Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in MERCOSUR

The paper analyzes cyclical comovements in the Mercosur area differentiating idiosyncratic from common shocks. In the Mercosur (or any region for that matter) shocks can be country-specific, affecting only one country or a specific set of countries (for example, a weather-related shock, a domestic policy shock); or they can be common to the entire region (for example, a change in the conditions in international capital markets or a world recession). Propagation mechanisms, in turn, are important because a shock that was initially country-specific, originating in one country, might eventually spillover to others. We build on the unobserved component approach to decompose the Mercosur countries real GDP (seasonally adjusted) fluctuations into these three components and compare them with previous results. The main findings in the paper are: first, common factors originating in impulses stemming from changes in investor’s sentiment are relevant to explaining regional output comovements and the spillover effects between neighbors are significant. Second, volatility matters, and matters especially in the case of recent regional agreements. Supply shocks in Mercosur countries tend to be larger than in the US and European countries. Third, finance matters for both volatility and output/price dynamics. Accelerator effects may be important in explaining some features of the output/price dynamics that the standard models based on vector autoregression techniques are unable to account for..

Internationalization strategies of companies in the wine industry in Portugal – context, forms of action and performance.

This research project aims to analyze the competitive environment of companies in the wine sector in Portugal and assess the implications in the development of contingent strategic guidelines and different performances.Proposes to apply the methodological framework the IKST – Integrated Key for Strategic Thought for international expansion. The research was carried out at two levels: at a preliminary level – a general characterisation was made of the companies as to their resources, and at a central level – the examination of the strategic aspect of the companies was carried out. The research involved the collection of primary data (survey of 164 companies in the sector) and secondary data (from documentary nature). Explores the strategic aspect, analyzing the sector in terms of global and national context, in order to design a diagnostic context of action, using the models of PEST and 5 Forces. Identifies, based on various statistical techniques, the adopted style of strategic thought and the profile in terms of contextual variables, as well as the underlying economic performance

Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in Mercosur

Abstract: The paper analyzes cyclical comovements in the Mercosur area differentiating idiosyncratic from common shocks. In the Mercosur (or any region for that matter) shocks can be country-specific, affecting only one country or a specific set of countries (for example, a weather-related shock, a domestic policy shock); or they can be common to the entire region (for example, a change in the conditions in international capital markets or a world recession). Propagation mechanisms, in turn, are important because a shock that was initially country-specific, originating in one country, might eventually spillover to others. We build on the unobserved component approach to decompose the Mercosur countries’ real GDP (seasonally adjusted) uctuations into these three components and compare them with previous results. The main findings in the paper are: first, common factors originating in impulses stemming from changes in investor’s sentiment are relevant to explaining regional output comovements and the spillover effects between neighbors are significant. Second, volatility matters, and matters especially in the case of recent regional agreements. Supply shocks in Mercosur countries tend to be larger than in the US and European countries. Third, finance matters for both volatility and output/price dynamics. Accelerator effects may be important in explaining some features of the output/price dynamics that the standard models based on vector autoregression techniques are unable to account forBusiness cycle, Comovement, Mercosur, OCA, Policy coordination

The Power of Patents: Leveraging Text Mining and Social Network Analysis to Forecast IoT Trends

Technology has become an indispensable competitive tool as science and technology have progressed throughout history. Organizations can compete on an equal footing by implementing technology appropriately. Technology trends or technology lifecycles begin during the initiation phase. Finally, it reaches saturation after entering the maturity phase. As technology reaches saturation, it will be removed or replaced by another. This makes investing in technologies during this phase unjustifiable. Technology forecasting is a critical tool for research and development to determine the future direction of technology. Based on registered patents, this study examined the trends of IOT technologies. A total of 3697 patents related to the Internet of Things from the last six years of patenting have been gathered using lens.org for this purpose. The main people and companies were identified through the creation of the IOT patent registration cooperation network, and the main groups active in patent registration were identified by the community detection technique. The patents were then divided into six technology categories: Safety and Security, Information Services, Public Safety and Environment Monitoring, Collaborative Aware Systems, Smart Homes/Buildings, and Smart Grid. And their technical maturity was identified and examined using the Sigma Plot program. Based on the findings, information services technologies are in the saturation stage, while both smart homes/buildings, and smart grid technologies are in the saturation stage. Three technologies, Safety and Security, Public Safety and Environment Monitoring, and Collaborative Aware Systems are in the maturity stage

Networking Innovation in the European Car Industry : Does the Open Innovation Model Fit?

