890 research outputs found

    Machine learning from real data: A mental health registry case study

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    Imbalanced datasets can impair the learning performance of many Machine Learning techniques. Nevertheless, many real-world datasets, especially in the healthcare field, are inherently imbalanced. For instance, in the medical domain, the classes representing a specific disease are typically the minority of the total cases. This challenge justifies the substantial research effort spent in the past decades to tackle data imbalance at the data and algorithm levels. In this paper, we describe the strategies we used to deal with an imbalanced classification task on data extracted from a database generated from the Electronic Health Records of the Mental Health Service of the Ferrara Province, Italy. In particular, we applied balancing techniques to the original data, such as random undersampling and oversampling, and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique for Nominal and Continuous (SMOTE-NC). In order to assess the effectiveness of the balancing techniques on the classification task at hand, we applied different Machine Learning algorithms. We employed cost-sensitive learning as well and compared its results with those of the balancing methods. Furthermore, a feature selection analysis was conducted to investigate the relevance of each feature. Results show that balancing can help find the best setting to accomplish classification tasks. Since real-world imbalanced datasets are increasingly becoming the core of scientific research, further studies are needed to improve already existing techniqu

    Enhancing Credit Card Fraud Detection: An Ensemble Machine Learning Approach

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    In the era of digital advancements, the escalation of credit card fraud necessitates the development of robust and efficient fraud detection systems. This paper delves into the application of machine learning models, specifically focusing on ensemble methods, to enhance credit card fraud detection. Through an extensive review of existing literature, we identified limitations in current fraud detection technologies, including issues like data imbalance, concept drift, false positives/negatives, limited generalisability, and challenges in real-time processing. To address some of these shortcomings, we propose a novel ensemble model that integrates a Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Boosting classifiers. This ensemble model tackles the dataset imbalance problem associated with most credit card datasets by implementing under-sampling and the Synthetic Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) on some machine learning algorithms. The evaluation of the model utilises a dataset comprising transaction records from European credit card holders, providing a realistic scenario for assessment. The methodology of the proposed model encompasses data pre-processing, feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation, with Google Colab computational capabilities facilitating efficient model training and testing. Comparative analysis between the proposed ensemble model, traditional machine learning methods, and individual classifiers reveals the superior performance of the ensemble in mitigating challenges associated with credit card fraud detection. Across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics, the ensemble outperforms existing models. This paper underscores the efficacy of ensemble methods as a valuable tool in the battle against fraudulent transactions. The findings presented lay the groundwork for future advancements in the development of more resilient and adaptive fraud detection systems, which will become crucial as credit card fraud techniques continue to evolve

    Advances in machine learning algorithms for financial risk management

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    In this thesis, three novel machine learning techniques are introduced to address distinct yet interrelated challenges involved in financial risk management tasks. These approaches collectively offer a comprehensive strategy, beginning with the precise classification of credit risks, advancing through the nuanced forecasting of financial asset volatility, and ending with the strategic optimisation of financial asset portfolios. Firstly, a Hybrid Dual-Resampling and Cost-Sensitive technique has been proposed to combat the prevalent issue of class imbalance in financial datasets, particularly in credit risk assessment. The key process involves the creation of heuristically balanced datasets to effectively address the problem. It uses a resampling technique based on Gaussian mixture modelling to generate a synthetic minority class from the minority class data and concurrently uses k-means clustering on the majority class. Feature selection is then performed using the Extra Tree Ensemble technique. Subsequently, a cost-sensitive logistic regression model is then applied to predict the probability of default using the heuristically balanced datasets. The results underscore the effectiveness of our proposed technique, with superior performance observed in comparison to other imbalanced preprocessing approaches. This advancement in credit risk classification lays a solid foundation for understanding individual financial behaviours, a crucial first step in the broader context of financial risk management. Building on this foundation, the thesis then explores the forecasting of financial asset volatility, a critical aspect of understanding market dynamics. A novel model that combines a Triple Discriminator Generative Adversarial Network with a continuous wavelet transform is proposed. The proposed model has the ability to decompose volatility time series into signal-like and noise-like frequency components, to allow the separate detection and monitoring of non-stationary volatility data. The network comprises of a wavelet transform component consisting of continuous wavelet transforms and inverse wavelet transform components, an auto-encoder component made up of encoder and decoder networks, and a Generative Adversarial Network consisting of triple Discriminator and Generator networks. The proposed Generative Adversarial Network employs an ensemble of unsupervised loss derived from the Generative Adversarial Network component during training, supervised loss and reconstruction loss as part of its framework. Data from nine financial assets are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. This approach not only enhances our understanding of market fluctuations but also bridges the gap between individual credit risk assessment and macro-level market analysis. Finally the thesis ends with a novel proposal of a novel technique or Portfolio optimisation. This involves the use of a model-free reinforcement learning strategy for portfolio optimisation using historical Low, High, and Close prices of assets as input with weights of assets as output. A deep Capsules Network is employed to simulate the investment strategy, which involves the reallocation of the different assets to maximise the expected return on investment based on deep reinforcement learning. To provide more learning stability in an online training process, a Markov Differential Sharpe Ratio reward function has been proposed as the reinforcement learning objective function. Additionally, a Multi-Memory Weight Reservoir has also been introduced to facilitate the learning process and optimisation of computed asset weights, helping to sequentially re-balance the portfolio throughout a specified trading period. The use of the insights gained from volatility forecasting into this strategy shows the interconnected nature of the financial markets. Comparative experiments with other models demonstrated that our proposed technique is capable of achieving superior results based on risk-adjusted reward performance measures. In a nut-shell, this thesis not only addresses individual challenges in financial risk management but it also incorporates them into a comprehensive framework; from enhancing the accuracy of credit risk classification, through the improvement and understanding of market volatility, to optimisation of investment strategies. These methodologies collectively show the potential of the use of machine learning to improve financial risk management

