Adaptive inferential sensors based on evolving fuzzy models

A new technique to the design and use of inferential sensors in the process industry is proposed in this paper, which is based on the recently introduced concept of evolving fuzzy models (EFMs). They address the challenge that the modern process industry faces today, namely, to develop such adaptive and self-calibrating online inferential sensors that reduce the maintenance costs while keeping the high precision and interpretability/transparency. The proposed new methodology makes possible inferential sensors to recalibrate automatically, which reduces significantly the life-cycle efforts for their maintenance. This is achieved by the adaptive and flexible open-structure EFM used. The novelty of this paper lies in the following: (1) the overall concept of inferential sensors with evolving and self-developing structure from the data streams; (2) the new methodology for online automatic selection of input variables that are most relevant for the prediction; (3) the technique to detect automatically a shift in the data pattern using the age of the clusters (and fuzzy rules); (4) the online standardization technique used by the learning procedure of the evolving model; and (5) the application of this innovative approach to several real-life industrial processes from the chemical industry (evolving inferential sensors, namely, eSensors, were used for predicting the chemical properties of different products in The Dow Chemical Company, Freeport, TX). It should be noted, however, that the methodology and conclusions of this paper are valid for the broader area of chemical and process industries in general. The results demonstrate that well-interpretable and with-simple-structure inferential sensors can automatically be designed from the data stream in real time, which predict various process variables of interest. The proposed approach can be used as a basis for the development of a new generation of adaptive and evolving inferential sensors that can a- ddress the challenges of the modern advanced process industry

Construction of a support tool for the design of the activity structures based computer system architectures

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University.This thesis is a reapproachment of diverse design concepts, brought to bear upon the computer system engineering problem of identification and control of highly constrained multiprocessing (HCM) computer machines. It contributes to the area of meta/general systems methodology, and brings a new insight into the design formalisms, and results afforded by bringing together various design concepts that can be used for the construction of highly constrained computer system architectures. A unique point of view is taken by assuming the process of identification and control of HCM computer systems to be the process generated by the Activity Structures Methodology (ASM). The research in ASM has emerged from the Neuroscience research, aiming at providing the techniques for combining the diverse knowledge sources that capture the 'deep knowledge' of this application field in an effective formal and computer representable form. To apply the ASM design guidelines in the realm of the distributed computer system design, we provide new design definitions for the identification and control of such machines in terms of realisations. These realisation definitions characterise the various classes of the identification and control problem. The classes covered consist of: 1. the identification of the designer activities, 2. the identification and control of the machine's distributed structures of behaviour, 3. the identification and control of the conversational environment activities (i.e. the randomised/ adaptive activities and interactions of both the user and the machine environments), 4. the identification and control of the substrata needed for the realisation of the machine, and 5. the identification of the admissible design data, both user-oriented and machineoriented, that can force the conversational environment to act in a self-regulating manner. All extent results are considered in this context, allowing the development of both necessary conditions for machine identification in terms of their distributed behaviours as well as the substrata structures of the unknown machine and sufficient conditions in terms of experiments on the unknown machine to achieve the self-regulation behaviour. We provide a detailed description of the design and implementation of the support software tool which can be used for aiding the process of constructing effective, HCM computer systems, based on various classes of identification and control. The design data of a highly constrained system, the NUKE, are used to verify the tool logic as well as the various identification and control procedures. Possible extensions as well as future work implied by the results are considered.Government of Ira

The 'what' and 'how' of learning in design, invited paper

Previous experiences hold a wealth of knowledge which we often take for granted and use unknowingly through our every day working lives. In design, those experiences can play a crucial role in the success or failure of a design project, having a great deal of influence on the quality, cost and development time of a product. But how can we empower computer based design systems to acquire this knowledge? How would we use such systems to support design? This paper outlines some of the work which has been carried out in applying and developing Machine Learning techniques to support the design activity; particularly in utilising previous designs and learning the design process

Exploiting Qualitative Information for Decision Support in Scenario Analysis

The development of scenario analysis (SA) to assist decision makers and stakeholders has been growing over the last few years through mainly exploiting qualitative information provided by experts. In this study, we present SA based on the use of qualitative data for strategy planning. We discuss the potential of SA as a decision-support tool, and provide a structured approach for the interpretation of SA data, and an empirical validation of expert evaluations that can help to measure the consistency of the analysis. An application to a specific case study is provided, with reference to the European organic farming business

In defense of mechanism

In Life Itself and in Essays on Life Itself, Robert Rosen (1991, 2000) argued that machines were, in principle, incapable of modeling the defining feature of living systems, which he claimed to be the existence of closed causal loops. Rosen's argument has been used to support critiques of computational models in ecological psychology. This article shows that Rosen's attack on mechanism is fundamentally misconceived. It is, in fact, of the essence of a mechanical system that it contains closed causal loops. Moreover, Rosen's epistemology is based on a strong form of indirect realism and his arguments, if correct, would call into question some of the fundamental principles of ecological psychology

Julian Ernst Besag, 26 March 1945 -- 6 August 2010, a biographical memoir

Julian Besag was an outstanding statistical scientist, distinguished for his pioneering work on the statistical theory and analysis of spatial processes, especially conditional lattice systems. His work has been seminal in statistical developments over the last several decades ranging from image analysis to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. He clarified the role of auto-logistic and auto-normal models as instances of Markov random fields and paved the way for their use in diverse applications. Later work included investigations into the efficacy of nearest neighbour models to accommodate spatial dependence in the analysis of data from agricultural field trials, image restoration from noisy data, and texture generation using lattice models.Comment: 26 pages, 14 figures; minor revisions, omission of full bibliograph

