Network Interdependency Modeling for Risk Assessment on Built Infrastructure Systems

As modern infrastructures become more interconnected, the decision-making process becomes more difficult because of the increased complexity resulting from infrastructure interdependencies. Simulation and network modeling provide a way to understand system behavior as a result of interdependencies. One area within the asset management literature that is not well covered is infrastructure system decay and risks associated with that decay. This research presents an enhanced version of Haimes\u27 input-output inoperability model (IIM) in the analysis of built infrastructure systems. Previous applications of the IIM characterized infrastructure at the national level utilizing large economic databases. This study develops a three-phased approach that takes component level data stored within geographic information systems (GIS) to provide a metric for network interdependency across a municipal level infrastructure. A multi-layered approach is proposed which leverages the layered data structure of GIS. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation using stochastic decay estimates shows how infrastructure risk as a result of interdependency effects changes over time. Such an analysis provides insight to infrastructure asset managers on the impact of policy and strategy decision-making regarding the maintenance and management of their infrastructure systems

Risk Assessment Methodology for Critical Infrastructure Protection

The European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection is the main vehicle for the protection of critical infrastructures in Europe. The Directive 2008/114/EC is the legislative instrument of this programme. Risk assessment is an important element that is mentioned throughout the Directive text. However, there is no harmonized methodology in Europe for the assessment of interconnected infrastructures. The present work describes such a methodology and its implementation for the assessment of critical infrastructures of European dimension. The methodology accounts for impact at asset level, evaluates the propagation of a failure at network level due to interdependencies and assess the economic impact of critical infrastructure disruption at national level.JRC.G.6-Security technology assessmen

Critical Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling: A Survey of U.S. and International Research

The Nation’s health, wealth, and security rely on the production and distribution of certain goods and services. The array of physical assets, processes, and organizations across which these goods and services move are called "critical infrastructures".1 This statement is as true in the U.S. as in any country in the world. Recent world events such as the 9-11 terrorist attacks, London bombings, and gulf coast hurricanes have highlighted the importance of stable electric, gas and oil, water, transportation, banking and finance, and control and communication infrastructure systems. Be it through direct connectivity, policies and procedures, or geospatial proximity, most critical infrastructure systems interact. These interactions often create complex relationships, dependencies, and interdependencies that cross infrastructure boundaries. The modeling and analysis of interdependencies between critical infrastructure elements is a relatively new and very important field of study. The U.S. Technical Support Working Group (TSWG) has sponsored this survey to identify and describe this current area of research including the current activities in this field being conducted both in the U.S. and internationally. The main objective of this study is to develop a single source reference of critical infrastructure interdependency modeling tools (CIIMT) that could be applied to allow users to objectively assess the capabilities of CIIMT. This information will provide guidance for directing research and development to address the gaps in development. The results will inform researchers of the TSWG Infrastructure Protection Subgroup of research and development efforts and allow a more focused approach to addressing the needs of CIIMT end-user needs. This report first presents the field of infrastructure interdependency analysis, describes the survey methodology, and presents the leading research efforts in both a cumulative table and through individual datasheets. Data was collected from open source material and when possible through direct contact with the individuals leading the research

A supply chain framework for characterizing indirect vulnerability

Purpose Climate vulnerability assessments are often operationalized by the analysis of indicators defined by the spatial boundaries of the community under study. These, however, sometimes fail to capture interdependency among communities for basic resources. This paper aims to propose a framework for characterizing vulnerability caused by interdependency by adapting a supply chain lens. Design/methodology/approach The paper proposes a definition for “indirect vulnerability” that recognizes the transboundary and teleconnected nature of vulnerability arising from resource networks among cities and communities. A conceptual framework using a supply chain approach is presented for climate hazards in particular. This approach is then demonstrated through a rapid appraisal of the rice, energy and water supply chains and the waste management chains of Metro Manila. Findings The application of the supply chain lens to assessing the indirect vulnerability of Metro Manila brings to fore issues extending beyond the decision-making boundaries of local government units. Addressing these will require vertical government coordination and horizontal inter-sectoral collaboration. Thus, this supply chain-based indirect vulnerability assessment can be complementary to traditional vulnerability assessments in providing a larger systems perspective. Originality/value Innovative tools are needed to make community vulnerability assessments both holistic and tractable. Existing methods in the private sector can be adapted rather than reinventing the wheel. This supply chain framework can be a useful decision support and planning tool across governance levels to comprehensively address vulnerability

