Derivation of diagnostic models based on formalized process knowledge

© IFAC.Industrial systems are vulnerable to faults. Early and accurate detection and diagnosis in production systems can minimize down-time, increase the safety of the plant operation, and reduce manufacturing costs. Knowledge- and model-based approaches to automated fault detection and diagnosis have been demonstrated to be suitable for fault cause analysis within a broad range of industrial processes and research case studies. However, the implementation of these methods demands a complex and error-prone development phase, especially due to the extensive efforts required during the derivation of models and their respective validation. In an effort to reduce such modeling complexity, this paper presents a structured causal modeling approach to supporting the derivation of diagnostic models based on formalized process knowledge. The method described herein exploits the Formalized Process Description Guideline VDI/VDE 3682 to establish causal relations among key-process variables, develops an extension of the Signed Digraph model combined with the use of fuzzy set theory to allow more accurate causality descriptions, and proposes a representation of the resulting diagnostic model in CAEX/AutomationML targeting dynamic data access, portability, and seamless information exchange

Analysis and Application of Advanced Control Strategies to a Heating Element Nonlinear Model

open4siSustainable control has begun to stimulate research and development in a wide range of industrial communities particularly for systems that demand a high degree of reliability and availability (sustainability) and at the same time characterised by expensive and/or safety critical maintenance work. For heating systems such as HVAC plants, clear conflict exists between ensuring a high degree of availability and reducing costly maintenance times. HVAC systems have highly non-linear dynamics and a stochastic and uncontrollable driving force as input in the form of intake air speed, presenting an interesting challenge for modern control methods. Suitable control methods can provide sustainable maximisation of energy conversion efficiency over wider than normally expected air speeds and temperatures, whilst also giving a degree of “tolerance” to certain faults, providing an important impact on maintenance scheduling, e.g. by capturing the effects of some system faults before they become serious.This paper presents the design of different control strategies applied to a heating element nonlinear model. The description of this heating element was obtained exploiting a data driven and physically meaningful nonlinear continuous time model, which represents a test bed used in passive air conditioning for sustainable housing applications. This model has low complexity while achieving high simulation performance. The physical meaningfulness of the model provides an enhanced insight into the performance and functionality of the system. In return, this information can be used during the system simulation and improved model based and data driven control designs for tight temperature regulation. The main purpose of this study is thus to give several examples of viable and practical designs of control schemes with application to this heating element model. Moreover, extensive simulations and Monte Carlo analysis are the tools for assessing experimentally the main features of the proposed control schemes, in the presence of modelling and measurement errors. These developed control methods are also compared in order to evaluate advantages and drawbacks of the considered solutions. Finally, the exploited simulation tools can serve to highlight the potential application of the proposed control strategies to real air conditioning systems.openTurhan, T.; Simani, S.; Zajic, I.; Gokcen Akkurt, G.Turhan, T.; Simani, Silvio; Zajic, I.; Gokcen Akkurt, G

Energy performance forecasting of residential buildings using fuzzy approaches

The energy consumption used for domestic purposes in Europe is, to a considerable extent, due to heating and cooling. This energy is produced mostly by burning fossil fuels, which has a high negative environmental impact. The characteristics of a building are an important factor to determine the necessities of heating and cooling loads. Therefore, the study of the relevant characteristics of the buildings, regarding the heating and cooling needed to maintain comfortable indoor air conditions, could be very useful in order to design and construct energy-efficient buildings. In previous studies, different machine-learning approaches have been used to predict heating and cooling loads from the set of variables: relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area and glazing area distribution. However, none of these methods are based on fuzzy logic. In this research, we study two fuzzy logic approaches, i.e., fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), to deal with the same problem. Fuzzy approaches obtain very good results, outperforming all the methods described in previous studies except one. In this work, we also study the feature selection process of FIR methodology as a pre-processing tool to select the more relevant variables before the use of any predictive modelling methodology. It is proven that FIR feature selection provides interesting insights into the main building variables causally related to heating and cooling loads. This allows better decision making and design strategies, since accurate cooling and heating load estimations and correct identification of parameters that affect building energy demands are of high importance to optimize building designs and equipment specifications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

This paper, we studied the ability of geostatistical models (ordinary kriging (OK) and Inverse distance weighting (IDW)), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Winter method for prediction of seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions in Iran over the seasonal period 1986_2001. Results show that the best estimators in order are winter method, ANFIS and geostatistical methods. The results indicate that Winter and ANFIS had powerful results for prediction the prices while geostatistical models were not useful in this respect.Price; Geostatistical model; Kiriging; Inverse distance weighting; Winter’s method; Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system; Potatoes; Onions; Iran

Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

Price, Geostatistical model, Kiriging, Inverse distance weighting, Winter’s method, Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system, Potatoes, Onions, Iran, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis,

Blended intelligence of FCA with FLC for knowledge representation from clustered data in medical analysis

Formal concept analysis is the process of data analysis mechanism with emergent attractiveness across various fields such as data mining, robotics, medical, big data and so on. FCA is helpful to generate the new learning ontology based techniques. In medical field, some growing kids are facing the problem of representing their knowledge from their gathered prior data which is in the form of unordered and insufficient clustered data which is not supporting them to take the right decision on right time for solving the uncertainty based questionnaires. In the approach of decision theory, many mathematical replicas such as probability-allocation, crisp set, and fuzzy based set theory were designed to deals with knowledge representation based difficulties along with their characteristic. This paper is proposing new ideological blended approach of FCA with FLC and described with major objectives: primarily the FCA analyzes the data based on relationships between the set of objects of prior-attributes and the set of attributes based prior-data, which the data is framed with data-units implicated composition which are formal statements of idea of human thinking with conversion of significant intelligible explanation. Suitable rules are generated to explore the relationship among the attributes and used the formal concept analysis from these suitable rules to explore better knowledge and most important factors affecting the decision making. Secondly how the FLC derive the fuzzification, rule-construction and defuzzification methods implicated for representing the accurate knowledge for uncertainty based questionnaires. Here the FCA is projected to expand the FCA based conception with help of the objective based item set notions considered as the target which is implicated with the expanded cardinalities along with its weights which is associated through the fuzzy based inference decision rules. This approach is more helpful for medical experts for knowing the range of patient’s memory deficiency also for people whose are facing knowledge explorer deficiency

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version