The transformation of earth-system observations into information of socio-economic value in GEOSS

The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value

The ESCAPE project : Energy-efficient Scalable Algorithms for Weather Prediction at Exascale

In the simulation of complex multi-scale flows arising in weather and climate modelling, one of the biggest challenges is to satisfy strict service requirements in terms of time to solution and to satisfy budgetary constraints in terms of energy to solution, without compromising the accuracy and stability of the application. These simulations require algorithms that minimise the energy footprint along with the time required to produce a solution, maintain the physically required level of accuracy, are numerically stable, and are resilient in case of hardware failure. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) led the ESCAPE (Energy-efficient Scalable Algorithms for Weather Prediction at Exascale) project, funded by Horizon 2020 (H2020) under the FET-HPC (Future and Emerging Technologies in High Performance Computing) initiative. The goal of ESCAPE was to develop a sustainable strategy to evolve weather and climate prediction models to next-generation computing technologies. The project partners incorporate the expertise of leading European regional forecasting consortia, university research, experienced high-performance computing centres, and hardware vendors. This paper presents an overview of the ESCAPE strategy: (i) identify domain-specific key algorithmic motifs in weather prediction and climate models (which we term Weather & Climate Dwarfs), (ii) categorise them in terms of computational and communication patterns while (iii) adapting them to different hardware architectures with alternative programming models, (iv) analyse the challenges in optimising, and (v) find alternative algorithms for the same scheme. The participating weather prediction models are the following: IFS (Integrated Forecasting System); ALARO, a combination of AROME (Application de la Recherche a l'Operationnel a Meso-Echelle) and ALADIN (Aire Limitee Adaptation Dynamique Developpement International); and COSMO-EULAG, a combination of COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling) and EULAG (Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian fluid solver). For many of the weather and climate dwarfs ESCAPE provides prototype implementations on different hardware architectures (mainly Intel Skylake CPUs, NVIDIA GPUs, Intel Xeon Phi, Optalysys optical processor) with different programming models. The spectral transform dwarf represents a detailed example of the co-design cycle of an ESCAPE dwarf. The dwarf concept has proven to be extremely useful for the rapid prototyping of alternative algorithms and their interaction with hardware; e.g. the use of a domain-specific language (DSL). Manual adaptations have led to substantial accelerations of key algorithms in numerical weather prediction (NWP) but are not a general recipe for the performance portability of complex NWP models. Existing DSLs are found to require further evolution but are promising tools for achieving the latter. Measurements of energy and time to solution suggest that a future focus needs to be on exploiting the simultaneous use of all available resources in hybrid CPU-GPU arrangements

The International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and the Coastal Hazards Symposium

Following the 13th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 4th Coastal Hazards Symposium in October 2013 in Banff, Canada, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here we give a brief overview of the history of the conference since its inception in 1986 and of the progress made in the fields of wind-generated ocean waves and the modelling of coastal hazards before we summarize the main results of the papers that have appeared in the topical collection

An Analysis of Publication Venues for Automatic Differentiation Research

We present the results of our analysis of publication venues for papers on automatic differentiation (AD), covering academic journals and conference proceedings. Our data are collected from the AD publications database maintained by the autodiff.org community website. The database is purpose-built for the AD field and is expanding via submissions by AD researchers. Therefore, it provides a relatively noise-free list of publications relating to the field. However, it does include noise in the form of variant spellings of journal and conference names. We handle this by manually correcting and merging these variants under the official names of corresponding venues. We also share the raw data we get after these corrections.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) Partnership’s work in Latin America

The Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) Partnership is a private-public collaboration led by USAID, which aims to increase resilience to climate change in developing countries through the development and dissemination of climate services. The partnership began with initial projects in three countries: Colombia, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh. The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) was the lead organization for the Colombian CSRD efforts – which then expanded to encompass work in the whole Latin American region

Influence of input climatic data on simulations of annual energy needs of a building: energyplus and WRF modeling for a case study in Rome (Italy)

The simulation of the energy consumptions in an hourly regime is necessary in order to perform calculations on residential buildings of particular relevance for volume or for architectural features. In such cases, the simplified methodology provided by the regulations may be inadequate, and the use of software like EnergyPlus is needed. To obtain reliable results, usually, significant time is spent on the meticulous insertion of the geometrical inputs of the building, together with the properties of the envelope materials and systems. Less attention is paid to the climate database. The databases available on the EnergyPlus website refer to airports located in rural areas near major cities. If the building to be simulated is located in a metropolitan area, it may be affected by the local heat island, and the database used as input to the software should take this phenomenon into account. To this end, it is useful to use a meteorological model such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to construct an appropriate input climate file. A case study based on a building located in the city center of Rome (Italy) shows that, if the climatic forcing linked to the heat island is not considered, the estimated consumption due to the cooling is underestimated by 35–50%. In particular, the analysis and the seasonal comparison between the energy needs of the building simulated by EnergyPlus, with the climatic inputs related to two airports in the rural area of Rome and with the inputs provided by the WRF model related to the center of Rome, show discrepancies of about (i) WRF vs. Fiumicino (FCO): Δ = −3.48% for heating, Δ = 49.25% for cooling; (ii) WRF vs. Ciampino (CIA): Δ = −7.38% for heating, Δ = +35.52% for cooling