The single individual in medicine: how to escape from the probability theory trap

Doctors and their patients are always concerned with the likely outcome of an existing disease and the risk of future diseases, but there are many problems in interpreting for the individual data derived from populations. Yet recent developments in mathematics and science should allow us to do much better

Neuropathological findings processed by artificial neural networks (ANNs) can perfectly distinguish Alzheimer's patients from controls in the Nun Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many reports have described that there are fewer differences in AD brain neuropathologic lesions between AD patients and control subjects aged 80 years and older, as compared with the considerable differences between younger persons with AD and controls. In fact some investigators have suggested that since neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) can be identified in the brains of non-demented elderly subjects they should be considered as a consequence of the aging process. At present, there are no universally accepted neuropathological criteria which can mathematically differentiate AD from healthy brain in the oldest old.</p> <p>The aim of this study is to discover the hidden and non-linear associations among AD pathognomonic brain lesions and the clinical diagnosis of AD in participants in the Nun Study through Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) analysis</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The analyses were based on 26 clinically- and pathologically-confirmed AD cases and 36 controls who had normal cognitive function. The inputs used for the analyses were just NFT and neuritic plaques counts in neocortex and hippocampus, for which, despite substantial differences in mean lesions counts between AD cases and controls, there was a substantial overlap in the range of lesion counts.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By taking into account the above four neuropathological features, the overall predictive capability of ANNs in sorting out AD cases from normal controls reached 100%. The corresponding accuracy obtained with Linear Discriminant Analysis was 92.30%. These results were consistently obtained in ten independent experiments. The same experiments were carried out with ANNs on a subgroup of 13 non severe AD patients and on the same 36 controls. The results obtained in terms of prediction accuracy with ANNs were exactly the same.</p> <p>Input relevance analysis confirmed the relative dominance of NFT in neocortex in discriminating between AD patients and controls and indicated the lesser importance played by NP in the hippocampus.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study suggest that: a) cortical NFT represent the key variable in AD neuropathology; b) the neuropathologic profile of AD subjects is complex, however, c) ANNs can analyze neuropathologic features and differentiate AD cases from controls.</p

Neuropathological findings processed by artificial neural networks (ANNs) can perfectly distinguish Alzheimer\u27s patients from controls in the Nun Study

BACKGROUND: Many reports have described that there are fewer differences in AD brain neuropathologic lesions between AD patients and control subjects aged 80 years and older, as compared with the considerable differences between younger persons with AD and controls. In fact some investigators have suggested that since neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) can be identified in the brains of non-demented elderly subjects they should be considered as a consequence of the aging process. At present, there are no universally accepted neuropathological criteria which can mathematically differentiate AD from healthy brain in the oldest old. The aim of this study is to discover the hidden and non-linear associations among AD pathognomonic brain lesions and the clinical diagnosis of AD in participants in the Nun Study through Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) analysis. METHODS: The analyses were based on 26 clinically- and pathologically-confirmed AD cases and 36 controls who had normal cognitive function. The inputs used for the analyses were just NFT and neuritic plaques counts in neocortex and hippocampus, for which, despite substantial differences in mean lesions counts between AD cases and controls, there was a substantial overlap in the range of lesion counts. RESULTS: By taking into account the above four neuropathological features, the overall predictive capability of ANNs in sorting out AD cases from normal controls reached 100%. The corresponding accuracy obtained with Linear Discriminant Analysis was 92.30%. These results were consistently obtained in ten independent experiments. The same experiments were carried out with ANNs on a subgroup of 13 non severe AD patients and on the same 36 controls. The results obtained in terms of prediction accuracy with ANNs were exactly the same. Input relevance analysis confirmed the relative dominance of NFT in neocortex in discriminating between AD patients and controls and indicated the lesser importance played by NP in the hippocampus. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that: a) cortical NFT represent the key variable in AD neuropathology; b) the neuropathologic profile of AD subjects is complex, however, c) ANNs can analyze neuropathologic features and differentiate AD cases from controls

Prediction of Resting Energy Expenditure in Children: May Artificial Neural Networks Improve Our Accuracy?

The inaccuracy of resting energy expenditure (REE) prediction formulae to calculate energy metabolism in children may lead to either under- or overestimated real caloric needs with clinical consequences. The aim of this paper was to apply artificial neural networks algorithms (ANNs) to REE prediction. We enrolled 561 healthy children (2-17 years). Nutritional status was classified according to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, and 113 were obese. REE was measured using indirect calorimetry and estimated with WHO, Harris-Benedict, Schofield, and Oxford formulae. The ANNs considered specific anthropometric data to model REE. The mean absolute error (mean \ub1 SD) of the prediction was 95.8 \ub1 80.8 and was strongly correlated with REE values (R2 = 0.88). The performance of ANNs was higher in the subgroup of obese children (101 \ub1 91.8) with a lower grade of imprecision (5.4%). ANNs as a novel approach may give valuable information regarding energy requirements and weight management in children

