Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development

The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art

Neurons and symbols: a manifesto

We discuss the purpose of neural-symbolic integration including its principles, mechanisms and applications. We outline a cognitive computational model for neural-symbolic integration, position the model in the broader context of multi-agent systems, machine learning and automated reasoning, and list some of the challenges for the area of neural-symbolic computation to achieve the promise of effective integration of robust learning and expressive reasoning under uncertainty

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version

Methods for evaluating Decision Problems with Limited Information

LImited Memory Influence Diagrams (LIMIDs) are general models of decision problems for representing limited memory policies (Lauritzen and Nilsson (2001)). The evaluation of LIMIDs can be done by Single Policy Updating that produces a local maximum strategy in which no single policy modification can increase the expected utility. This paper examines the quality of the obtained local maximum strategy and proposes three different methods for evaluating LIMIDs. The first algorithm, Temporal Policy Updating, resembles Single Policy Updating. The second algorithm, Greedy Search, successively updates the policy that gives the highest expected utility improvement. The final algorithm, Simulating Annealing, differs from the two preceeding by allowing the search to take some downhill steps to escape a local maximum. A careful comparison of the algorithms is provided both in terms of the quality of the obtained strategies, and in terms of implementation of the algorithms including some considerations of the computational complexity