Utilizing an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for overcrowding level risk assessment in railway stations

The railway network plays a significant role (both economically and socially) in assisting the reduction of urban traffic congestion. It also accelerates the decarbonization in cities, societies and built environments. To ensure the safe and secure operation of stations and capture the real-time risk status, it is imperative to consider a dynamic and smart method for managing risk factors in stations. In this research, a framework to develop an intelligent system for managing risk is suggested. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is proposed as a powerful, intelligently selected model to improve risk management and manage uncertainties in risk variables. The objective of this study is twofold. First, we review current methods applied to predict the risk level in the flow. Second, we develop smart risk assessment and management measures (or indicators) to improve our understanding of the safety of railway stations in real-time. Two parameters are selected as input for the risk level relating to overcrowding: the transfer efficiency and retention rate of the platform. This study is the world’s first to establish the hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) model, which has the potency to manage risk uncertainties and learns through artificial neural networks (ANNs) by integrated training processes. The prediction result shows very high accuracy in predicting the risk level performance, and proves the AI model capabilities to learn, to make predictions, and to capture risk level values in real time. Such risk information is extremely critical for decision making processes in managing safety and risks, especially when uncertain disruptions incur (e.g., COVID-19, disasters, etc.). The novel insights stemmed from this study will lead to more effective and efficient risk management for single and clustered railway station facilities towards safer, smarter, and more resilient transportation systems

An Overview on Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Optical Networks

Today's telecommunication networks have become sources of enormous amounts of widely heterogeneous data. This information can be retrieved from network traffic traces, network alarms, signal quality indicators, users' behavioral data, etc. Advanced mathematical tools are required to extract meaningful information from these data and take decisions pertaining to the proper functioning of the networks from the network-generated data. Among these mathematical tools, Machine Learning (ML) is regarded as one of the most promising methodological approaches to perform network-data analysis and enable automated network self-configuration and fault management. The adoption of ML techniques in the field of optical communication networks is motivated by the unprecedented growth of network complexity faced by optical networks in the last few years. Such complexity increase is due to the introduction of a huge number of adjustable and interdependent system parameters (e.g., routing configurations, modulation format, symbol rate, coding schemes, etc.) that are enabled by the usage of coherent transmission/reception technologies, advanced digital signal processing and compensation of nonlinear effects in optical fiber propagation. In this paper we provide an overview of the application of ML to optical communications and networking. We classify and survey relevant literature dealing with the topic, and we also provide an introductory tutorial on ML for researchers and practitioners interested in this field. Although a good number of research papers have recently appeared, the application of ML to optical networks is still in its infancy: to stimulate further work in this area, we conclude the paper proposing new possible research directions

Risk management prediction for overcrowding in railway stations utilising Adaptive Nero Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)

In this research, an intelligent system for managing risks is developed with a framework to aid in managing the risks in the railway stations. A method to advance risk management in the railway stations is needed in order to minimize risk through an automated process taking into consideration all the factors in the system and how they work together to provide an acceptable level of safety and security. Thus, the Adaptive Nero Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is proposed to improve risk management as an intelligently selected model which is powerful in dealing with uncertainties in risk variables. The methods of artificial neural network (ANN) and Fuzzy interface system (FIS) have been proven as tools for measuring risks in many fields. In this case study, the railway is selected as a place for managing the risks of overcrowding in the railway stations taking two parameters as input for risk value output using a hybrid model, which has the potency to deal with risk uncertainties and to learn by ANN training processes. The results show that the ANFIS method is more promising in the management of station risks. The framework can be applied for other risks in the station and more for a wide range of other systems. Also, ANFIS has the ability to learn from past risk records for future prediction. Clearly, the risk indexes are essential to reflect the actual condition of the station and they can indicate a high level of risks at the early stage, such as with overcrowding. The dynamic model of risk management can define risk levels and aid the decision makers by convenient and reliable results based on recorded data. Finally, the model can be generalised for other risks

Inundation resilience analysis of metro-network from a complex system perspective using the grid hydrodynamic model and FBWM approach : a case study of Wuhan

The upward trend of metro flooding disasters inevitably brings new challenges to urban underground flood management. It is essential to evaluate the resilience of metro systems so that efficient flood disaster plans for preparation, emergency response, and timely mitigation may be developed. Traditional response solutions merged multiple sources of data and knowledge to support decision-making. An obvious drawback is that original data sources for evaluations are often stationary, inaccurate, and subjective, owing to the complexity and uncertainty of the metro station’s actual physical environment. Meanwhile, the flood propagation path inside the whole metro station network was prone to be neglected. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to analyzing the resilience of metro networks to solve these problems. Firstly, we designed a simplified weighted and directed metro network module containing six characteristics by a topological approach while considering the slope direction between sites. Subsequently, to estimate the devastating effects and details of the flood hazard on the metro system, a 100-year rainfall–flood scenario simulation was conducted using high-precision DEM and a grid hydrodynamic model to identify the initially above-ground inundated stations (nodes). We developed a dynamic node breakdown algorithm to calculate the inundation sequence of the nodes in the weighted and directed network of the metro. Finally, we analyzed the resilience of the metro network in terms of toughness strength and organization recovery capacity, respectively. The fuzzy best–worst method (FBWM) was developed to obtain the weight of each assessment metric and determine the toughness strength of each node and the entire network. The results were as follows. (1) A simplified three-dimensional metro network based on a complex system perspective was established through a topological approach to explore the resilience of urban subways. (2) A grid hydrodynamic model was developed to accurately and efficiently identify the initially flooded nodes, and a dynamic breakdown algorithm realistically performed the flooding process of the subway network. (3) The node toughness strength was obtained automatically by a nonlinear FBWM method under the constraint of the minimum error to sustain the resilience assessment of the metro network. The research has considerable implications for managing underground flooding and enhancing the resilience of the metro network

