Wants and Past Knowledge: Growth Cycles with Emerging Industries

This paper develops a theory of endogenous growth cycles focusing on the interaction between consumers' desire to satisfy an indefinite range of wants and firms' incentive to utilize knowledge from past production experiences. We show that firms endogenously form a number of distinguishable industries as accumulated knowledge induces them to agglomerate in the technology space. Knowledge accumulation in existing industries reduces production costs, but, as the diminishing returns from learning sets in, some firms start to adopt previously unexplored technologies so that their new goods fit consumers' unsatisfied wants and attract large demand. Thus, sporadic emergence of new industries generates growth cycles, where both the timing and the new technology to be adopted are endogenously determined. New industries based on new technology reduce the rate of per capita GDP growth in the initial phase, but nonetheless are indispensable for sustained economic growth in the long run.endogenous growth, technology choice, wants, knowledge, cycles.

Entropy in the creation of knowledge: a candidate source of endogenous business cycles

Two sector growth models, with physical goods and human capital produced under distinct technologies, generally consider a process of knowledge obsolescence / depreciation that is similar to the depreciation process of physical goods. As a consequence, the long term rate of per capita growth of the main economic aggregates is constant over time. This rate can be endogenously determined (in endogenous growth models, where production is subject to constant returns) or it can be the result of exogenous forces, like technological progress or population dynamics (in neoclassical growth theory, where decreasing marginal returns prevail). In this paper, we introduce a new assumption about the generation of knowledge, which involves entropy, i.e., introducing additional knowledge to generate more knowledge becomes counterproductive after a given point. The new assumption is explored in scenarios of neoclassical and endogenous growth and it is able to justify endogenous fluctuations. Entropy in the creation of knowledge will imply that human capital does not grow steadily over time. Instead, cycles of various periodicities are observable for different degrees of entropy. Complete a-periodicity (chaos) is also found for particular values of an entropy parameter. This behaviour of the human capital variable spreads to the whole economy given that this input is used in the production of final goods and, thus, main economic aggregates time paths (i.e., the time paths of physical capital, consumption and output) will also evolve following a cyclical pattern. With this argument, we intend to give support to the view of endogenous business cycles in the growth process, which is alternative to the two mainstream views on business cycles: the RBC theory and the Keynesian interpretation.Growth theory; Endogenous business cycles; Nonlinear dynamics; Entropy; Knowledge

The long wave of conditional convergence

We calculate the time series of the speed of convergence for 21 high-income countries over the period: 1953-1996, using low-pass filtered time series of per-capita GDP which are thus isolated from the influence of the short-run business cycle components. The observed patterns contradict the conventional ‘time-invariant speed of convergence’ hypothesis. Furthermore, dynamic panel data analysis provides strong evidence of the existence of stationary long cycles in the per capita GDP time series. We develop and estimate a technology-diffusion-based endogenous growth model, which shows that the endogenous growth of the domestic knowledge stock can account for the long cycles observed in the data. <br><br> Keywords; trend reversion, speed of convergence, growth cycles

I - Q Cycles

We develop a model of 'intrinsic' business cycles, driven by the decentralized behaviour of entrepreneurs and firms making continuous, divisible improvements in their productivity. We show how equilibrium cycles, associated with strategic delays in implementation and endogenous innovation, arise even in the presence of reversible investment. We derive the implications for the cyclical evolution of both tangible (physical) and intangible (knowledge) capital. In particular, our framework is consistent with key aspects of the somewhat puzzling relationship between fixed capital formation and the stockmarket at business cycle frequencies.Tobin's Q, fixed capital formation, intangible investment, cycles and growth

Productivity gains during business cycles: what's normal?

