19,893 research outputs found
Uncovering the Temporal Dynamics of Diffusion Networks
Time plays an essential role in the diffusion of information, influence and
disease over networks. In many cases we only observe when a node copies
information, makes a decision or becomes infected -- but the connectivity,
transmission rates between nodes and transmission sources are unknown.
Inferring the underlying dynamics is of outstanding interest since it enables
forecasting, influencing and retarding infections, broadly construed. To this
end, we model diffusion processes as discrete networks of continuous temporal
processes occurring at different rates. Given cascade data -- observed
infection times of nodes -- we infer the edges of the global diffusion network
and estimate the transmission rates of each edge that best explain the observed
data. The optimization problem is convex. The model naturally (without
heuristics) imposes sparse solutions and requires no parameter tuning. The
problem decouples into a collection of independent smaller problems, thus
scaling easily to networks on the order of hundreds of thousands of nodes.
Experiments on real and synthetic data show that our algorithm both recovers
the edges of diffusion networks and accurately estimates their transmission
rates from cascade data.Comment: To appear in the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning
(ICML), 2011. Website: http://www.stanford.edu/~manuelgr/netrate
On the Convexity of Latent Social Network Inference
In many real-world scenarios, it is nearly impossible to collect explicit
social network data. In such cases, whole networks must be inferred from
underlying observations. Here, we formulate the problem of inferring latent
social networks based on network diffusion or disease propagation data. We
consider contagions propagating over the edges of an unobserved social network,
where we only observe the times when nodes became infected, but not who
infected them. Given such node infection times, we then identify the optimal
network that best explains the observed data. We present a maximum likelihood
approach based on convex programming with a l1-like penalty term that
encourages sparsity. Experiments on real and synthetic data reveal that our
method near-perfectly recovers the underlying network structure as well as the
parameters of the contagion propagation model. Moreover, our approach scales
well as it can infer optimal networks of thousands of nodes in a matter of
minutes.Comment: NIPS, 201
Structure and Dynamics of Information Pathways in Online Media
Diffusion of information, spread of rumors and infectious diseases are all
instances of stochastic processes that occur over the edges of an underlying
network. Many times networks over which contagions spread are unobserved, and
such networks are often dynamic and change over time. In this paper, we
investigate the problem of inferring dynamic networks based on information
diffusion data. We assume there is an unobserved dynamic network that changes
over time, while we observe the results of a dynamic process spreading over the
edges of the network. The task then is to infer the edges and the dynamics of
the underlying network.
We develop an on-line algorithm that relies on stochastic convex optimization
to efficiently solve the dynamic network inference problem. We apply our
algorithm to information diffusion among 3.3 million mainstream media and blog
sites and experiment with more than 179 million different pieces of information
spreading over the network in a one year period. We study the evolution of
information pathways in the online media space and find interesting insights.
Information pathways for general recurrent topics are more stable across time
than for on-going news events. Clusters of news media sites and blogs often
emerge and vanish in matter of days for on-going news events. Major social
movements and events involving civil population, such as the Libyan's civil war
or Syria's uprise, lead to an increased amount of information pathways among
blogs as well as in the overall increase in the network centrality of blogs and
social media sites.Comment: To Appear at the 6th International Conference on Web Search and Data
Mining (WSDM '13
A Diffusion Network Event History Estimator
Research on the diffusion of political decisions across jurisdictions typically accounts for units’ influence over each other with (1) observable measures or (2) by inferring latent network ties from past decisions. The former approach assumes that interdependence is static and perfectly captured by the data. The latter mitigates these issues but requires analytical tools that are separate from the main empirical methods for studying diffusion. As a solution, we introduce network event history analysis (NEHA), which incorporates latent network inference into conventional discrete-time event history models. We demonstrate NEHA’s unique methodological and substantive benefits in applications to policy adoption in the American states. Researchers can analyze the ties and structure of inferred networks to refine model specifications, evaluate diffusion mechanisms, or test new or existing hypotheses. By capturing targeted relationships unexplained by standard covariates, NEHA can improve models, facilitate richer theoretical development, and permit novel analyses of the diffusion process
Learning user-specific latent influence and susceptibility from information cascades
Predicting cascade dynamics has important implications for understanding
information propagation and launching viral marketing. Previous works mainly
adopt a pair-wise manner, modeling the propagation probability between pairs of
users using n^2 independent parameters for n users. Consequently, these models
suffer from severe overfitting problem, specially for pairs of users without
direct interactions, limiting their prediction accuracy. Here we propose to
model the cascade dynamics by learning two low-dimensional user-specific
vectors from observed cascades, capturing their influence and susceptibility
respectively. This model requires much less parameters and thus could combat
overfitting problem. Moreover, this model could naturally model
context-dependent factors like cumulative effect in information propagation.
Extensive experiments on synthetic dataset and a large-scale microblogging
dataset demonstrate that this model outperforms the existing pair-wise models
at predicting cascade dynamics, cascade size, and "who will be retweeted".Comment: from The 29th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-2015
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