DEVELOPMENT OF SPATIOTEMPORAL CONGESTION PATTERN OBSERVATION MODEL USING HISTORICAL AND NEAR REAL TIME DATA

Traffic congestion is not foreign to major metropolitan areas. Congestion in large cities often is associated with dense land developments and continued economic growth. In general, congestion can be classified into two categories: recurring and nonrecurring. Recurring congestion often occurs at certain parts of highway networks, referred to as bottleneck locations. Nonrecurring congestion, on the other hand, can be caused by different reasons, including work zones, special events, accidents, inclement weather, poor signal timing, etc. The work presented here demonstrates an approach to effectively identifying spatiotemporal patterns of traffic congestion at a network level. The Metro Atlanta highway network was used as a case study. Real time traffic data was acquired from the Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT) Navigator system. For a qualitative analysis, speed data was categorized into three levels: low, median, and high. Cluster analysis was performed with respect to the categorized speed data in the spatiotemporal domain to identify where and when congestion has occurred and for how long, which indicate the severity of congestion. This qualitative analysis was performed by day of week to identify potential variation in congestion over weekdays and weekend. For a quantitative analysis, actual speed data was used to construct daily spatiotemporal maps to reveal congestion patterns at a more granular level, where congestion is represented as “cloud” in the spatiotemporal domain. Future work will be focusing on deep learning of congestion patterns using Convolutional Long Short Term Memory (ConvLSTM) networks

Applied deep learning in intelligent transportation systems and embedding exploration

Deep learning techniques have achieved tremendous success in many real applications in recent years and show their great potential in many areas including transportation. Even though transportation becomes increasingly indispensable in people’s daily life, its related problems, such as traffic congestion and energy waste, have not been completely solved, yet some problems have become even more critical. This dissertation focuses on solving the following fundamental problems: (1) passenger demand prediction, (2) transportation mode detection, (3) traffic light control, in the transportation field using deep learning. The dissertation also extends the application of deep learning to an embedding system for visualization and data retrieval. The first part of this dissertation is about a Spatio-TEmporal Fuzzy neural Network (STEF-Net) which accurately predicts passenger demand by incorporating the complex interaction of all known important factors, such as temporal, spatial and external information. Specifically, a convolutional long short-term memory network is employed to simultaneously capture spatio-temporal feature interaction, and a fuzzy neural network to model external factors. A novel feature fusion method with convolution and an attention layer is proposed to keep the temporal relation and discriminative spatio-temporal feature interaction. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches. The second part is a light-weight and energy-efficient system which detects transportation modes using only accelerometer sensors in smartphones. Understanding people’s transportation modes is beneficial to many civilian applications, such as urban transportation planning. The system collects accelerometer data in an efficient way and leverages a convolutional neural network to determine transportation modes. Different architectures and classification methods are tested with the proposed convolutional neural network to optimize the system design. Performance evaluation shows that the proposed approach achieves better accuracy than existing work in detecting people’s transportation modes. The third component of this dissertation is a deep reinforcement learning model, based on Q learning, to control the traffic light. Existing inefficient traffic light control causes numerous problems, such as long delay and waste of energy. In the proposed model, the complex traffic scenario is quantified as states by collecting data and dividing the whole intersection into grids. The timing changes of a traffic light are the actions, which are modeled as a high-dimension Markov decision process. The reward is the cumulative waiting time difference between two cycles. To solve the model, a convolutional neural network is employed to map states to rewards, which is further optimized by several components, such as dueling network, target network, double Q-learning network, and prioritized experience replay. The simulation results in Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) show the efficiency of the proposed model in controlling traffic lights. The last part of this dissertation studies the hierarchical structure in an embedding system. Traditional embedding approaches associate a real-valued embedding vector with each symbol or data point, which generates storage-inefficient representation and fails to effectively encode the internal semantic structure of data. A regularized autoencoder framework is proposed to learn compact Hierarchical K-way D-dimensional (HKD) discrete embedding of data points, aiming at capturing semantic structures of data. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed HKD embedding can effectively reveal the semantic structure of data via visualization and greatly reduce the search space of nearest neighbor retrieval while preserving high accuracy