A survey of outlier detection methodologies

Outlier detection has been used for centuries to detect and, where appropriate, remove anomalous observations from data. Outliers arise due to mechanical faults, changes in system behaviour, fraudulent behaviour, human error, instrument error or simply through natural deviations in populations. Their detection can identify system faults and fraud before they escalate with potentially catastrophic consequences. It can identify errors and remove their contaminating effect on the data set and as such to purify the data for processing. The original outlier detection methods were arbitrary but now, principled and systematic techniques are used, drawn from the full gamut of Computer Science and Statistics. In this paper, we introduce a survey of contemporary techniques for outlier detection. We identify their respective motivations and distinguish their advantages and disadvantages in a comparative review

Parameter estimation algorithm for multivariable controlled autoregressive autoregressive moving average systems

This paper investigates parameter estimation problems for multivariable controlled autoregressive autoregressive moving average (M-CARARMA) systems. In order to improve the performance of the standard multivariable generalized extended stochastic gradient (M-GESG) algorithm, we derive a partially coupled generalized extended stochastic gradient algorithm by using the auxiliary model. In particular, we divide the identification model into several subsystems based on the hierarchical identification principle and estimate the parameters using the coupled relationship between these subsystems. The simulation results show that the new algorithm can give more accurate parameter estimates of the M-CARARMA system than the M-GESG algorithm

Combined state and parameter estimation for Hammerstein systems with time-delay using the Kalman filtering

This paper discusses the state and parameter estimation problem for a class of Hammerstein state space systems with time-delay. Both the process noise and the measurement noise are considered in the system. Based on the observable canonical state space form and the key term separation, a pseudo-linear regressive identification model is obtained. For the unknown states in the information vector, the Kalman filter is used to search for the optimal state estimates. A Kalman-filter based least squares iterative and a recursive least squares algorithms are proposed. Extending the information vector to include the latest information terms which are missed for the time-delay, the Kalman-filter based recursive extended least squares algorithm is derived to obtain the estimates of the unknown time-delay, parameters and states. The numerical simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms

A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models