Implicit ODE solvers with good local error control for the transient analysis of Markov models

Obtaining the transient probability distribution vector of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) using an implicit ordinary differential equation (ODE) solver tends to be advantageous in terms of run-time computational cost when the product of the maximum output rate of the CTMC and the largest time of interest is large. In this paper, we show that when applied to the transient analysis of CTMCs, many implicit ODE solvers are such that the linear systems involved in their steps can be solved by using iterative methods with strict control of the 1-norm of the error. This allows the development of implementations of those ODE solvers for the transient analysis of CTMCs that can be more efficient and more accurate than more standard implementations.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Bounding the Equilibrium Distribution of Markov Population Models

Arguing about the equilibrium distribution of continuous-time Markov chains can be vital for showing properties about the underlying systems. For example in biological systems, bistability of a chemical reaction network can hint at its function as a biological switch. Unfortunately, the state space of these systems is infinite in most cases, preventing the use of traditional steady state solution techniques. In this paper we develop a new approach to tackle this problem by first retrieving geometric bounds enclosing a major part of the steady state probability mass, followed by a more detailed analysis revealing state-wise bounds.Comment: 4 page

Approximation of event probabilities in noisy cellular processes

Molecular noise, which arises from the randomness of the discrete events in the cell, significantly influences fundamental biological processes. Discrete-state continuous-time stochastic models (CTMC) can be used to describe such effects, but the calculation of the probabilities of certain events is computationally expensive. We present a comparison of two analysis approaches for CTMC. On one hand, we estimate the probabilities of interest using repeated Gillespie simulation and determine the statistical accuracy that we obtain. On the other hand, we apply a numerical reachability analysis that approximates the probability distributions of the system at several time instances. We use examples of cellular processes to demonstrate the superiority of the reachability analysis if accurate results are required

Solving the chemical master equation using sliding windows

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The chemical master equation (CME) is a system of ordinary differential equations that describes the evolution of a network of chemical reactions as a stochastic process. Its solution yields the probability density vector of the system at each point in time. Solving the CME numerically is in many cases computationally expensive or even infeasible as the number of reachable states can be very large or infinite. We introduce the sliding window method, which computes an approximate solution of the CME by performing a sequence of local analysis steps. In each step, only a manageable subset of states is considered, representing a "window" into the state space. In subsequent steps, the window follows the direction in which the probability mass moves, until the time period of interest has elapsed. We construct the window based on a deterministic approximation of the future behavior of the system by estimating upper and lower bounds on the populations of the chemical species.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In order to show the effectiveness of our approach, we apply it to several examples previously described in the literature. The experimental results show that the proposed method speeds up the analysis considerably, compared to a global analysis, while still providing high accuracy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The sliding window method is a novel approach to address the performance problems of numerical algorithms for the solution of the chemical master equation. The method efficiently approximates the probability distributions at the time points of interest for a variety of chemically reacting systems, including systems for which no upper bound on the population sizes of the chemical species is known a priori.</p

Lumpability Abstractions of Rule-based Systems

The induction of a signaling pathway is characterized by transient complex formation and mutual posttranslational modification of proteins. To faithfully capture this combinatorial process in a mathematical model is an important challenge in systems biology. Exploiting the limited context on which most binding and modification events are conditioned, attempts have been made to reduce the combinatorial complexity by quotienting the reachable set of molecular species, into species aggregates while preserving the deterministic semantics of the thermodynamic limit. Recently we proposed a quotienting that also preserves the stochastic semantics and that is complete in the sense that the semantics of individual species can be recovered from the aggregate semantics. In this paper we prove that this quotienting yields a sufficient condition for weak lumpability and that it gives rise to a backward Markov bisimulation between the original and aggregated transition system. We illustrate the framework on a case study of the EGF/insulin receptor crosstalk.Comment: In Proceedings MeCBIC 2010, arXiv:1011.005

Propagation Models for Biochemical Reaction Networks

In this thesis we investigate different ways of approximating the solution of the chemical master equation (CME). The CME is a system of differential equations that models the stochastic transient behaviour of biochemical reaction networks. It does so by describing the time evolution of probability distribution over the states of a Markov chain that represents a biological network, and thus its stochasticity is only implicit. The transient solution of a CME is the vector of probabilities over the states of the corresponding Markov chain at a certain time point t, and it has traditionally been obtained by applying methods that are general to continuous-time Markov chains: uniformization, Krylov subspace methods, and general ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers such as the fourth order Runge-Kutta method. Even though biochemical reaction networks are the main application of our work, some of our results are presented in the more general framework of propagation models (PM), a computational formalism that we introduce in the first part of this thesis. Each propagation model N has two associated propagation processes, one in discrete-time and a second one in continuous-time. These propagation processes propagate a generic mass through a discrete state space. For example, in order to model a CME, N propagates probability mass. In the discrete-time case the propagation is done step-wise, while in the continuous-time case it is done in a continuous flow defined by a differential equation. Again, in the case of the chemical master equation, this differential equation is the equivalent of the chemical master equation itself where probability mass is propagated through a discrete state space. Discrete-time propagation processes can encode methods such as the uniformization method and the fourth order Runge-Kutta integration method that we have mentioned above, and thus by optimizing propagation algorithms we optimize both of these methods simultaneously. In the second part of our thesis, we define stochastic hybrid models that approximate the stochastic behaviour of biochemical reaction networks by treating some variables of the system deterministically. This deterministic approximation is done for species with large populations, for which stochasticity does not play an important role. We propose three such hybrid models, which we introduce from the coarsest to the most refined one: (i) the first one replaces some variables of the system with their overall expectations, (ii) the second one replaces some variables of the system with their expectations conditioned on the values of the stochastic variables, (iii) and finally, the third one, splits each variable into a stochastic part (for low valuations) and a deterministic part (for high valuations), while tracking the conditional expectation of the deterministic part. For each of these algorithms we give the corresponding propagation models that propagate not only probabilities but also the respective continuous approximations for the deterministic variables

Model Reconstruction for Moment-based Stochastic Chemical Kinetics

Based on the theory of stochastic chemical kinetics, the inherent randomness and stochasticity of biochemical reaction networks can be accurately described by discrete-state continuous-time Markov chains. The analysis of such processes is, however, computationally expensive and sophisticated numerical methods are required. Here, we propose an analysis framework in which we integrate a number of moments of the process instead of the state probabilities. This results in a very efficient simulation of the time evolution of the process. In order to regain the state probabilities from the moment representation, we combine the fast moment-based simulation with a maximum entropy approach for the reconstruction of the underlying probability distribution. We investigate the usefulness of this combined approach in the setting of stochastic chemical kinetics and present numerical results for three reaction networks showing its efficiency and accuracy. Besides a simple dimerization system, we study a bistable switch system and a multi-attractor network with complex dynamics.Comment: 20 pages,5 figure