Assessment of vulnerability to climate change: theoretical and methodological developments with applications to infrastructure and built environment

Assessing vulnerability to climate change can help policymakers in incorporating climate futures in planning and in better allocating adaptation resources. Indicator Based Vulnerability Assessment (IBVA) has been widely used because it is relatively simple to design, implement and communicate. However, this approach faces significant difficulties from conceptual, theoretical and methodological points of view. A number of assumptions are typically made in methods used for aggregation of indicators—a linear, monotonic relationship between indicator and vulnerability; complete compensation between indicators; precise knowledge of vulnerable systems by stakeholders who provide input data for the assessment exercise—none of which usually hold in reality. Following a meta-analysis of the IBVA literature, the thesis proposes a) a general mathematical framework for vulnerability assessment that better identifies sources of uncertainty and non-linearity; b) a new IBVA assessment methodology, and associated computer tool, based on a pair-wise outranking approach borrowed from decision science; the methodology can represent various sources of uncertainty, different degree of compensation between indicators and different types of non-linearity in the relationship between indicators and vulnerability and; c) a system dynamics model, integrated in the above framework, for studying vulnerability of infrastructure systems and better representing the mechanistic interdependency of their components. These methods are applied to a real-life assessment of the vulnerability to sea-level rise of communities and infrastructure systems in Shoalhaven, south of Sydney, at local scale. The assessment is conducted in collaboration with the Shoalhaven council and includes an analysis of the sensitivity of vulnerability rankings to community preferences. In addition, the effect of using an outranking framework on the way vulnerability is conceptualized by stakeholders is critically appraised

Assessment of vulnerability to climate change: theoretical and methodological developments with applications to infrastructure and built environment

Assessing vulnerability to climate change can help policymakers in incorporating climate futures in planning and in better allocating adaptation resources. Indicator Based Vulnerability Assessment (IBVA) has been widely used because it is relatively simple to design, implement and communicate. However, this approach faces significant difficulties from conceptual, theoretical and methodological points of view. A number of assumptions are typically made in methods used for aggregation of indicators—a linear, monotonic relationship between indicator and vulnerability; complete compensation between indicators; precise knowledge of vulnerable systems by stakeholders who provide input data for the assessment exercise—none of which usually hold in reality. Following a meta-analysis of the IBVA literature, the thesis proposes a) a general mathematical framework for vulnerability assessment that better identifies sources of uncertainty and non-linearity; b) a new IBVA assessment methodology, and associated computer tool, based on a pair-wise outranking approach borrowed from decision science; the methodology can represent various sources of uncertainty, different degree of compensation between indicators and different types of non-linearity in the relationship between indicators and vulnerability and; c) a system dynamics model, integrated in the above framework, for studying vulnerability of infrastructure systems and better representing the mechanistic interdependency of their components. These methods are applied to a real-life assessment of the vulnerability to sea-level rise of communities and infrastructure systems in Shoalhaven, south of Sydney, at local scale. The assessment is conducted in collaboration with the Shoalhaven council and includes an analysis of the sensitivity of vulnerability rankings to community preferences. In addition, the effect of using an outranking framework on the way vulnerability is conceptualized by stakeholders is critically appraised

Resilience Assessment of the Built Environment of a Virtual City

L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen

CRISALIDE: Searching for Smart Solutions in Urban Development beyond the Political Slogans: a Case of Rostov-on-Don, Southern Russia

Recently in Russia, a shift in a political discourse towards the innovative economy, new technologies and smart cities solutions is noticeable. There are several national programs and strategies that orient economic development to use innovations and digital technologies. However, those initiatives seem too focused on technological solutions and lack a comprehensive understanding of what smart development is. A missingcomponent might be provided from the bottom level through the use of the place-based approach and implementation of smart planning tools responding to the wicked local problems. The paper explores opportunities provided by the current national policy in the Russian Federation and the local conditions of the city of Rostov-on-Don in Southern Russia for the implementation of the innovative decision-making support tool in urban planning. The findings demonstrate that the introduction of the innovative decision-making support tool corresponds to the current transformation processes happening in a contemporary Russian city, requests from the national level and, consequently, it can be replicated in a similar context

相互依存性を有するクリティカルインフラストラクチャーの地震時性能と地震災害マネジメントに関する研究

京都大学0048新制・課程博士博士(工学)甲第17142号工博第3632号新制||工||1551(附属図書館)29881京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻(主査）教授 清野 純史, 教授 小池 武, 准教授 古川 愛子学位規則第4条第1項該当Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering)Kyoto UniversityDFA