robust

“Smart” Continuous Glucose Monitoring Sensors: On-Line Signal Processing Issues

The availability of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors allows development of new strategies for the treatment of diabetes. In particular, from an on-line perspective, CGM sensors can become “smart” by providing them with algorithms able to generate alerts when glucose concentration is predicted to exceed the normal range thresholds. To do so, at least four important aspects have to be considered and dealt with on-line. First, the CGM data must be accurately calibrated. Then, CGM data need to be filtered in order to enhance their signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Thirdly, predictions of future glucose concentration should be generated with suitable modeling methodologies. Finally, generation of alerts should be done by minimizing the risk of detecting false and missing true events. For these four challenges, several techniques, with various degrees of sophistication, have been proposed in the literature and are critically reviewed in this paper

Continuous glucose monitoring sensors: Past, present and future algorithmic challenges

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors are portable devices that allow measuring and visualizing the glucose concentration in real time almost continuously for several days and are provided with hypo/hyperglycemic alerts and glucose trend information. CGM sensors have revolutionized Type 1 diabetes (T1D) management, improving glucose control when used adjunctively to self-monitoring blood glucose systems. Furthermore, CGM devices have stimulated the development of applications that were impossible to create without a continuous-time glucose signal, e.g., real-time predictive alerts of hypo/hyperglycemic episodes based on the prediction of future glucose concentration, automatic basal insulin attenuation methods for hypoglycemia prevention, and the artificial pancreas. However, CGM sensors’ lack of accuracy and reliability limited their usability in the clinical practice, calling upon the academic community for the development of suitable signal processing methods to improve CGM performance. The aim of this paper is to review the past and present algorithmic challenges of CGM sensors, to show how they have been tackled by our research group, and to identify the possible future ones

An adaptive real-time intelligent system to enhance self-care of chronic disease (ARISES)

Diabetes mellitus is an increasingly prevalent chronic metabolic condition characterised by impaired glucose homeostasis and raised blood glucose levels (hyperglycaemia). Broadly categorised as either type 1 (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes (T2DM), people with diabetes are largely responsible for self-managing their blood glucose levels. Despite the development of diabetes technologies such as real time continuous glucose monitoring (RT-CGM), many individuals are frequently exposed to iatrogenic low blood glucose levels (hypoglycaemia). Severe hypoglycaemia is associated with an increased risk of recurrent hypoglycaemia, impaired symptomatic awareness of hypoglycaemia, and potentially death if left untreated. This thesis affirmed the existing clinical impact of severe hypoglycaemia and its recurrent risk in a six-month analysis of severe hypoglycaemia attended by the London Ambulance Service NHS Trust (LAS). Fewer incidents of severe hypoglycaemia observed in a date matched repeat analysis during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown suggested improved self-management possibly motivated by a proximal fear of hospitalisation and improved structure at home. Finally, a 12-week randomised control trial demonstrating a significant difference in time spent in hypoglycaemia <3mmol/L, is the first study to prove the immediate provision of RT-CGM significantly reduces the risk of recurrent hypoglycaemia. Moreover, it highlighted the impact of socioeconomic disparity as a barrier to effective hypoglycaemia risk modification. This guided the design of an adaptive real time intelligent system to enhance self-care of chronic disease (ARISES) aimed to deliver therapeutic and lifestyle decision support for people with T1DM. The ARISES graphic user interface (GUI) design was a collaborative process conceived in a series of focus group meetings including people with T1DM. Finally, a 12-week observational study using RT-CGM, a physiological sensor wristband, and a mobile diary app, allowed for a sub-analysis identifying measurable physiological parameters associated with current and impending hypoglycaemia in people with T1DM.Open Acces

Next-generation, personalised, model-based critical care medicine : a state-of-the art review of in silico virtual patient models, methods, and cohorts, and how to validation them

