The Exchange Rate Regime and International Trade

The study of the relation between the exchange rates regime and international trade is done using an inter-disciplinary vision that contains knowledge from four different disciplines: economics, history, mathematics and computer sciences. In the case of pure theory of international trade, there is made an abstraction of the fact that international trade is done using money. The theoretical analysis of international trade including the monetary factor deals with static equilibrium and linear models. We conceived a macroeconomic model of the world economy and used this model to make three simulation experiments. The conclusion of these experiments is that a broader exchange rate band has a negative impact over the volume of world trade. This conclusion is confirmed by the historical analysis.historical analysis, macroeconomic modelling, simulation of international trade, design of exchange rate regime experiments

A Tool to Optimize the Initial Distribution of Hydrogen Filling Stations

An important barrier towards the introduction of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) running on hydrogen is the lack of widespread refueling infrastructure. The niche of buses for public transport, taxis and deliverers with a local application area might not be large enough to generate the reductions of FCV costs that are necessary for a general technology switch. Thus, fuel availability at trunk roads probably plays a crucial role in generating demand for FCVs also from private consumers. In this paper we assume that consumers are more likely to consider buying a FCV the more frequently they are exposed to hydrogen refueling opportunities on long distant trips. We introduce a tool to test different small scale initial distributions of hydrogen outlets within the German trunk road system for their potential success to generate a large scale adoption of FCVs. The tool makes use of agent based trip modeling and Geographic Information System (GIS) supported spatial modeling. We demonstrate its potentials by testing a ring shaped distribution of hydrogen outlets at highway filling stations. We find that the structure of an optimized initial distribution of filling stations depends on what drivers consider a sufficiently small distance between refueling opportunities.Agent based modeling, Alternative fueled vehicles, Hydrogen, Fuel Cells

Markets fo Heterogeneous Products: a Boundedly Rational Consumer Model

The paper is based on the acknowledgement that properties of markets stemming from features of demand are too frequently overlooked in the economic literature, and a re-balancing is necessary to properly account for theoretical and empirical phenomena. We sustain that one of the most relevant reasons for the neglect of the role of demand is the lack of an adequate representation of consumers. This claim is particu- larly relevant for evolutionary economics since its critique to the mainstream approach stopped at the representation of firms. The standard utility maximization approach to consumers? theory is even less defensible than the related assumption of producers? rationality, given the lack of competitive pressure on consumers. As a contribution to this theoretical gap, the paper presents a model for consumer based on the assumption of bounded rationality and inspired to the literature on experimental psychology. The proposed model can be applied to multi-dimensional products/services and relies on intuitive and potentially observable parameters, allow- ing for a wide range of theoretical and empirical applications. Moreover, the intrinsic structure of the model provides a clear definition of preferences, meant as ex-ante decisional criteria, distinguished from post-hoc justification of any decisional result. Though structurally simple, the proposed model is very flexible and allows for a clear exploration of the impact of specific demand features on the produced results. Several experiments show that the model can be successfully applied both to generate standard results and to implement complex configurations such as those of generated by large markets with heterogeneous products. Among the results presented, the most relevant concerns the identification of two classes of market segmentation, generated by the identical suppliers and demand?s ex- ogenous factors, but different consumers? decisional mechanisms. The results produced are observationally equivalent, but are shown to have radically different properties, and are proposed as initial elements of a taxonomy for the classification demand classes, likely to explain common properties across different markets.Evolutionary Economics, Consumer Theory, Bounded Rationality, Marketing and Preferences, Simulation Models, Market Structure

Forecasting the state of health of electric vehicle batteries to evaluate the viability of car sharing practices

Car sharing practices are introducing electric vehicles into their fleet. However, literature suggests that at this point shared electric vehicle systems are failing to reach satisfactory commercial viability. Potential reason for this is the effect of higher vehicle usage which is characteristic for car sharing, and the implication on the battery state of health. In this paper, we forecast state of health for two identical electric vehicles shared by two different car sharing practices. For this purpose, we use real life transaction data from charging stations and different electric vehicles’ sensors. The results indicate that insight into users’ driving and charging behaviour can provide valuable point of reference for car sharing system designers. In particular, the forecasting results show that the moment when electric vehicle battery reaches its theoretical end of life can differ in as much as ¼ of time when vehicles are shared under different conditions

