94 research outputs found
Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction
Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conducted lot font popular ensemble strategics on five real-life chin n data sets In general, the results demonstrate how lift performance can be substantially improved by using alternative base classifiers and fusion tides However: the effect vanes lot the (Idol cut ensemble strategies lit particular, the results indicate an increase of lift performance of (1) Bagging by implementing C4 4 base classifiets. (n) the Random Subspace Method (RSM) by using lift-weighted fusion rules, and (in) AdaBoost, by implementing both
A Customer Churn Detection Model for the Pay-TV Sector
Ponència presentada en el 23rd International Conference of the Catalan Association for Artificial Intelligenc
Negative Correlation Learning for Customer Churn Prediction: A Comparison Study
Recently, telecommunication companies have been paying more attention toward the problem of identification of customer churn behavior. In business, it is well known for service providers that attracting new customers is much more expensive than retaining existing ones. Therefore, adopting accurate models that are able to predict customer churn can effectively help in customer retention campaigns and maximizing the profit. In this paper we will utilize an ensemble of Multilayer perceptrons
(MLP) whose training is obtained using negative correlation learning
(NCL) for predicting customer churn in a telecommunication company.
Experiments results confirm that NCL based MLP ensemble can achieve
better generalization performance (high churn rate) compared with ensemble
of MLP without NCL (flat ensemble) and other common data
mining techniques used for churn analysis
Handling class imbalance in credit card fraud using resampling methods
Credit card based online payments has grown intensely, compelling the financial organisations to implement and continuously improve their fraud detection system. However, credit card fraud dataset is heavily imbalanced and different types of misclassification errors may have different costs and it is essential to control them, to a certain degree, to compromise those errors. Classification techniques are the promising solutions to detect the fraud and non-fraud transactions. Unfortunately, in a certain condition, classification techniques do not perform well when it comes to huge numbers of differences in minority and majority cases. Hence in this study, resampling methods, Random Under Sampling, Random Over Sampling and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique, were applied in the credit card dataset to overcome the rare events in the dataset. Then, the three resampled datasets were classified using classification techniques. The performances were measured by their sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, area under curve (AUC) and error rate. The findings disclosed that by resampling the dataset, the models were more practicable, gave better performance and were statistically better
Customer churn prediction in telecom using machine learning and social network analysis in big data platform
Customer churn is a major problem and one of the most important concerns for
large companies. Due to the direct effect on the revenues of the companies,
especially in the telecom field, companies are seeking to develop means to
predict potential customer to churn. Therefore, finding factors that increase
customer churn is important to take necessary actions to reduce this churn. The
main contribution of our work is to develop a churn prediction model which
assists telecom operators to predict customers who are most likely subject to
churn. The model developed in this work uses machine learning techniques on big
data platform and builds a new way of features' engineering and selection. In
order to measure the performance of the model, the Area Under Curve (AUC)
standard measure is adopted, and the AUC value obtained is 93.3%. Another main
contribution is to use customer social network in the prediction model by
extracting Social Network Analysis (SNA) features. The use of SNA enhanced the
performance of the model from 84 to 93.3% against AUC standard. The model was
prepared and tested through Spark environment by working on a large dataset
created by transforming big raw data provided by SyriaTel telecom company. The
dataset contained all customers' information over 9 months, and was used to
train, test, and evaluate the system at SyriaTel. The model experimented four
algorithms: Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Machine Tree "GBM"
and Extreme Gradient Boosting "XGBOOST". However, the best results were
obtained by applying XGBOOST algorithm. This algorithm was used for
classification in this churn predictive model.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures. PDF https://rdcu.be/budK
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