Large Scale Analysis of Offensive Performance in Football - Using Synchronized Positional and Event Data to Quantify Offensive Actions, Tactics, and Strategies

Offensive performances in football have always been of great focus for fans and clubs alike as evidenced by the fact that nearly all Ballon d’Or winners have been forwards or midfielders. With the increase in availability of granular data, evaluating these performances on a deeper level than just goals scored or gut instinct has become possible. The domain of sports analytics has recently emerged, exploring how applying data science techniques or other statistical methods to sports data can improve decision making within sporting organizations. This thesis follows the footsteps of other sports like baseball or basketball where, at first, offensive performances were analyzed. It consists of four studies exploring various levels of offensive performance, ranging from basic actions to team-level strategy. For that, it uses a dataset part of larger research program that also explores the automatic detection of tactical patterns. This dataset mainly consists of positional and event data from eight seasons of the German Bundesliga and German Bundesliga 2 between the seasons 2013/2014 and 2020/2021. In total this amounts to 4, 896 matches, with highly accurate player and ball positions for every moment of the match and detailed logs of every action that occurred, thus making it one of the largest football datasets to be analyzed at this level of granularity. In a first step, this thesis shows how the two different data sources can be synchronized. With this synchronized data it is possible to better quantify individual basic actions like shots or passes. For both actions new metrics (Expected Goals and Expected Passes) were developed, that use the contextual information to quantify the chance quality and passing difficulty. Using this improved quantification of individual actions, the subsequent studies evaluate offensive performance on a tactical pattern level (how goals are scored) and on a strategy level (what team formations are particular effective offensively). Besides their usage on the performance side, these metrics have also been adapted from broadcasters to enhance their data story telling: Expected goals and expected passes are shown during every Bundesliga match to a worldwide audience, thus bringing the field of sports analytics to millions of fans

Automated Detection of Complex Tactical Patterns in Football—Using Machine Learning Techniques to Identify Tactical Behavior

Football tactics is a topic of public interest, where decisions are predominantly made based on gut instincts from domain-experts. Sport science literature often highlights the need for evidence-based research on football tactics, however the limited capabilities in modeling the dynamics of football has prevented researchers from gaining usable insights. Recent technological advances have made high quality football data more available and affordable. Particularly, positional data providing player and ball coordinates at every instance of a match can be combined with event data containing spatio-temporal information on any event taking place on the pitch (e.g. passes, shots, fouls). On the other hand, the application of machine learning methods to domain-specific problems yields a paradigm shift in many industries including sports. The need for more informed decisions as well as automating time consuming processes—accelerated by the availability of data—has motivated many scientific investigations in football analytics. This thesis is part of a research program combining methodologies from sports and data science to address the following problems: the synchronization of positional and event data, objectively quantifying offensive actions, as well as the detection of tactical patterns. Although various basic insights from the overall research program are integrated, this thesis focuses primarily on the latter one. Specifically, positional and event data are used to apply machine learning techniques to identify eight established tactical patterns in football: namely high-/mid-/low-block defending, build-up/attacking play in the offense, counterpressing and counterattacks during transitions, and patterns when defending corner-kicks, e.g. player-/zonal- or post-marking. For each pattern, we consolidate definitions with football experts and label large amounts of data manually using video recordings. The inter-labeler reliability is used to ensure that each pattern is well-defined. Unsupervised techniques are used for the purpose of exploration, and supervised machine learning methods based on expert-labeled data for the final detection. As an outlook, semi-supervised methods were used to reduce the labeling effort. This thesis proves that the detection of tactical patterns can optimize everyday processes in professional clubs, and leverage the domain of tactical analysis in sport science by gaining unseen insights. Additionally, we add value to the machine learning domain by evaluating recent methods in supervised and semi supervised machine learning on challenging, real-world problems

Comparative Analysis of Student Learning: Technical, Methodological and Result Assessing of PISA-OECD and INVALSI-Italian Systems .

PISA is the most extensive international survey promoted by the OECD in the field of education, which measures the skills of fifteen-year-old students from more than 80 participating countries every three years. INVALSI are written tests carried out every year by all Italian students in some key moments of the school cycle, to evaluate the levels of some fundamental skills in Italian, Mathematics and English. Our comparison is made up to 2018, the last year of the PISA-OECD survey, even if INVALSI was carried out for the last edition in 2022. Our analysis focuses attention on the common part of the reference populations, which are the 15-year-old students of the 2nd class of secondary schools of II degree, where both sources give a similar picture of the students