Advanced Knowledge Technologies at the Midterm: Tools and Methods for the Semantic Web

The University of Edinburgh and research sponsors are authorised to reproduce and distribute reprints and on-line copies for their purposes notwithstanding any copyright annotation hereon. The views and conclusions contained herein are the author’s and shouldn’t be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of other parties.In a celebrated essay on the new electronic media, Marshall McLuhan wrote in 1962:Our private senses are not closed systems but are endlessly translated into each other in that experience which we call consciousness. Our extended senses, tools, technologies, through the ages, have been closed systems incapable of interplay or collective awareness. Now, in the electric age, the very instantaneous nature of co-existence among our technological instruments has created a crisis quite new in human history. Our extended faculties and senses now constitute a single field of experience which demands that they become collectively conscious. Our technologies, like our private senses, now demand an interplay and ratio that makes rational co-existence possible. As long as our technologies were as slow as the wheel or the alphabet or money, the fact that they were separate, closed systems was socially and psychically supportable. This is not true now when sight and sound and movement are simultaneous and global in extent. (McLuhan 1962, p.5, emphasis in original)Over forty years later, the seamless interplay that McLuhan demanded between our technologies is still barely visible. McLuhan’s predictions of the spread, and increased importance, of electronic media have of course been borne out, and the worlds of business, science and knowledge storage and transfer have been revolutionised. Yet the integration of electronic systems as open systems remains in its infancy.Advanced Knowledge Technologies (AKT) aims to address this problem, to create a view of knowledge and its management across its lifecycle, to research and create the services and technologies that such unification will require. Half way through its sixyear span, the results are beginning to come through, and this paper will explore some of the services, technologies and methodologies that have been developed. We hope to give a sense in this paper of the potential for the next three years, to discuss the insights and lessons learnt in the first phase of the project, to articulate the challenges and issues that remain.The WWW provided the original context that made the AKT approach to knowledge management (KM) possible. AKT was initially proposed in 1999, it brought together an interdisciplinary consortium with the technological breadth and complementarity to create the conditions for a unified approach to knowledge across its lifecycle. The combination of this expertise, and the time and space afforded the consortium by the IRC structure, suggested the opportunity for a concerted effort to develop an approach to advanced knowledge technologies, based on the WWW as a basic infrastructure.The technological context of AKT altered for the better in the short period between the development of the proposal and the beginning of the project itself with the development of the semantic web (SW), which foresaw much more intelligent manipulation and querying of knowledge. The opportunities that the SW provided for e.g., more intelligent retrieval, put AKT in the centre of information technology innovation and knowledge management services; the AKT skill set would clearly be central for the exploitation of those opportunities.The SW, as an extension of the WWW, provides an interesting set of constraints to the knowledge management services AKT tries to provide. As a medium for the semantically-informed coordination of information, it has suggested a number of ways in which the objectives of AKT can be achieved, most obviously through the provision of knowledge management services delivered over the web as opposed to the creation and provision of technologies to manage knowledge.AKT is working on the assumption that many web services will be developed and provided for users. The KM problem in the near future will be one of deciding which services are needed and of coordinating them. Many of these services will be largely or entirely legacies of the WWW, and so the capabilities of the services will vary. As well as providing useful KM services in their own right, AKT will be aiming to exploit this opportunity, by reasoning over services, brokering between them, and providing essential meta-services for SW knowledge service management.Ontologies will be a crucial tool for the SW. The AKT consortium brings a lot of expertise on ontologies together, and ontologies were always going to be a key part of the strategy. All kinds of knowledge sharing and transfer activities will be mediated by ontologies, and ontology management will be an important enabling task. Different applications will need to cope with inconsistent ontologies, or with the problems that will follow the automatic creation of ontologies (e.g. merging of pre-existing ontologies to create a third). Ontology mapping, and the elimination of conflicts of reference, will be important tasks. All of these issues are discussed along with our proposed technologies.Similarly, specifications of tasks will be used for the deployment of knowledge services over the SW, but in general it cannot be expected that in the medium term there will be standards for task (or service) specifications. The brokering metaservices that are envisaged will have to deal with this heterogeneity.The emerging picture of the SW is one of great opportunity but it will not be a wellordered, certain or consistent environment. It will comprise many repositories of legacy data, outdated and inconsistent stores, and requirements for common understandings across divergent formalisms. There is clearly a role for standards to play to bring much of this context together; AKT is playing a significant role in these efforts. But standards take time to emerge, they take political power to enforce, and they have been known to stifle innovation (in the short term). AKT is keen to understand the balance between principled inference and statistical processing of web content. Logical inference on the Web is tough. Complex queries using traditional AI inference methods bring most distributed computer systems to their knees. Do we set up semantically well-behaved areas of the Web? Is any part of the Web in which semantic hygiene prevails interesting enough to reason in? These and many other questions need to be addressed if we are to provide effective knowledge technologies for our content on the web

Discovering the Impact of Knowledge in Recommender Systems: A Comparative Study

Recommender systems engage user profiles and appropriate filtering techniques to assist users in finding more relevant information over the large volume of information. User profiles play an important role in the success of recommendation process since they model and represent the actual user needs. However, a comprehensive literature review of recommender systems has demonstrated no concrete study on the role and impact of knowledge in user profiling and filtering approache. In this paper, we review the most prominent recommender systems in the literature and examine the impression of knowledge extracted from different sources. We then come up with this finding that semantic information from the user context has substantial impact on the performance of knowledge based recommender systems. Finally, some new clues for improvement the knowledge-based profiles have been proposed.Comment: 14 pages, 3 tables; International Journal of Computer Science & Engineering Survey (IJCSES) Vol.2, No.3, August 201