Labor productivity growth is generally acknowledged to be procyclical. The author reviews the leading explanations for this, then uses two approaches to compare the time pattern of productivity gains over the business cycle. One approach describes the pattern in terms of the number of quarters of growth since the cycle's trough; the other uses knowledge about the ends of past recoveries to describe the typical pattern of productivity gains as a cycle ages.Labor productivity ; Business cycles

Technological opportunity, long-run growth and convergence

We derive an R&D-based semi-endogenous growth model where technological progress depends on the available amount of technological opportunity. Incremental innovations provide direct increases in the knowledge stock but they reduce technological opportunity and thus the potential for further improvements. Technological opportunity can be renewed only by radical innovations (which have no direct impact on factor productivity). Investigating the model for its implications on economic growth leads to two basic observations. One, in the long-run, a balanced growth path with a consstant and semi-endogenous long-run economic growth rate exists only in a specific knife-edge case which implies that technological opportunity and knowledge grow at equal rates. Two, the transition need not be monotonic. Specifically, we show under which conditions our model generates endogenous business cylces via complex dynamics without uncertainty.Technological opportunity, incremental innovation, radical innovation, endogenous busuness cycles, balanced growth, Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, complex dynamics

Intrinsic Business Cycles with Pro-Cyclical R&D

Recent empirical work finds that R&D expenditures are quite procyclical, even for firms that are not redit-constrained during downturns. This has been taken as strong evidence against Schumpeterian-style theories of business cycles that emphasize the idea that downturns in production may be good times to allocate labor towards innovative activities. Here we argue that the procyclicality of R&D investment is, in fact, quite consistent with at least one of these theories. In our analysis, we emphasize three key features of R&D investment relative to other types of innovative activity: (1) it uses knowledge intensively, (2) it is a long-term investment with uncertain applications and (3) it suffers from diminishing returns over time.Schumpeterian, R&D investment, endogenous cycles, endogenous growth

Capital Inflows and Capital Outflows: Measurement, Determinants, Consequences

This paper develops new estimates of capital outflows and is the first, to our knowledge, to analyze the determinants, consequences and inter-relationship between inflows and outflows. Given the dynamics and individual country effects, we use a panel-VAR and find that inflows and outflows are inter-related, that lower inflows/higher outflows lead to lower growth, and among other effects to a higher fiscal deficit, which feeds back to lower inflows/higher outflows. These results provide evidence of vicious and virtuous cycles. We find no strong evidence that official flows crowd-in private ones. We conclude it is particularly important for developing countries to maintain prudent policies, and especially adequate fiscal discipline, to avoid vicious and reinforce virtuous cycles.

The Pro-cyclical R&D Puzzle: Technology Shocks and Pro-cyclical R&D Expenditure

Empirically R&D expenditure moves pro-cyclically, but the pro- cyclicality is a puzzle from the Schumpeterian point of view. The paper examines the cyclical property of R&D expenditure in the context of endogenous growth, and concludes that (i) substitutability between investing in physical capital and investing in technology/knowledge is a key of the cyclical property of R&D, (ii) basically technology shocks accompany counter-cyclical R&D and demand shocks accompany pro-cyclical R&D, and (iii) the easiest way to solve the pro-cyclical R&D puzzle is to abandon the conjecture that business cycles are generated mainly by technology shocks.R&D; Technology shock; Business cycle; Schumpeterian; Endogenous growth

Global Dialogue Report - Sustainability and Growth: Sao Paulo

The Global Dialogue on Sustainability, Climate Change and Economic Growth was held in São Paulo in October 2011. It was co-organised by the Brazilian Centre for Analysis and Planning (CEBRAP) and the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The idea was to bring together practitioners and thinkers to explore through dialogue the key issues relating to sustainability, climate change and economic growth both now and over the next 20 or 30 years. It was a diverse and broad-based gathering that not only included entrepreneurs, directors of philanthropic organisations and researchers but also made a particular effort to include spokespeople from marginalised communities -- indigenous and riverine small-holder representatives from the Amazon and Atlantic rainforest regions and a pastoralist representative from Ethiopia -- who have often been excluded from conventional debates about sustainability, climate change and economic growth. These conventional debates focus on the biological and scientific aspects of environmental resilience, climate change and conservation, and often overlook indigenous people whose knowledge is key to meeting these challenges but whose livelihoods and wellbeing are threatened by unrestrained economic growth and technological expansion. The key issues for philanthropists identified during the Dialogue were: Recognising diversity and respecting plural perspectives on challenges and opportunities;Facilitating autonomy through hands-on engagement with grassroots initiatives, going beyond short-term project cycles and allowing for local-level learning;Supporting relationships, helping to build networks and broker connections between different levels, sectors and interests; andAddressing power and politics in both forms of knowledge (integrating the social and the biological) and governance and decision-making processes, recognising that democratisation plays a critical role in relation to sustainability, climate change and economic growth