Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Nachweislich sichere Bewegungsplanung für autonome Fahrzeuge durch Echtzeitverifikation

This thesis introduces fail-safe motion planning as the first approach to guarantee legal safety of autonomous vehicles in arbitrary traffic situations. The proposed safety layer verifies whether intended trajectories comply with legal safety and provides fail-safe trajectories when intended trajectories result in safety-critical situations. The presented results indicate that the use of fail-safe motion planning can drastically reduce the number of traffic accidents.Die vorliegende Arbeit führt ein neuartiges Verifikationsverfahren ein, mit dessen Hilfe zum ersten Mal die verkehrsregelkonforme Sicherheit von autonomen Fahrzeugen gewährleistet werden kann. Das Verifikationsverfahren überprüft, ob geplante Trajektorien sicher sind und generiert Rückfalltrajektorien falls diese zu einer unsicheren Situation führen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Verwendung des Verfahrens zu einer deutlichen Reduktion von Verkehrsunfällen führt

Spatiotemporal Learning of Multivehicle Interaction Patterns in Lane-Change Scenarios

Interpretation of common-yet-challenging interaction scenarios can benefit well-founded decisions for autonomous vehicles. Previous research achieved this using their prior knowledge of specific scenarios with predefined models, limiting their adaptive capabilities. This paper describes a Bayesian nonparametric approach that leverages continuous (i.e., Gaussian processes) and discrete (i.e., Dirichlet processes) stochastic processes to reveal underlying interaction patterns of the ego vehicle with other nearby vehicles. Our model relaxes dependency on the number of surrounding vehicles by developing an acceleration-sensitive velocity field based on Gaussian processes. The experiment results demonstrate that the velocity field can represent the spatial interactions between the ego vehicle and its surroundings. Then, a discrete Bayesian nonparametric model, integrating Dirichlet processes and hidden Markov models, is developed to learn the interaction patterns over the temporal space by segmenting and clustering the sequential interaction data into interpretable granular patterns automatically. We then evaluate our approach in the highway lane-change scenarios using the highD dataset collected from real-world settings. Results demonstrate that our proposed Bayesian nonparametric approach provides an insight into the complicated lane-change interactions of the ego vehicle with multiple surrounding traffic participants based on the interpretable interaction patterns and their transition properties in temporal relationships. Our proposed approach sheds light on efficiently analyzing other kinds of multi-agent interactions, such as vehicle-pedestrian interactions. View the demos via https://youtu.be/z_vf9UHtdAM.Comment: for the supplements, see https://chengyuan-zhang.github.io/Multivehicle-Interaction

Topological Mapping and Navigation in Real-World Environments

We introduce the Hierarchical Hybrid Spatial Semantic Hierarchy (H2SSH), a hybrid topological-metric map representation. The H2SSH provides a more scalable representation of both small and large structures in the world than existing topological map representations, providing natural descriptions of a hallway lined with offices as well as a cluster of buildings on a college campus. By considering the affordances in the environment, we identify a division of space into three distinct classes: path segments afford travel between places at their ends, decision points present a choice amongst incident path segments, and destinations typically exist at the start and end of routes. Constructing an H2SSH map of the environment requires understanding both its local and global structure. We present a place detection and classification algorithm to create a semantic map representation that parses the free space in the local environment into a set of discrete areas representing features like corridors, intersections, and offices. Using these areas, we introduce a new probabilistic topological simultaneous localization and mapping algorithm based on lazy evaluation to estimate a probability distribution over possible topological maps of the global environment. After construction, an H2SSH map provides the necessary representations for navigation through large-scale environments. The local semantic map provides a high-fidelity metric map suitable for motion planning in dynamic environments, while the global topological map is a graph-like map that allows for route planning using simple graph search algorithms. For navigation, we have integrated the H2SSH with Model Predictive Equilibrium Point Control (MPEPC) to provide safe and efficient motion planning for our robotic wheelchair, Vulcan. However, navigation in human environments entails more than safety and efficiency, as human behavior is further influenced by complex cultural and social norms. We show how social norms for moving along corridors and through intersections can be learned by observing how pedestrians around the robot behave. We then integrate these learned norms with MPEPC to create a socially-aware navigation algorithm, SA-MPEPC. Through real-world experiments, we show how SA-MPEPC improves not only Vulcan’s adherence to social norms, but the adherence of pedestrians interacting with Vulcan as well.PHDComputer Science & EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144014/1/collinej_1.pd

Survey of maps of dynamics for mobile robots

Robotic mapping provides spatial information for autonomous agents. Depending on the tasks they seek to enable, the maps created range from simple 2D representations of the environment geometry to complex, multilayered semantic maps. This survey article is about maps of dynamics (MoDs), which store semantic information about typical motion patterns in a given environment. Some MoDs use trajectories as input, and some can be built from short, disconnected observations of motion. Robots can use MoDs, for example, for global motion planning, improved localization, or human motion prediction. Accounting for the increasing importance of maps of dynamics, we present a comprehensive survey that organizes the knowledge accumulated in the field and identifies promising directions for future work. Specifically, we introduce field-specific vocabulary, summarize existing work according to a novel taxonomy, and describe possible applications and open research problems. We conclude that the field is mature enough, and we expect that maps of dynamics will be increasingly used to improve robot performance in real-world use cases. At the same time, the field is still in a phase of rapid development where novel contributions could significantly impact this research area

Belief State Planning for Autonomous Driving: Planning with Interaction, Uncertain Prediction and Uncertain Perception

This work presents a behavior planning algorithm for automated driving in urban environments with an uncertain and dynamic nature. The algorithm allows to consider the prediction uncertainty (e.g. different intentions), perception uncertainty (e.g. occlusions) as well as the uncertain interactive behavior of the other agents explicitly. Simulating the most likely future scenarios allows to find an optimal policy online that enables non-conservative planning under uncertainty