© 2018 The Author(s). Critical care, like many healthcare areas, is under a dual assault from significantly increasing demographic and economic pressures. Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are highly variable in response to treatment, and increasingly aging populations mean ICUs are under increasing demand and their cohorts are increasingly ill. Equally, patient expectations are growing, while the economic ability to deliver care to all is declining. Better, more productive care is thus the big challenge. One means to that end is personalised care designed to manage the significant inter- and intra-patient variability that makes the ICU patient difficult. Thus, moving from current "one size fits all" protocolised care to adaptive, model-based "one method fits all" personalised care could deliver the required step change in the quality, and simultaneously the productivity and cost, of care. Computer models of human physiology are a unique tool to personalise care, as they can couple clinical data with mathematical methods to create subject-specific models and virtual patients to design new, personalised and more optimal protocols, as well as to guide care in real-time. They rely on identifying time varying patient-specific parameters in the model that capture inter- and intra-patient variability, the difference between patients and the evolution of patient condition. Properly validated, virtual patients represent the real patients, and can be used in silico to test different protocols or interventions, or in real-time to guide care. Hence, the underlying models and methods create the foundation for next generation care, as well as a tool for safely and rapidly developing personalised treatment protocols over large virtual cohorts using virtual trials. This review examines the models and methods used to create virtual patients. Specifically, it presents the models types and structures used and the data required. It then covers how to validate the resulting virtual patients and trials, and how these virtual trials can help design and optimise clinical trial. Links between these models and higher order, more complex physiome models are also discussed. In each section, it explores the progress reported up to date, especially on core ICU therapies in glycemic, circulatory and mechanical ventilation management, where high cost and frequency of occurrence provide a significant opportunity for model-based methods to have measurable clinical and economic impact. The outcomes are readily generalised to other areas of medical care

The use of reinforcement learning algorithms to meet the challenges of an artificial pancreas

Blood glucose control, for example, in diabetes mellitus or severe illness, requires strict adherence to a protocol of food, insulin administration and exercise personalized to each patient. An artificial pancreas for automated treatment could boost quality of glucose control and patients' independence. The components required for an artificial pancreas are: i) continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), ii) smart controllers and iii) insulin pumps delivering the optimal amount of insulin. In recent years, medical devices for CGM and insulin administration have undergone rapid progression and are now commercially available. Yet, clinically available devices still require regular patients' or caregivers' attention as they operate in open-loop control with frequent user intervention. Dosage-calculating algorithms are currently being studied in intensive care patients [1] , for short overnight control to supplement conventional insulin delivery [2] , and for short periods where patients rest and follow a prescribed food regime [3] . Fully automated algorithms that can respond to the varying activity levels seen in outpatients, with unpredictable and unreported food intake, and which provide the necessary personalized control for individuals is currently beyond the state-of-the-art. Here, we review and discuss reinforcement learning algorithms, controlling insulin in a closed-loop to provide individual insulin dosing regimens that are reactive to the immediate needs of the patient

Dynamic modelling of blood glucose concentration in people with type 1 diabetes

The behaviour of blood glucose concentration (BGC) in free living conditions is not well understood in people with type 1 diabetes; in particular, the effect of different types of activity experienced in everyday life has not been fully investigated. Better understanding of the effect of major disturbances to BGC can improve treatment regimes and delay or prevent complications associated with diabetes. The current research investigates approaches to modelling BGC, based on blood glucose, physical activity, food and insulin data collected from a Diabetes UK study. Exploratory analysis of the study data found that BGC is non-stationary and exhibits strong autocorrelation, which varies among and within individuals. Analysis of BGC in the frequency domain also highlights indistinct low-frequency periodicities. However, BGC measurements alone are not enough to predict BGC over several hours using autoregressive models. Dynamic linear models are used to model BGC empirically using inputs from measured physical activity, and estimates of glucose and insulin absorption after food intake and injections, respectively, derived from physiological models in the literature. Dynamic linear models are used for parameter learning and predicting BGC over several hours: the models show some capability for predicting BGC for up to one hour, in particular highlighting periods of low and high BGC, but parameter estimates do not comply with established physiological knowledge. A new semi-empirical compartmental model is developed to impose a structure that incorporates well established physiology. A set of differential equations are converted into a probabilistic Bayesian framework, suitable for simultaneous, model-wide parameter estimation and prediction. A simulation study is conducted to determine the feasibility of using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods as a means for parameter estimation, and test performance in the predictive space. The methods show an ability to estimate a subset of the parameters simultaneously with good coverage, robustness to parameter misspecification, and insensitivity to specification of prior distributions. The current research represents a new paradigm for analysing mathematical models of BGC, and highlights important practical and theoretical issues not previously addressed in the quest for an artificial pancreas as treatment for type 1 diabetes