A study of the water-energy nexus in power plants

Tesis por compendio de publicaciones[ES] La tesis se llevó a cabo a través de compendio de artículos científicos, de modo que se lleva a cabo un resumen de cada artículo, así como la información de cada uno. Artículo 1 Título: Optimal gas treatment and coal blending for reduced emissions in power plants: A case study in Northwest Spain. Autores: Lidia S Guerras y Mariano Martín. Revista: Energy DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.089 Resumen: En este trabajo se ha desarrollado un marco de toma de decisiones para el diseño de la sección de tratamiento de gases de combustión de una central eléctrica, que incluye operaciones de remoción de partículas, NOx y SO2. Se ha aplicado a una central térmica de carbón en España para seleccionar las tecnologías óptimas y su secuencia. Se han desarrollado modelos sustitutos para los tratamientos. El problema corresponde a una programación no lineal entera mixta que incluye la eliminación de NOx catalítica y no catalítica, lo que permite varias asignaciones para la tecnología catalítica, precipitación electrostática y eliminación de SO2 húmedo o seco. Se reformula como un problema no lineal para evaluar las oportunidades de bypass. La optimización sugiere el uso de precipitación electrostática, seguida de la eliminación catalítica de NOx y la eliminación de SO2 seco. A continuación, también se ha resuelto un problema de mezcla de carbón para dos funciones objetivo. Cuando solo se consideran los costos de tratamiento, se recomienda el uso de carbón importado, pero un aumento del 4% en su precio puede cambiar la decisión por el uso de carbón nacional. Si la energía del carbón se agrega a la función objetivo, el carbón de alquitrán crudo se incluye en la mezcla y el carbón importado se usa para mantener las emisiones dentro de los límites. La oxidación forzada de piedra caliza es la tecnología seleccionada. Artículo 2 Título: Optimal Flue Gas Treatment for Oxy-Combustion-Based Pulverized Coal Power Plants Autores: Lidia S Guerras y Mariano Martín. Revista: Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research DOI: 10.1021/acs.iecr.9b04453 Resumen: La oxicombustión es reconocida como la tecnología más limpia que utiliza carbón como fuente de energía. La limpieza de los gases de combustión es esencial para un funcionamiento sostenible. En este trabajo se determina la selección óptima de las tecnologías de tratamiento de gases de combustión en centrales de oxicombustión. Se utiliza un procedimiento de dos etapas que combina heurística y programación matemática para evaluar las tecnologías involucradas, incluida la caldera, la desnitrificación, la precipitación electrostática, la eliminación de dióxido de azufre y la captura de carbono. Para el funcionamiento de la planta, se debe seleccionar la alimentación de carbón. Se resuelve un problema de mezcla extendido para evaluar el tipo de carbón que se comprará en función de su costo y composición. El procesamiento óptimo de los gases de combustión consiste en la precipitación electrostática, seguida de la eliminación de SO2 seco y la purificación de CO2 con zeolitas. No se requiere ningún método de desnitrificación específico debido a los bajos niveles de concentración de NOx generados en la oxicombustión. Esta hoja de flujo se utiliza para seleccionar uno entre una mezcla de tres tipos diferentes de carbón: alquitrán de hulla nacional, importado y crudo. Sin embargo, no se recomienda ninguna mezcla ya que se seleccionó alquitrán de hulla crudo. Aunque los costos de procesamiento son más altos, se ve compensado por el menor coste de la materia prima. Artículo 3 Título: On the water footprint in power production: Sustainable design of wet cooling towersAutores: Lidia S Guerras y Mariano Martín. Revista: Applied Energy DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114620 Resumen: Las plantas de energía renovable deben instalarse donde esté disponible el recurso principal. El clima afecta el diseño y la huella hídrica de estas plantas. Se estudian dos tipos de ciclos de potencia, un ciclo Rankine regenerativo, representativo de biomasa y plantas termosolares, y el ciclo combinado, correspondiente a procesos basados en biogás o gasificación. Las instalaciones se modelan en detalle unidad por unidad para calcular el rendimiento del ciclo, el trabajo del condensador, el consumo de agua y la geometría de la torre de enfriamiento húmedo de tiro natural para su diseño sostenible. Las regiones cálidas, apropiadas para instalaciones solares, y las regiones húmedas requieren torres más grandes y caras. Las áreas con alta disponibilidad solar también muestran un mayor consumo de agua, lo que representa un intercambio para un futuro sistema de energía basado en energías renovables. Además, también se han desarrollado pautas de diseño y modelos sustitutos para estimar el consumo de agua, el tamaño de la torre de enfriamiento y su costo en función del clima. Los sustitutos son útiles para el análisis de la huella hídrica de un sistema de energía de base renovable que sustituye al de base fósil. Artículo 4 Título: Multilayer Approach for Product Portfolio Optimization: Waste to Added-Value Products Autores: Lidia S. Guerras, Debalina Sengupta, Mariano Martín, and Mahmoud M. El-Halwagi Revista: ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering. DOI: 10.1021/acssuschemeng.1c01284 Resumen: Se ha desarrollado un procedimiento sistemático multicapa de varias etapas para la selección de la cartera de productos óptima a partir de biomasa residual como materia prima para sistemas que implican el nexo “wáter-energy-food”. Consiste en una metodología híbrida heurística, basada en métricas y optimización que evalúa el desempeño económico y ambiental de productos de valor agregado a partir de una materia prima en particular. La primera etapa preselecciona los productos prometedores. A continuación, se formula un problema de optimización de la superestructura para valorizar o transformar los residuos en el conjunto óptimo de productos. La metodología se ha aplicado dentro de la iniciativa “Waste to Power and Chemicals” para evaluar el mejor uso de los residuos de biomasa de la industria del aceite de oliva en alimentos, productos químicos y energía. La etapa heurística se basa en la revisión de la literatura para analizar los productos y técnicas factibles. A continuación, se han desarrollado y utilizado métricas simples para preseleccionar productos que son prometedores. Finalmente, se utiliza un enfoque de optimización de la superestructura para diseñar la instalación que procesa hojas, astillas de madera y aceitunas en productos finales. La mejor técnica para recuperar fenoles del “alperujo”, un residuo sólido húmedo/subproducto del proceso, consiste en el uso de membranas, mientras que la técnica de adsorción se utiliza para la recuperación de fenoles de hojas y ramas de olivo. La inversión necesaria para procesar los residuos asciende a 110,2 millones de euros por 100 kt/año para la instalación de producción de aceitunas, mientras que el beneficio depende del nivel de integración. Si la instalación está adscrita a la producción de aceite de oliva, el beneficio generado oscila entre los 14,5 MM €/año (cuando los residuos se compran a precios de 249 € por tonelada de alperujo y 6 € por tonelada de hojas y ramas de olivo) y 34,3 MM €/año cuando el material de desecho se obtiene de forma gratuita