    Enhancing credit card fraud detection: an ensemble machine learning approach

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    In the era of digital advancements, the escalation of credit card fraud necessitates the development of robust and efficient fraud detection systems. This paper delves into the application of machine learning models, specifically focusing on ensemble methods, to enhance credit card fraud detection. Through an extensive review of existing literature, we identified limitations in current fraud detection technologies, including issues like data imbalance, concept drift, false positives/negatives, limited generalisability, and challenges in real-time processing. To address some of these shortcomings, we propose a novel ensemble model that integrates a Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Boosting classifiers. This ensemble model tackles the dataset imbalance problem associated with most credit card datasets by implementing under-sampling and the Synthetic Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) on some machine learning algorithms. The evaluation of the model utilises a dataset comprising transaction records from European credit card holders, providing a realistic scenario for assessment. The methodology of the proposed model encompasses data pre-processing, feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation, with Google Colab computational capabilities facilitating efficient model training and testing. Comparative analysis between the proposed ensemble model, traditional machine learning methods, and individual classifiers reveals the superior performance of the ensemble in mitigating challenges associated with credit card fraud detection. Across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics, the ensemble outperforms existing models. This paper underscores the efficacy of ensemble methods as a valuable tool in the battle against fraudulent transactions. The findings presented lay the groundwork for future advancements in the development of more resilient and adaptive fraud detection systems, which will become crucial as credit card fraud techniques continue to evolve

    Will they take this offer? A machine learning price elasticity model for predicting upselling acceptance of premium airline seating

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    Employing customer information from one of the world's largest airline companies, we develop a price elasticity model (PREM) using machine learning to identify customers likely to purchase an upgrade offer from economy to premium class and predict a customer's acceptable price range. A simulation of 64.3 million flight bookings and 14.1 million email offers over three years mirroring actual data indicates that PREM implementation results in approximately 1.12 million (7.94%) fewer non-relevant customer email messages, a predicted increase of 72,200 (37.2%) offers accepted, and an estimated $72.2 million (37.2%) of increased revenue. Our results illustrate the potential of automated pricing information and targeting marketing messages for upselling acceptance. We also identified three customer segments: (1) Never Upgrades are those who never take the upgrade offer, (2) Upgrade Lovers are those who generally upgrade, and (3) Upgrade Lover Lookalikes have no historical record but fit the profile of those that tend to upgrade. We discuss the implications for airline companies and related travel and tourism industries.© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

    QAmplifyNet: Pushing the Boundaries of Supply Chain Backorder Prediction Using Interpretable Hybrid Quantum - Classical Neural Network

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    Supply chain management relies on accurate backorder prediction for optimizing inventory control, reducing costs, and enhancing customer satisfaction. However, traditional machine-learning models struggle with large-scale datasets and complex relationships, hindering real-world data collection. This research introduces a novel methodological framework for supply chain backorder prediction, addressing the challenge of handling large datasets. Our proposed model, QAmplifyNet, employs quantum-inspired techniques within a quantum-classical neural network to predict backorders effectively on short and imbalanced datasets. Experimental evaluations on a benchmark dataset demonstrate QAmplifyNet's superiority over classical models, quantum ensembles, quantum neural networks, and deep reinforcement learning. Its proficiency in handling short, imbalanced datasets makes it an ideal solution for supply chain management. To enhance model interpretability, we use Explainable Artificial Intelligence techniques. Practical implications include improved inventory control, reduced backorders, and enhanced operational efficiency. QAmplifyNet seamlessly integrates into real-world supply chain management systems, enabling proactive decision-making and efficient resource allocation. Future work involves exploring additional quantum-inspired techniques, expanding the dataset, and investigating other supply chain applications. This research unlocks the potential of quantum computing in supply chain optimization and paves the way for further exploration of quantum-inspired machine learning models in supply chain management. Our framework and QAmplifyNet model offer a breakthrough approach to supply chain backorder prediction, providing superior performance and opening new avenues for leveraging quantum-inspired techniques in supply chain management

    Application of federated learning techniques for arrhythmia classification using 12-lead ECG signals

