Information and preference reversals in lotteries

Cataloged from PDF version of article.Several approaches have been proposed for evaluating information in expected utility theory. Among the most popular approaches are the expected utility increase, the selling price and the buying price. While the expected utility increase and the selling price always agree in ranking information alternatives, Hazen and Sounderpandian [11] have demonstrated that the buying price may not always agree with the other two. That is, in some cases, where the expected utility increase would value information A more highly than information B, the buying price may reverse these preferences. In this paper, we discuss the conditions under which all these approaches agree in a generic decision environment where the decision maker may choose to acquire arbitrary information bundles. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Preference reversal in quantum decision theory

We consider the psychological effect of preference reversal and show that it finds a natural explanation in the frame of quantum decision theory. When people choose between lotteries with non-negative payoffs, they prefer a more certain lottery because of uncertainty aversion. But when people evaluate lottery prices, e.g. for selling to others the right to play them, they do this more rationally, being less subject to behavioral biases. This difference can be explained by the presence of the attraction factors entering the expression of quantum probabilities. Only the existence of attraction factors can explain why, considering two lotteries with close utility factors, a decision maker prefers one of them when choosing, but evaluates higher the other one when pricing. We derive a general quantitative criterion for the preference reversal to occur that relates the utilities of the two lotteries to the attraction factors under choosing versus pricing and test successfully its application on experiments by Tversky et al. We also show that the planning paradox can be treated as a kind of preference reversal.Comment: Latex file, 15 page

Repeated Rounds with Price Feedback in Experimental Auction Valuation: An Adversarial Collaboration

It is generally thought that market outcomes are improved with the provision of market information. As a result, the use of repeated rounds with price feedback has become standard practice in the applied experimental auction valuation literature. We conducted two experiments to determine how rationally subjects behave with and without price feedback in a second price auction. Results from an auction for lotteries show that subjects exposed to price feedback are significantly more likely to commit preference reversals. However, this irrationality diminishes in later rounds. Results from an induced value auction indicate that price feedback caused greater deviations from the Nash equilibrium bidding strategy. Our results suggest that while bidding on the same item repeatedly improves auction outcomes, this improvement is not the result of price feedback

Income Distributions versus Lotteries Happiness, Response-Mode Effects, and Preference

This paper provides a comparative experimental study of risky prospects (lotteries) and income distributions. The experimental design consisted of multi?outcome lotteries and n?dimensional income distributions arranged in the shapes of ten distributions which were judged in terms of ratings and valuations, respectively. Material incentives applied. We found heavy response?mode effects, which cause inconsistent behavior between rating and valuation of lotteries and income distributions in more than 50% of all cases. This means that ethical inequality measures lack support in peoples? perceptions. In addition to classical preference reversals between generalized P?bets and $?bets we observed three additional patterns of preference reversal, two of which apply only to income distributions. Dominating Lorenz curves and Lorenz curves cutting others from below receive decidedly higher ratings (which implies risk and inequality aversion), but lower valuations. The transfer principle is largely violated. The rating of lotteries is a decreasing function of skewness, the rating of income distributions is a decreasing function of standard deviation. The valuation of lotteries is an increasing function of standard deviation and kurtosis, and the valuation of income distributions is an increasing function of standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. --Income Distribution,Lotteries,Income Happiness,Inequality and Risk Aversion,Ethical Inequality Measures,Preference Reversal

Stronger Utility

Empirical research often requires a method how to convert a deterministic economic theory into an econometric model. A popular method is to add a random error term on the utility scale. This method, however, violates stochastic dominance. A modification of this method is proposed to avoid violations of dominance. The modified model compares favorably to other existing models in terms of goodness of fit to experimental data. The modified model can rationalize the preference reversal phenomenon. An intuitive axiomatic characterization of the modified model is provided. Important microeconomic concept of risk aversion is well-defined in the modified model.Decision Theory, Probabilistic Choice, Stochastic Dominance, Strong Utility, Risk Aversion

Preference Reversal, Real-World Lotteries, and Lottery-Interested Subjects

Preference reversal, or choice/reservation-price inconsistency, has been documented experimentally for certain types of lotteries. We argue that the relevance of these findings for real-world markets is uncertain because the type of objects used cannot exist on a market and because the extent to which the subjects had any real interest in the objects is unknown. Using real-world lotteries, we have tested choice/price consistency on subjects who prefer lotteries to cash. Preference reversal was observed, but the frequency was much lower than in earlier experiments. There were no differences between subjects who qualify as ""lottery interested"" and those who did not.

Some Issues of Methods, Theories, and Experimental Designs

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When Judgments and Preferences Fail to Conform: Research on Preference Reversals for Product Purchases

In this paper, the preference reversal phenomenon known from risk research is investigated according to which subjects prefer gamble A over B in competitive decisions although they reveal higher valuations in terms of a cash equivalent (CE) or a willingness to pay (WTP) for the latter when gambles are assessed separately in monadic judgments. In contrast to the experimental settings of research on risky choices, our studies observed unforced and binding purchase decisions of experienced consumers between real products in natural shopping environments. Results confirm robustness of preference reversals in risk-free purchase decisions indicating that orderings of product preferences reverse significantly between evaluations in monadic and competitive designs. While recent pricing research has been largely focused on monadic designs and suggested BDM mechanisms or second-price auctions for elicitations of consumers’ true willingness to pay, results of our studies indicate a substantial discrepancy between preference orders based on monadic judgments and preferences that consumers reveal in competitive purchase decisions.Preference Reversals, Willingness to Pay, Monadic Designs, Competitive Designs, Pricing Research, Procedure Invariance

Reasons and Means to Model Preferences as Incomplete

Literature involving preferences of artificial agents or human beings often assume their preferences can be represented using a complete transitive binary relation. Much has been written however on different models of preferences. We review some of the reasons that have been put forward to justify more complex modeling, and review some of the techniques that have been proposed to obtain models of such preferences