A Holling-Tanner predator-prey model with strong Allee effect

We analyse a modified Holling-Tanner predator-prey model where the predation functional response is of Holling type II and we incorporate a strong Allee effect associated with the prey species production. The analysis complements results of previous articles by Saez and Gonzalez-Olivares (SIAM J. Appl. Math. 59 1867-1878, 1999) and Arancibia-Ibarra and Gonzalez-Olivares (Proc. CMMSE 2015 130-141, 2015)discussing Holling-Tanner models which incorporate a weak Allee effect. The extended model exhibits rich dynamics and we prove the existence of separatrices in the phase plane separating basins of attraction related to co-existence and extinction of the species. We also show the existence of a homoclinic curve that degenerates to form a limit cycle and discuss numerous potential bifurcations such as saddle-node, Hopf, and Bogadonov-Takens bifurcations

Qualitative Analysis of a Modified Leslie-Gower Predator-prey Model with Weak Allee Effect II

The article aims to study a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with Allee effect II, affecting the functional response with the assumption that the extent to which the environment provides protection to both predator and prey is the same. The model has been studied analytically as well as numerically, including stability and bifurcation analysis. Compared with the predator-prey model without Allee effect, it is found that the weak Allee effect II can bring rich and complicated dynamics, such as the model undergoes to a series of bifurcations (Homoclinic, Hopf, Saddle-node and Bogdanov-Takens). The existence of Hopf bifurcation has been shown for models with (without) Allee effect and the local existence and stability of the limit cycle emerging through Hopf bifurcation has also been studied. The phase portrait diagrams are sketched to validate analytical and numerical findings

Qualitative Analysis of a Modified Leslie-Gower Predator-prey Model with Weak Allee Effect II

The article aims to study a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with Allee effect II, affecting the functional response with the assumption that the extent to which the environment provides protection to both predator and prey is the same. The model has been studied analytically as well as numerically, including stability and bifurcation analysis. Compared with the predator-prey model without Allee effect, it is found that the weak Allee effect II can bring rich and complicated dynamics, such as the model undergoes to a series of bifurcations (Homoclinic, Hopf, Saddle-node and Bogdanov-Takens). The existence of Hopf bifurcation has been shown for models with (with- out) Allee effect and the local existence and stability of the limit cycle emerging through Hopf bifurcation has also been studied. The phase portrait diagrams are sketched to validate analytical and numerical findings

High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited

Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations

STOCHASTIC DELAY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH APPLICATIONS IN ECOLOGY AND EPIDEMICS

Mathematical modeling with delay differential equations (DDEs) is widely used for analysis and predictions in various areas of life sciences, such as population dynamics, epidemiology, immunology, physiology, and neural networks. The memory or time-delays, in these models, are related to the duration of certain hidden processes like the stages of the life cycle, the time between infection of a cell and the production of new viruses, the duration of the infectious period, the immune period, and so on. In ordinary differential equations (ODEs), the unknown state and its derivatives are evaluated at the same time instant. In DDEs, however, the evolution of the system at a certain time instant depends on the past history/memory. Introduction of such time-delays in a differential model significantly improves the dynamics of the model and enriches the complexity of the system. Moreover, natural phenomena counter an environmental noise and usually do not follow deterministic laws strictly but oscillate randomly about some average values, so that the population density never attains a fixed value with the advancement of time. Accordingly, stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) models play a prominent role in many application areas including biology, epidemiology and population dynamics, mostly because they can offer a more sophisticated insight through physical phenomena than their deterministic counterparts do. The SDDEs can be regarded as a generalization of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and DDEs.This dissertation, consists of eight Chapters, is concerned with qualitative and quantitative features of deterministic and stochastic delay differential equations with applications in ecology and epidemics. The local and global stabilities of the steady states and Hopf bifurcations with respect of interesting parameters of such models are investigated. The impact of incorporating time-delays and random noise in such class of differential equations for different types of predator-prey systems and infectious diseases is studied. Numerical simulations, using suitable and reliable numerical schemes, are provided to show the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.Chapter 1 provides a brief overview about the topic and shows significance of the study. Chapter 2, is devoted to investigate the qualitative behaviours (through local and global stability of the steady states) of DDEs with predator-prey systems in case of hunting cooperation on predators. Chapter 3 deals with the dynamics of DDEs, of multiple time-delays, of two-prey one-predator system, where the growth of both preys populations subject to Allee effects, with a direct competition between the two-prey species having a common predator. A Lyapunov functional is deducted to investigate the global stability of positive interior equilibrium. Chapter 4, studies the dynamics of stochastic DDEs for predator-prey system with hunting cooperation in predators. Existence and uniqueness of global positive solution and stochastically ultimate boundedness are investigated. Some sufficient conditions for persistence and extinction, using Lyapunov functional, are obtained. Chapter 5 is devoted to investigate Stochastic DDEs of three-species predator prey system with cooperation among prey species. Sufficient conditions of existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solution to the model are established, by constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional. Chapter 6 deals with stochastic epidemic SIRC model with time-delay for spread of COVID-19 among population. The basic reproduction number ℛs0 for the stochastic model which is smaller than ℛ0 of the corresponding deterministic model is deduced. Sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution, using the stochastic Lyapunov functional, and conditions for the extinction of the disease are obtained. In Chapter 7, some numerical schemes for SDDEs are discussed. Convergence and consistency of such schemes are investigated. Chapter 8 summaries the main finding and future directions of research. The main findings, theoretically and numerically, show that time-delays and random noise have a significant impact in the dynamics of ecological and biological systems. They also have an important role in ecological balance and environmental stability of living organisms. A small scale of white noise can promote the survival of population; While large noises can lead to extinction of the population, this would not happen in the deterministic systems without noises. Also, white noise plays an important part in controlling the spread of the disease; When the white noise is relatively large, the infectious diseases will become extinct; Re-infection and periodic outbreaks can also occur due to the time-delay in the transmission terms