Statistical Methods for the Qualitative Assessment of Dynamic Models with Time Delay (R Package qualV)

Results of ecological models differ, to some extent, more from measured data than from empirical knowledge. Existing techniques for validation based on quantitative assessments sometimes cause an underestimation of the performance of models due to time shifts, accelerations and delays or systematic differences between measurement and simulation. However, for the application of such models it is often more important to reproduce essential patterns instead of seemingly exact numerical values. This paper presents techniques to identify patterns and numerical methods to measure the consistency of patterns between observations and model results. An orthogonal set of deviance measures for absolute, relative and ordinal scale was compiled to provide informations about the type of difference. Furthermore, two different approaches accounting for time shifts were presented. The first one transforms the time to take time delays and speed differences into account. The second one describes known qualitative criteria dividing time series into interval units in accordance to their main features. The methods differ in their basic concepts and in the form of the resulting criteria. Both approaches and the deviance measures discussed are implemented in an R package. All methods are demonstrated by means of water quality measurements and simulation data. The proposed quality criteria allow to recognize systematic differences and time shifts between time series and to conclude about the quantitative and qualitative similarity of patterns.

Spectral Simplicity of Apparent Complexity, Part I: The Nondiagonalizable Metadynamics of Prediction

Virtually all questions that one can ask about the behavioral and structural complexity of a stochastic process reduce to a linear algebraic framing of a time evolution governed by an appropriate hidden-Markov process generator. Each type of question---correlation, predictability, predictive cost, observer synchronization, and the like---induces a distinct generator class. Answers are then functions of the class-appropriate transition dynamic. Unfortunately, these dynamics are generically nonnormal, nondiagonalizable, singular, and so on. Tractably analyzing these dynamics relies on adapting the recently introduced meromorphic functional calculus, which specifies the spectral decomposition of functions of nondiagonalizable linear operators, even when the function poles and zeros coincide with the operator's spectrum. Along the way, we establish special properties of the projection operators that demonstrate how they capture the organization of subprocesses within a complex system. Circumventing the spurious infinities of alternative calculi, this leads in the sequel, Part II, to the first closed-form expressions for complexity measures, couched either in terms of the Drazin inverse (negative-one power of a singular operator) or the eigenvalues and projection operators of the appropriate transition dynamic.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables; current version always at http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/sdscpt1.ht

ABC of multi-fractal spacetimes and fractional sea turtles

We clarify what it means to have a spacetime fractal geometry in quantum gravity and show that its properties differ from those of usual fractals. A weak and a strong definition of multi-scale and multi-fractal spacetimes are given together with a sketch of the landscape of multi-scale theories of gravitation. Then, in the context of the fractional theory with $q$-derivatives, we explore the consequences of living in a multi-fractal spacetime. To illustrate the behavior of a non-relativistic body, we take the entertaining example of a sea turtle. We show that, when only the time direction is fractal, sea turtles swim at a faster speed than in an ordinary world, while they swim at a slower speed if only the spatial directions are fractal. The latter type of geometry is the one most commonly found in quantum gravity. For time-like fractals, relativistic objects can exceed the speed of light, but strongly so only if their size is smaller than the range of particle-physics interactions. We also find new results about log-oscillating measures, the measure presentation and their role in physical observations and in future extensions to nowhere-differentiable stochastic spacetimes.Comment: 20 pages, 1 figure. v2: typos corrected, minor improvements of the tex

Cortical spatio-temporal dimensionality reduction for visual grouping

The visual systems of many mammals, including humans, is able to integrate the geometric information of visual stimuli and to perform cognitive tasks already at the first stages of the cortical processing. This is thought to be the result of a combination of mechanisms, which include feature extraction at single cell level and geometric processing by means of cells connectivity. We present a geometric model of such connectivities in the space of detected features associated to spatio-temporal visual stimuli, and show how they can be used to obtain low-level object segmentation. The main idea is that of defining a spectral clustering procedure with anisotropic affinities over datasets consisting of embeddings of the visual stimuli into higher dimensional spaces. Neural plausibility of the proposed arguments will be discussed

FRACTAL GEOMETRY IN AGRICULTURAL CASH PRICE DYNAMICS

Agricultural prices are determined by natural and socio-economic factors that are known to be self-similar at different time scales and to follow non-periodic cyclical patterns. These properties are most easily understood using Mandelbrot's fractal geometry, in which a jagged time series is treated as a jagged coastline or any other natural phenomenon. The fractal market hypothesis provides the theory needed to explain why fractal structure exists in agricultural prices. Empirical evidence confirms theoretical predictions.Demand and Price Analysis,