Impulse Balance Equilibrium and Feedback in First Price Auctions

Experimental sealed-bid first-price auctions with private values in which feedback on the losing bids is provided yield lower revenues than auctions where this feedback is not given. The concept of weighted impulse balance equilibrium, which is based on a principle of ex post rationality and incorporates a concern for social comparison, captures the data.Auctions; Overbidding; Feedback; Experiments; Ex-post rationality; Bounded rationality; Social comparison

Individual Behavior of First-Price Sealed-Bid Auctions: The Importance of Information Feedback in Experimental Markets

This article reports the results of a first-price sealed-bid auction experiment, which has been designed to test the Nash equilibrium predictions of individual bidding behavior. Subjects faced in 100 auctions always the same resale value and competed with computerized bids. Three treatments were considered which varied with the conditions of information feedback. In earlier experimental work an overbidding above the risk neutral Nash equilibrium has been frequently reported. Our data provide evidence that this overbidding regularity can be a consequence of the standard information feedback in auction experiments of revealing only the winning bid after each auction. By means of learning direction theory we explain the individual bidding dynamics. Finally we apply impulse balance theory and make long run predictions of the individual bidding behavior.Experimental economics, first-price sealed-bid auctions, independent private value model, computerized competitors, bidding theory, risk aversion

Boundedly rational versus optimization-based models of strategic thinking and learning in games

The paper is a comment on the article by R. Harstad and R. Selten and considers the tradeoff between bounded rationality and optimization models in the game-theoretic context. The author shows that in most of the models elements of opimization are still retained and that it is thus more productive to further improve the optimization-based modeling rather than to abandon them altogether in favour of bounded rationality

THEORY AND MISBEHAVIOR OF FIRST-PRICE AUCTIONS: THE IMPORTANCE OF INFORMATION FEEDBACK IN EXPERIMENTAL MARKETS

This article reports the results of a market experiment designed to test the predictions of the constant relative risk aversion model and to study the importance of information feedback in repeated first-price sealed-bid auctions. The data reveal that introduction of price information feedback implies a significant change of individual behavior. Without price information feedback, the data support the risk neutral Nash equilibrium prediction; with price information feedback, on the other hand, subjects overbid the risk neutral Nash equilibrium significantly. The constant relative risk aversion model is rejected since it predicts overbidding for both feedback conditions.Experimental Economics, First-price Sealed-bid Auctions, Independent Private Value Model, Bidding Theory, Risk Aversion

A pure variation of risk in private-value auctions

We introduce a new method of varying risk that bidders face in first-price and second-price private value auctions. We find that decreasing bidders’ risk in first-price auction reduces the degree of overbidding relative to the risk-neutral Bayesian Nash equilibrium prediction.This finding is consistent with the risk-aversion explanation of overbidding. Furthermore, we apply the method to second-price auctions and find that bidding behavior is robust to manipulating bidders'' risk as generally expected in auction theory.microeconomics ;

Auctions with Anticipated Regret

This paper demonstrates theoretically and experimentally that in first price auctions, overbidding with respect to risk neutral Nash equilibrium might be driven from anticipated loser regret (felt when bidders lose at an affordable price). Different information structures are created to elicit regret: bidders know they will learn the winning bid if they lose (loser regret condition); or the second highest bid if they win (winner regret condition); or no information regarding the other bids. Bidders only in loser regret condition anticipated regret and significantly overbid; in the other conditions bidders did not anticipate regret and hence did not overbid.overbidding, first price auction, anticipated regret

Information Feedback and Learning in Construction Bidding

Information feedback condition in recurrent construction bidding is an important design variable about optimal procurement design. Contractors tend to optimize their bids in recurrent bidding with positive review of historic bids. Our experiment examines the effects of partial and no information feedback conditions on student (inexperienced) bidders’ bidding trends, and the extent to which their bidding trends agree with the behavioural patterns proposed by learning direction theory. The results show that the variations in bids over time for both information feedback conditions are statistically significant. Although the bidders with partial bidding feedback information are more likely to vary their bids as indicated by learning direction theory, their bids are less competitive than those with no bidding feedback information. Construction clients would need to consider the information feedback conditions in their procurement of construction services with the goal to achieve efficiency in construction bidding

The Minority of Three-Game: An Experimental and Theoretical Analysis

We report experimental and theoretical results on the minority of three-game where three players have to choose one of two alternatives independently and the most rewarding alternative is the one chosen by a single player. This coordination game has many asymmetric equilibria in pure strategies that are non strict and payoff-asymmetric, and a unique symmetric mixed strategy equilibrium in which each player's behavior is based on the toss of a fair coin. We show that such a straightforward behavior is predicted by Harsanyi and Selten's (1988) equilibrium selection theory as well as alternative solution concepts like impulse balance equilibrium and sampling equilibrium. Our results indicate that participants rely on various decision rules, and that only a quarter of them decide according to the toss of a fair coin. Reinforcement learning is the most successful decision rule as it describes best the behavior of about a third of our participants.Coordination, Minority game, Mixed strategy, Learning models, Experiments

A multi-agent simulation approach to farmland auction markets : repeated games with agents that learn

The focus of this thesis is to better explore and understand the effects of agent interactions, information feedback, and adaptive learning in a repeated game of bidding in farmland auction markets. This thesis will develop a multi-agent model of farm-land auction markets based on data from the Saskatchewan Dark Brown Soil Zone of the Canadian Prairies. Several auction types will be modeled and data will be gathered on land transactions between farm agents to ascertain which auction type (if any) is best suited for farmland markets. Specifically, the model gathers information for 3 types of sealed-bid auctions, and 1 English auction and compares them on the basis of efficiency, price information revelation, stability, and with respect to repeated bidding and agent learning. The effects of auction choice on macro-level indicators, such as farm exits, retirement, financial stability, average productivity, farm size, and participation were unknown at the outset of this thesis because of the complex dynamic nature of the environment. I find that the chosen learning mechanism employed here affects both price and variance of prices in all auctions. I also find that the second-price-sealed-bid auction generates the most perceived surplus, most equitable share of surplus, and also decreases uncertainty in the common-value element of prices. A priori it was believed that auction choice would have an impact on pricing efficiency, price levels, and shares of surplus generated from auctions as predicted by theoretical works. Surprisingly, auction choice does not influence market structure or evolution

Threshold public good games and impulse balance theory

We propose and develop a model of behavior in threshold public good games. The model draws on learning direction theory and impulse balance theory. We find good support for the model and demonstrate that it can explain the success rates observed in threshold public good experiments. The model is applied in a variety of dierent settings : we compare games with a full refund to those with no refund, consider changes in relative endowment, and consider changes in the step return and net reward.Public good, threshold, learning direction theory, impulse balance theory, counterfactual thinking