The automobile industry is has entered an innovation race. Uncertain technological trends, long development cycles, highly capital intensive product development, saturated markets, and environmental and safety regulations have subjected the sector to major transformations. The technological and organizational innovations related to these transformations necessitate research that can enhance our understanding of the characteristics of the new systems and extrapolate the implications for companies as well as for the wider economy. Is the industry ready to change and accelerate the pace of its innovation and adaptability? Have the traditional supply chains transformed into supply networks and regional automobile ecosystems? The study investigates the applicability of the Open Innovation concept to a mature capital-intensive asset-based industry, which is preparing for a radical technological discontinuity - the European automobile industry - through interviewing purposely selected knowledgeable respondents across seven European countries. The findings contribute to the understanding of the OI concept by identifying key obstacles to the wider adoption of the OI model, and signalling the importance of intermediaries and large incumbents for driving network development and OI practices as well as the need of new competencies to be developed by all players.Peer reviewe

The development of a framework for enterprise security architecture and its application in organizations

The main purpose of this study is to develop an enterprise security framework that is based on a comprehensive following the Zachman EA architecture. The enterprise architecture (EA) is a long-term view or blueprint for an organization. It is a very important blueprint for balancing business and IT technology and for adding value to an organization. Security is also an essential dimension for enterprises nowadays. This paper will incorporate the security dimension with the Zachman EA framework, which intends to serve as an enterprise security framework in assisting an organization to successfully and effectively implement security

Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections

Global climate models are central tools for understanding past and future climate change. The assessment of model skill, in turn, can benefit from modern data science approaches. Here we apply causal discovery algorithms to sea level pressure data from a large set of climate model simulations and, as a proxy for observations, meteorological reanalyses. We demonstrate how the resulting causal networks (fingerprints) offer an objective pathway for process-oriented model evaluation. Models with fingerprints closer to observations better reproduce important precipitation patterns over highly populated areas such as the Indian subcontinent, Africa, East Asia, Europe and North America. We further identify expected model interdependencies due to shared development backgrounds. Finally, our network metrics provide stronger relationships for constraining precipitation projections under climate change as compared to traditional evaluation metrics for storm tracks or precipitation itself. Such emergent relationships highlight the potential of causal networks to constrain longstanding uncertainties in climate change projections. Algorithms to assess causal relationships in data sets have seen increasing applications in climate science in recent years. Here, the authors show that these techniques can help to systematically evaluate the performance of climate models and, as a result, to constrain uncertainties in future climate change projections

Treatment and valorization plants in materials recovery supply chain

Aim of industrial symbiosis is to create synergies between industries in order to exchange resources (by-products, water and energy) through geographic proximity and collaboration [1]. By optimizing resource flows in a “whole-system approach”, a minimization of dangerous emissions and of supply needs can be achieved. Resources exchanges are established to facilitate recycling and re-use of industrial waste using a commercial vehicle. Several paths can be identified in order to establish an industrial symbiosis network (Figure 1, left), in relation (i) to the life cycle phase (raw material, component, product) and (ii) to the nature (material, water, energy) of the resource flows to be exchanged. Sometimes by-products and/or waste of an industrial process have to be treated and valorized in order to become the raw materials for others. In particular, two main treatment processes can be identified: refurbishment/upgrade for re-use (Figure 1, center) and recycling for material recovery (Figure 1, right). A brief overview of technological and economic aspects is given, together with their relevance to industrial symbiosis