Safety Evaluation Using Counterfactual Simulations: The use of computational driver behavior models in crash avoidance systems and virtual simulations with optimal subsampling

Traffic safety is a problem worldwide. In-vehicle conflict and crash avoidance systems have been under development and assessment for some time, as integral parts of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Automated Driving Systems (ADS). Among the methods used to assess conflict and crash avoidance systems developed by the automotive industry, virtual safety assessment methods have been shown to have great potential and efficiency. In fact, scenario generation-based virtual safety assessments play—and are likely to continue to play—a very important role in the assessments of vehicles of all levels of automation. The ultimate aim of this thesis is to improve the safety performance of conflict and crash avoidance systems. This aim is addressed through the use of computational driver models in two different ways. First, by using comfort-zone boundaries in system design, and second, by using a behavior-based crash-causation model together with a novel optimized scenario generation method for virtual safety assessment.The first objective of this thesis is to investigate how a driver model which includes road users’ comfortable behaviors in crash avoidance algorithms impacts the systems’ safety performance and the residual crash characteristics. Chinese car-to-two-wheeler crashes were targeted; Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) algorithms, which comprised the proposed crash avoidance systems, were compared to a traditional AEB algorithm. The proposed algorithms showed larger safety performance benefits. In addition, the similarities in residual crash characteristics regarding impact speed and location after different AEB implementations can potentially simplify the designs of in-crash protection system in future.The second objective is to develop and apply a method for efficient subsampling in crash-causation-model-based scenario generation for virtual safety assessment. The method, which is machine-learning-assisted, actively and iteratively updates the sampling probability based on new simulation results. The crash-causation model is based on off-road glances and a distribution of driver maximum decelerations in critical situations. A simple time-to-collision-based AEB algorithm was used to demonstrate the assessment process as well as the benefits of combining crash-causation-model-based scenario generation and optimal subsampling. The sampling methods are designed to target specific safety benefit indicators, such as impact speed reduction and crash avoidance rate. The results of the study show that the proposed sampling method requires almost 50% fewer simulations than traditional importance sampling.Future work aims to focus on applying the active sampling method to driver-model-based car-to-vulnerable road user (VRU) scenario generation. In addition to assessing conflict and crash avoidance system performance, a novel stopping criterion based on Bayesian future prediction will be further developed and demonstrated for use in experiments (e.g., as part of developing driver models) and virtual simulations (e.g., using driver-behavior-based crash-causation models). This criterion will be able to indicate when studies are unlikely to yield actionable results within the budget available, facilitating the decision to discontinue them while they are being run

Towards Safe Autonomous Driving

Autonomous driving is expected to bring several benefits, in particular regarding safety. This thesis aim to contribute towards two questions concerning safety: "What is the potential safety benefit of autonomous driving?\u27\u27 and "How can we ensure safe operation of such vehicles?\u27\u27.In the first part of the thesis, methods for evaluating the safety benefit are investigated. In particular predictive effectiveness evaluation based on resimulation of accident data, using models to estimate new outcomes in case the safety system had been available. To illustrate the methodology, four examples of gradual increase in model complexity are presented. First, an Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) system using a sensor model, decision algorithm, vehicle dynamics model and regression based injury model. This is extended in a Forward Collision Warning (FCW) system which additionally requires a driver model to simulate driver reactions. The third example shows how an active, AEB, and passive, airbag, system can be combined.\ua0Finally the fourth example combines several systems to emulate a highly automated vehicle. Apart from predicting the real world performance, this analysis also identifies current safety gaps by studying the residual of the accident set.Safety benefit estimation using accident data gives an evaluation on the current accident distributions, however, the systems may introduce new accidents if not operated as intended. In the second part of the thesis, safety verification processes with the intent of preventing unsafe operation, are presented. This is particularly challenging for machine learning based components, such as neural networks. In this case, traditional analytical verification approaches are\ua0difficult to apply due to the non-linearity and high dimensional parameter spaces. Similarly, statistical safety arguments often require unfeasible amounts of annotated validation data. Instead, monitor functions are investigated as a complement to increase safety during operation. The method presented estimates the similarity of the driving environment, compared to the training data, where decisions inferred from novel data can be considered less reliable.\ua0Although not providing a complete safety assurance, the methodology show promising initial results for increasing safety. In addition, it could potentially be used to collect novel data and reduce redundancy in training data

On the needs and requirements arising from connected and automated driving

Future 5G systems have set a goal to support mission-critical Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) communications and they contribute to an important step towards connected and automated driving. To achieve this goal, the communication technologies should be designed based on a solid understanding of the new V2X applications and the related requirements and challenges. In this regard, we provide a description of the main V2X application categories and their representative use cases selected based on an analysis of the future needs of cooperative and automated driving. We also present a methodology on how to derive the network related requirements from the automotive specific requirements. The methodology can be used to analyze the key requirements of both existing and future V2X use cases

Teenagers and Automated Vehicles: Are They Ready to Use Them?

ABSTRACT: Mobility needs, expectations, and concerns vary across age groups and are closely linked to users' views on the future of the road transport system. Automated vehicles are expected to have a significant impact on the future of the road transport system, and pilot deployments are increasingly being tested in Europe and beyond, which is also thanks to the evolving regulatory landscape. As a result, several studies have started to analyse citizens' attitudes towards this technology. However, very few studies have focused on teenagers' views on automated vehicles, although today's children and teenagers could be among the first users of such vehicles. Studying teenagers and the way they envisage automated vehicles in the future is of particular significance in defining transport planning strategies and supporting upcoming policy orientations. To cover this gap, the present study aims to explore teenagers' views about automated vehicles and whether and how they could fit into their future transport setting. A series of on-line and face-to-face focus groups, a demonstration of an automated vehicle prototype, supporting engagement activities, and a post-pre survey were used to collect their views on the topic. The results show that even though the teenagers acknowledged the potential advantages, they also expressed concerns in relation to the interactions with other road users, to automated driving systems' reliability, to safety, and to data privacy. In particular, these safety concerns revealed an unwillingness on the part of the teenagers to be among the first users of automated vehicles.This research has been funded by the European Commission Joint Research Centre Institutional Funds

Governing autonomous vehicles: emerging responses for safety, liability, privacy, cybersecurity, and industry risks

The benefits of autonomous vehicles (AVs) are widely acknowledged, but there are concerns about the extent of these benefits and AV risks and unintended consequences. In this article, we first examine AVs and different categories of the technological risks associated with them. We then explore strategies that can be adopted to address these risks, and explore emerging responses by governments for addressing AV risks. Our analyses reveal that, thus far, governments have in most instances avoided stringent measures in order to promote AV developments and the majority of responses are non-binding and focus on creating councils or working groups to better explore AV implications. The US has been active in introducing legislations to address issues related to privacy and cybersecurity. The UK and Germany, in particular, have enacted laws to address liability issues, other countries mostly acknowledge these issues, but have yet to implement specific strategies. To address privacy and cybersecurity risks strategies ranging from introduction or amendment of non-AV specific legislation to creating working groups have been adopted. Much less attention has been paid to issues such as environmental and employment risks, although a few governments have begun programmes to retrain workers who might be negatively affected.Comment: Transport Reviews, 201