Portable RF-Sensor System for the Monitoring of Air Pollution and Water Contamination

Monitoring air pollution including the contents of VOC, O 3 , NO 2 , and dusts has attracted a lot of interest in addition to the monitoring of water contamination because it affects directly to the quality of living conditions. Most of the current air pollution monitoring stations use the expensive and bulky instruments and are only installed in the very limited area. To bring the information of the air and water quality to the public in real time, it is important to construct portable monitoring systems and distribute them close to our everyday living places. In this work, we have constructed a low-cost portable RF sensor system by using 400 MHz transceiver to achieve this goal. Accuracy of the measurement was comparable to the ones used in the expensive and bulky commercial air pollution forecast systems

Placental determinants of fetal growth: identification of key factors in the insulin-like growth factor and cytokine systems using artificial neural networks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Changes and relationships of components of the cytokine and IGF systems have been shown in placenta and cord serum of fetal growth restricted (FGR) compared with normal newborns (AGA). This study aimed to analyse a data set of clinical and biochemical data in FGR and AGA newborns to assess if a mathematical model existed and was capable of identifying these two different conditions in order to identify the variables which had a mathematically consistent biological relevance to fetal growth.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Whole villous tissue was collected at birth from FGR (N = 20) and AGA neonates (N = 28). Total RNA was extracted, reverse transcribed and then real-time quantitative (TaqMan) RT-PCR was performed to quantify cDNA for IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IL-6. The corresponding proteins with TNF-α in addition were assayed in placental lysates using specific kits. The data were analysed using Artificial Neural Networks (supervised networks), and principal component analysis and connectivity map.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The IGF system and IL-6 allowed to predict FGR in approximately 92% of the cases and AGA in 85% of the cases with a low number of errors. IGF-II, IGFBP-2, and IL-6 content in the placental lysates were the most important factors connected with FGR. The condition of being FGR was connected mainly with the IGF-II placental content, and the latter with IL-6 and IGFBP-2 concentrations in placental lysates.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results suggest that further research in humans should focus on these biochemical data. Furthermore, this study offered a critical revision of previous studies. The understanding of this system biology is relevant to the development of future therapeutical interventions possibly aiming at reducing IL-6 and IGFBP-2 concentrations preserving IGF bioactivity in both placenta and fetus.</p

The Implicit Function as Squashing Time Model: A Novel Parallel Nonlinear EEG Analysis Technique Distinguishing Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease Subjects with High Degree of Accuracy

Objective. This paper presents the results obtained using a protocol based on special types of artificial neural networks (ANNs) assembled in a novel methodology able to compress the temporal sequence of electroencephalographic (EEG) data into spatial invariants for the automatic classification of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) subjects. With reference to the procedure reported in our previous study (2007), this protocol includes a new type of artificial organism, named TWIST. The working hypothesis was that compared to the results presented by the workgroup (2007); the new artificial organism TWIST could produce a better classification between AD and MCI. Material and methods. Resting eyes-closed EEG data were recorded in 180 AD patients and in 115 MCI subjects. The data inputs for the classification, instead of being the EEG data, were the weights of the connections within a nonlinear autoassociative ANN trained to generate the recorded data. The most relevant features were selected and coincidently the datasets were split in the two halves for the final binary classification (training and testing) performed by a supervised ANN. Results. The best results distinguishing between AD and MCI were equal to 94.10% and they are considerable better than the ones reported in our previous study (∼92%) (2007). Conclusion. The results confirm the working hypothesis that a correct automatic classification of MCI and AD subjects can be obtained by extracting spatial information content of the resting EEG voltage by ANNs and represent the basis for research aimed at integrating spatial and temporal information content of the EEG

Networks in coronary heart disease genetics as a step towards systems epidemiology

We present the use of innovative machine learning techniques in the understanding of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) through intermediate traits, as an example of the use of this class of methods as a first step towards a systems epidemiology approach of complex diseases genetics. Using a sample of 252 middle-aged men, of which 102 had a CHD event in 10 years follow-up, we applied machine learning algorithms for the selection of CHD intermediate phenotypes, established markers, risk factors, and their previously associated genetic polymorphisms, and constructed a map of relationships between the selected variables. Of the 52 variables considered, 42 were retained after selection of the most informative variables for CHD. The constructed map suggests that most selected variables were related to CHD in a context dependent manner while only a small number of variables were related to a specific outcome. We also observed that loss of complexity in the network was linked to a future CHD event. We propose that novel, non-linear, and integrative epidemiological approaches are required to combine all available information, in order to truly translate the new advances in medical sciences to gains in preventive measures and patients care.British Heart Foundation; European Commission; British Medical Research Council; the US National Institutes of Health and Du Pont Pharma, Wilmington