Estimating multiclass service demand distributions using Markovian arrival processes

Building performance models for software services in DevOps is costly and error-prone. Accurate service demand distribution estimation is critical to precisely modeling queueing behaviors and performance prediction. However, current estimation methods focus on capturing the mean service demand, disregarding higher-order moments of the distribution that still can largely affect prediction accuracy. To address this limitation, we propose to estimate higher moments of the service demand distribution for a microservice from monitoring traces. We first generate a closed queueing model to abstract software performance and use it to model the departure process of requests completed by the software service as a Markovian arrival process. This allows formulating the estimation of service demand into an optimization problem, which aims to find the first multiple moments of the service demand distribution that maximize the likelihood of the MAP using generated the measured inter-departure times. We then estimate the service demand distribution for different classes of service with a maximum likelihood algorithm and novel heuristics to mitigate the computational cost of the optimization process for scalability. We apply our method to real traces from a microservice-based application and demonstrate that its estimations lead to greater prediction accuracy than exponential distributions assumed in traditional service demand estimation approaches for software services

How to select significant workloads in performance models

The complexity of computer systems requires to con- sider the interaction of several workloads. Only a limited number of business and technical workloads are usually re- quired to properly model the system. In this paper, we discuss regression-based estimates of service times required for model parametrization and we focus on the selection of significant workloads. We present an experimental comparison, using real perfor- mance logs of a distributed enterprise application, illus- trating the benefits of constrained estimations over the tra- ditional approach based on ordinary linear regression

Architecture-Level Software Performance Models for Online Performance Prediction

Proactive performance and resource management of modern IT infrastructures requires the ability to predict at run-time, how the performance of running services would be affected if the workload or the system changes. In this thesis, modeling and prediction facilities that enable online performance prediction during system operation are presented. Analyses about the impact of reconfigurations and workload trends can be conducted on the model level, without executing expensive performance tests