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    Artificial Intelligence-based (AI) analysis of large, curated medical datasets is promising for providing early detection, faster diagnosis, and more effective treatment using low-power Electrocardiography (ECG) monitoring devices information. However, accessing sensitive medical data from diverse sources is highly restricted since improper use, unsafe storage, or data leakage could violate a person's privacy. This work uses a Federated Learning (FL) privacy-preserving methodology to train AI models over heterogeneous sets of high-definition ECG from 12-lead sensor arrays collected from six heterogeneous sources. We evaluated the capacity of the resulting models to achieve equivalent performance compared to state-of-the-art models trained in a Centralized Learning (CL) fashion. Moreover, we assessed the performance of our solution over Independent and Identical distributed (IID) and non-IID federated data. Our methodology involves machine learning techniques based on Deep Neural Networks and Long-Short-Term Memory models. It has a robust data preprocessing pipeline with feature engineering, selection, and data balancing techniques. Our AI models demonstrated comparable performance to models trained using CL, IID, and non-IID approaches. They showcased advantages in reduced complexity and faster training time, making them well-suited for cloud-edge architectures.Comment: Preprint of International Symposium on Algorithmic Aspects of Cloud Computing (ALGOCLOUD) 202

    Topic Modeling based text classification regarding Islamophobia using Word Embedding and Transformers Techniques

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    Islamophobia is a rising area of concern in the current era where Muslims face discrimination and receive negative perspectives towards their religion, Islam. Islamophobia is a type of racism that is being practiced by individuals, groups, and organizations worldwide. Moreover, the ease of access to social media platforms and their augmented usage has also contributed to spreading hate speech, false information, and negative opinions about Islam. In this research study, we focused to detect Islamophobic textual content shared on various social media platforms. We explored the state-of-the-art techniques being followed in text data mining and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Topic modelling algorithm Latent Dirichlet Allocation is used to find top topics. Then, word embedding approaches such as Word2Vec and Global Vectors for word representation (GloVe) are used as feature extraction techniques. For text classification, we utilized modern text analysis techniques of transformers-based Deep Learning algorithms named Bidirectional Encoders Representation from Transformers (BERT) and Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT). For results comparison, we conducted an extensive empirical analysis of Machine Learning algorithms and Deep Learning using conventional textual features such as the Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency, N-gram, and Bag of words (BoW). The empirical based results evaluated using standard performance evaluation measures show that the proposed approach effectively detects the textual content related to Islamophobia. In the corpus of the study under Machine Learning models Support Vector Machine (SVM) performed best with an F1 score of 91%. The Transformer based core NLP models and the Deep Learning model Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) when combined with GloVe performed best among all the techniques except SVM with BoW. GPT, SVM when combined with BoW and BERT yielded the best F1 score of 92%, 92% and 91.9% respectively, while CNN performed slightly poor with an F1 score of 91%

    A review of technical factors to consider when designing neural networks for semantic segmentation of Earth Observation imagery

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    Semantic segmentation (classification) of Earth Observation imagery is a crucial task in remote sensing. This paper presents a comprehensive review of technical factors to consider when designing neural networks for this purpose. The review focuses on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), and transformer models, discussing prominent design patterns for these ANN families and their implications for semantic segmentation. Common pre-processing techniques for ensuring optimal data preparation are also covered. These include methods for image normalization and chipping, as well as strategies for addressing data imbalance in training samples, and techniques for overcoming limited data, including augmentation techniques, transfer learning, and domain adaptation. By encompassing both the technical aspects of neural network design and the data-related considerations, this review provides researchers and practitioners with a comprehensive and up-to-date understanding of the factors involved in designing effective neural networks for semantic segmentation of Earth Observation imagery.Comment: 145 pages with 32 figure

    Image Diversification via Deep Learning based Generative Models

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    Machine learning driven pattern recognition from imagery such as object detection has been prevalenting among society due to the high demand for autonomy and the recent remarkable advances in such technology. The machine learning technologies acquire the abstraction of the existing data and enable inference of the pattern of the future inputs. However, such technologies require a sheer amount of images as a training dataset which well covers the distribution of the future inputs in order to predict the proper patterns whereas it is impracticable to prepare enough variety of images in many cases. To address this problem, this thesis pursues to discover the method to diversify image datasets for fully enabling the capability of machine learning driven applications. Focusing on the plausible image synthesis ability of generative models, we investigate a number of approaches to expand the variety of the output images using image-to-image translation, mixup and diffusion models along with the technique to enable a computation and training dataset efficient diffusion approach. First, we propose the combined use of unpaired image-to-image translation and mixup for data augmentation on limited non-visible imagery. Second, we propose diffusion image-to-image translation that generates greater quality images than other previous adversarial training based translation methods. Third, we propose a patch-wise and discrete conditional training of diffusion method enabling the reduction of the computation and the robustness on small training datasets. Subsequently, we discuss a remaining open challenge about evaluation and the direction of future work. Lastly, we make an overall conclusion after stating social impact of this research field
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