High Confidence Intervals Applied to Aircraft Altitude Prediction

International audienceThis paper describes the application of high confidence interval prediction methods to the aircraft trajectory prediction problem, more specifically to the altitude prediction during climb. We are interested in methods for finding twosided intervals that contain, with a specified confidence, at least a desired proportion of the conditional distribution of the response variable. This paper introduces Two-sided Bonferroni-Quantile Confidence Intervals (TBQCI), which is a new method for obtaining high confidence two-sided intervals in quantile regression. The paper also uses the Bonferroni inequality to propose a new method for obtaining tolerance intervals in least-squares regression. This latter has the advantages of being reliable, fast and easy to calculate. We compare physical point-mass models to the introduced models on an Air Traffic Management (ATM) dataset composed of traffic at major French airports. Experimental results show that the proposed interval prediction models perform significantly better than the conventional pointmass model currently used in most trajectory predictors. When comparing with a recent state-of-the-art point-mass model with adaptive mass estimation, the proposed methods giv

Data-driven condition monitoring approaches to improving power output of wind turbines

This paper presents data-driven approaches to improving active power output of wind turbines based on estimating their health condition. The main procedure includes estimations of fault degree and health condition level, and optimal power dispatch control. The proposed method can adjust active power output of individual turbines according to their health condition and can thus optimize the total energy output of wind farm. In the paper, extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm and bonferroni interval are applied to estimate fault degree while analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to estimate the health condition level. A scheme for power dispatch control is formulated based on the estimated health condition. Models have been identified from supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data acquired from an operational wind farm, which contains temperature data of gearbox bearing and generator winding. The results show that the proposed method can maximize the operation efficiency of the wind farm while significantly reduce the fatigue loading on the faulty wind turbines