Implication of FORCEnet on coalition forces

The coalition navies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the United States (AUSCANNZUKUS) are in a period of transformation. They are stepping out of the Industrial Age of warfare and into the Informational Age of warfare. Network Centric Warfare (NCW) is the emerging theory to accomplish this undertaking. NCW describes "the combination of strategies, emerging tactics, techniques, and procedures, and organizations that a fully or even partially networked force can employ to create a decisive war fighting advantage." 1 This theory is turned into a concept through Network Centric Operations (NCO) and implemented through the FORCEnet operational construct and architectural framework. The coalition navies are moving in a direction to develop and leverage information more effectively and efficiently. This will lead to an informational advantage that can be used as a combat multiplier to shape and control the environment, so as to dissuade, deter, and decisively defeat any enemy. This analysis was comprised of defining three TTCP AG-6 provided vignettes into ARENA model that captured Coalition ESG configurations at various FORCEnet levels. The results of the analysis demonstrated that enhanced FORCEnet capabilities such as FORCEnet Levels 2 and 4 would satisfy the capability gap for a needed network-centric ESG force that can effectively counter insurgency operations in Maritime warfare. Furthermore, the participating allied navies in the Coalition ESG should pursue acquisition strategies to upgrade their ship platforms in accordance with our recommendation which indicates that FORCEnet Level 2 is the best value.http://archive.org/details/implicationoffor109456926N

Trade liberalization, fiscal adjustment, and exchange rate policy in India

The authors investigate the impact of India's program of economic stabilization and trade liberalization launched in 1991, a year when the country was in the throes of a foreign exchange crisis. The authors address a key policy tradeoff between trade liberalization and fiscal adjustment arising from India's heavy dependence on tariffs for public revenues. They give quantitative expression to how trade liberalization should be coordinated both with fiscal adjustment - that is, a combination of trade-neutral tax increases and expenditure reduction and with a policy of exchange rate changes to restore both internal and external equilibrium. This paper asks: What is the impact of a reduction in the fiscal deficit characteristic of stabilization programs on tax and expenditure levels, on the real exchange rate, and the current account deficit? What is the effect of a significant trade liberalization without additional external financing on macroeconomic variables such as the required degree of fiscal adjustment and change in the real exchange rate, and, at a more disaggregated level, on output levels in different export-oriented and import-substituting sectors of the economy? What would the impact of such trade liberalization look like should substantive external financing become available without the need for domestic fiscal adjustment? The questions are explored using a general equilibrium model of the Indian economy that focuses on the consequences of trade policy reform. Policymakers are, however, also interested in how various import-substituting industries would be adversely affected by trade liberalization and how particular export-oriented industries would gain from it. These objectives are reconciled by the innovative expedient of implementing two models on a common data base: 1) a disaggregated 72-sector (price sensitive) input-output version that makes simplified assumptions regarding certain economywide relationships; and 2) an aggregated 6-sector version that pays attention to those relationships and can suggest what corrections ought to be made to the results of the sectorally disaggregated analysis. The policy questions were answered for the eve of the 1991 economic reform program launched by India's policymakers. Developments in the principal macroeconomic aggregates in the first two years of the liberalization process were then compared with the outcomes of the model and generally found to correspond closely. This finding encouraged an updating of the model for fiscal 1992-93 and its deployment to analyze the consequences of a set of further economic reforms for subsequent years. The authors conclude by suggesting that the approach developed for this paper could provide broad indications of the economywide and sectoral consequences of pursuing the unfinished agenda of reforms facing policymakers not only in India but in other developing countries as well.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Consumption,EnvironmentalEconomics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Consumption