A Simple Model of Epidemics with Pathogen Mutation

We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted individuals becoming infected only if they are exposed to strains that are significantly different from other strains in their memory repertoire. The second model is a reduction of the first to a system of difference equations. In this case, individuals spend a fixed amount of time in a generalized immune class. In both models, we observe four fundamentally different types of behavior, depending on parameters: (1) pathogen extinction due to lack of contact between individuals, (2) endemic infection (3) periodic epidemic outbreaks, and (4) one or more outbreaks followed by extinction of the epidemic due to extremely low minima in the oscillations. We analyze both models to determine the location of each transition. Our main result is that pathogens in highly connected populations must mutate rapidly in order to remain viable.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figure

Oscillation-free method for semilinear diffusion equations under noisy initial conditions

Noise in initial conditions from measurement errors can create unwanted oscillations which propagate in numerical solutions. We present a technique of prohibiting such oscillation errors when solving initial-boundary-value problems of semilinear diffusion equations. Symmetric Strang splitting is applied to the equation for solving the linear diffusion and nonlinear remainder separately. An oscillation-free scheme is developed for overcoming any oscillatory behavior when numerically solving the linear diffusion portion. To demonstrate the ills of stable oscillations, we compare our method using a weighted implicit Euler scheme to the Crank-Nicolson method. The oscillation-free feature and stability of our method are analyzed through a local linearization. The accuracy of our oscillation-free method is proved and its usefulness is further verified through solving a Fisher-type equation where oscillation-free solutions are successfully produced in spite of random errors in the initial conditions.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figure

Birhythmicity, Synchronization, and Turbulence in an Oscillatory System with Nonlocal Inertial Coupling

We consider a model where a population of diffusively coupled limit-cycle oscillators, described by the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, interacts nonlocally via an inertial field. For sufficiently high intensity of nonlocal inertial coupling, the system exhibits birhythmicity with two oscillation modes at largely different frequencies. Stability of uniform oscillations in the birhythmic region is analyzed by means of the phase dynamics approximation. Numerical simulations show that, depending on its parameters, the system has irregular intermittent regimes with local bursts of synchronization or desynchronization.Comment: 21 pages, many figures. Paper accepted on Physica