Controlling pandemics: solutions to prevent the next pandemic

© 2020 The Author. Published by Enliven Archive. This is an open access article available under a Creative Commons licence. The published version can be accessed at the following link on the publisher’s website: http://www.enlivenarchive.org/articles/controlling-pandemics-solutions-to-prevent-the-next-pandemic.pdfCOVID-19 has been a major issue in most countries throughout the world with 213 countries being affected till date due to the disease. The pandemic has raised concerns over the healthcare facilities available in various countries and question the government decisions made during this period of outbreak. Despite having the best healthcare facilities several countries across Europe and America have found it difficult to contain the disease outbreak questioning the available solutions to contain an area. This paper focuses on presenting information on solutions available to control outbreaks in order to prevent another pandemic occurring in the future. The paper also highlights the strategies and plans implemented by various governments who have been successful in combatting the disease with minimum damage. By using available resources such as technology, scientific innovation and digitalized healthcare this paper focuses on providing solutions which are already available to be utilized in the right manner

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationPublic health surveillance systems are crucial for the timely detection and response to public health threats. Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the release of anthrax in the following month, there has been a heightened interest in public health surveillance. The years immediately following these attacks were met with increased awareness and funding from the federal government which has significantly strengthened the United States surveillance capabilities; however, despite these improvements, there are substantial challenges faced by today's public health surveillance systems. Problems with the current surveillance systems include: a) lack of leveraging unstructured public health data for surveillance purposes; and b) lack of information integration and the ability to leverage resources, applications or other surveillance efforts due to systems being built on a centralized model. This research addresses these problems by focusing on the development and evaluation of new informatics methods to improve the public health surveillance. To address the problems above, we first identified a current public surveillance workflow which is affected by the problems described and has the opportunity for enhancement through current informatics techniques. The 122 Mortality Surveillance for Pneumonia and Influenza was chosen as the primary use case for this dissertation work. The second step involved demonstrating the feasibility of using unstructured public health data, in this case death certificates. For this we created and evaluated a pipeline iv composed of a detection rule and natural language processor, for the coding of death certificates and the identification of pneumonia and influenza cases. The second problem was addressed by presenting the rationale of creating a federated model by leveraging grid technology concepts and tools for the sharing and epidemiological analyses of public health data. As a case study of this approach, a secured virtual organization was created where users are able to access two grid data services, using death certificates from the Utah Department of Health, and two analytical grid services, MetaMap and R. A scientific workflow was created using the published services to replicate the mortality surveillance workflow. To validate these approaches, and provide proofs-of-concepts, a series of real-world scenarios were conducted

Evaluation des systèmes d'intelligence épidémiologique appliqués à la détection précoce des maladies infectieuses au niveau mondial.

Our work demonstrated the performance of the epidemic intelligence systems used for the early detection of infectious diseases in the world, the specific added value of each system, the greater intrinsic sensitivity of moderated systems and the variability of the type information source’s used. The creation of a combined virtual system incorporating the best result of the seven systems showed gains in terms of sensitivity and timeliness that would result from the integration of these individual systems into a supra-system. They have shown the limits of these tools and in particular: the low positive predictive value of the raw signals detected, the variability of the detection capacities for the same disease, but also the significant influence played by the type of pathology, the language and the region of occurrence on the detection of infectious events. They established the wide variety of epidemic intelligence strategies used by public health institutions to meet their specific needs and the impact of these strategies on the nature, the geographic origin and the number of events reported. As well, they illustrated that under conditions close to the routine, epidemic intelligence permitted the detection of infectious events on average one to two weeks before their official notification, hence allowing to alert health authorities and therefore the anticipating the implementation of eventual control measures. Our work opens new fields of investigation which applications could be important for both users systems.Nos travaux ont démontré les performances des systèmes d’intelligence épidémiologique en matière de détection précoce des évènements infectieux au niveau mondial, la valeur ajoutée spécifique de chaque système, la plus grande sensibilité intrinsèque des systèmes modérés et la variabilité du type de source d’information utilisé. La création d’un système virtuel combiné intégrant le meilleur résultat des sept systèmes a démontré les gains en termes de sensibilité et de réactivité, qui résulterait de l’intégration de ces systèmes individuels dans un supra-système. Ils ont illustrés les limites de ces outils et en particulier la faible valeur prédictive positive des signaux bruts détectés, la variabilité les capacités de détection pour une même pathologie, mais également l’influence significative jouée par le type de pathologie, la langue et la région de survenue sur les capacités de détection des évènements infectieux. Ils ont établis la grande diversité des stratégies d’intelligence épidémiologique mises en œuvre par les institutions de santé publique pour répondre à leurs besoins spécifiques et l’impact de ces stratégies sur la nature, l’origine géographique et le nombre des évènements rapportés. Ils ont également montré que dans des conditions proches de la routine, l’intelligence épidémiologique permettait la détection d’évènements infectieux en moyenne une à deux semaines avant leur notification officielle, permettant ainsi d’alerter les autorités sanitaires et d’anticiper la mise en œuvre d’éventuelles mesures de contrôle. Nos travaux ouvrent de nouveaux champs d’investigations dont les applications pourraient être importantes pour les utilisateurs comme pour les systèmes

Enhancing outbreak early warning surveillance in resource-limited Pacific island countries and territories

Comprehensive, timely, and accurate health data are essential for the detection of outbreak-prone diseases. If these go unnoticed or are identified late, they pose significant risks to the health of a population. In the Pacific islands, a syndrome-based surveillance strategy, known as the Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System (PSSS), is employed for the early detection of outbreaks. The PSSS, implemented in 2010, has provided a mechanism by which resource-limited Pacific island governments have been able to perform routine surveillance activities and address many of their national and international health protection needs and obligations. Despite being a cornerstone of health protection for many Pacific islands, the surveillance system had not been comprehensively evaluated. Nor had behavioural, technical, or upstream health system factors that influence its performance been investigated. This thesis assesses whether the PSSS is meeting its stated objectives and produces evidence to augment technical and operational elements of the system. The thesis answers the following questions: (i) is the PSSS meeting its stated objectives? (ii) are algorithm-based approaches to outbreak detection appropriate in the Pacific island systems and context?; (iii) how can the PSSS be enhanced to meet information needs during public health emergencies?; and (iv) what factors enable and constrain surveillance nurses’data collection and reporting practice? The thesis found that the surveillance system is simple, well regarded, trusted, and context-relevant mechanism that Pacific island governments from across the development spectrum have been able to adopt and maintain with minimal external technical or financial support. Despite these positive findings, the research identified several statistical, procedural, and broader systems barriers to optimal performance, including chronic staffing and other resource constraints, insufficient data on which to base outbreak detection analysis, and poor integration of health information systems. Looking ahead, the thesis identifies practical opportunities for system improvement and highlights areas for further research