Big Earth Data and Machine Learning for Sustainable and Resilient Agriculture

Big streams of Earth images from satellites or other platforms (e.g., drones and mobile phones) are becoming increasingly available at low or no cost and with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution. This thesis recognizes the unprecedented opportunities offered by the high quality and open access Earth observation data of our times and introduces novel machine learning and big data methods to properly exploit them towards developing applications for sustainable and resilient agriculture. The thesis addresses three distinct thematic areas, i.e., the monitoring of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the monitoring of food security and applications for smart and resilient agriculture. The methodological innovations of the developments related to the three thematic areas address the following issues: i) the processing of big Earth Observation (EO) data, ii) the scarcity of annotated data for machine learning model training and iii) the gap between machine learning outputs and actionable advice. This thesis demonstrated how big data technologies such as data cubes, distributed learning, linked open data and semantic enrichment can be used to exploit the data deluge and extract knowledge to address real user needs. Furthermore, this thesis argues for the importance of semi-supervised and unsupervised machine learning models that circumvent the ever-present challenge of scarce annotations and thus allow for model generalization in space and time. Specifically, it is shown how merely few ground truth data are needed to generate high quality crop type maps and crop phenology estimations. Finally, this thesis argues there is considerable distance in value between model inferences and decision making in real-world scenarios and thereby showcases the power of causal and interpretable machine learning in bridging this gap.Comment: Phd thesi

Proceedings of Mathsport international 2017 conference

Proceedings of MathSport International 2017 Conference, held in the Botanical Garden of the University of Padua, June 26-28, 2017. MathSport International organizes biennial conferences dedicated to all topics where mathematics and sport meet. Topics include: performance measures, optimization of sports performance, statistics and probability models, mathematical and physical models in sports, competitive strategies, statistics and probability match outcome models, optimal tournament design and scheduling, decision support systems, analysis of rules and adjudication, econometrics in sport, analysis of sporting technologies, financial valuation in sport, e-sports (gaming), betting and sports

Mimicking human player strategies in fighting games using game artificial intelligence techniques

Fighting videogames (also known as fighting games) are ever growing in popularity and accessibility. The isolated console experiences of 20th century gaming has been replaced by online gaming services that allow gamers to play from almost anywhere in the world with one another. This gives rise to competitive gaming on a global scale enabling them to experience fresh play styles and challenges by playing someone new. Fighting games can typically be played either as a single player experience, or against another human player, whether it is via a network or a traditional multiplayer experience. However, there are two issues with these approaches. First, the single player offering in many fighting games is regarded as being simplistic in design, making the moves by the computer predictable. Secondly, while playing against other human players can be more varied and challenging, this may not always be achievable due to the logistics involved in setting up such a bout. Game Artificial Intelligence could provide a solution to both of these issues, allowing a human player s strategy to be learned and then mimicked by the AI fighter. In this thesis, game AI techniques have been researched to provide a means of mimicking human player strategies in strategic fighting games with multiple parameters. Various techniques and their current usages are surveyed, informing the design of two separate solutions to this problem. The first solution relies solely on leveraging k nearest neighbour classification to identify which move should be executed based on the in-game parameters, resulting in decisions being made at the operational level and being fed from the bottom-up to the strategic level. The second solution utilises a number of existing Artificial Intelligence techniques, including data driven finite state machines, hierarchical clustering and k nearest neighbour classification, in an architecture that makes decisions at the strategic level and feeds them from the top-down to the operational level, resulting in the execution of moves. This design is underpinned by a novel algorithm to aid the mimicking process, which is used to identify patterns and strategies within data collated during bouts between two human players. Both solutions are evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively. A conclusion summarising the findings, as well as future work, is provided. The conclusions highlight the fact that both solutions are proficient in mimicking human strategies, but each has its own strengths depending on the type of strategy played out by the human. More structured, methodical strategies are better mimicked by the data driven finite state machine hybrid architecture, whereas the k nearest neighbour approach is better suited to tactical approaches, or even random button bashing that does not always conform to a pre-defined strategy

Tracking the Temporal-Evolution of Supernova Bubbles in Numerical Simulations

The study of low-dimensional, noisy manifolds embedded in a higher dimensional space has been extremely useful in many applications, from the chemical analysis of multi-phase flows to simulations of galactic mergers. Building a probabilistic model of the manifolds has helped in describing their essential properties and how they vary in space. However, when the manifold is evolving through time, a joint spatio-temporal modelling is needed, in order to fully comprehend its nature. We propose a first-order Markovian process that propagates the spatial probabilistic model of a manifold at fixed time, to its adjacent temporal stages. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a particle simulation of an interacting dwarf galaxy to describe the evolution of a cavity generated by a Supernov

Sustainable control of infestations using image processing and modelling

A sustainable pest control system integrates automated pest detection and recognition to evaluate the pest density using image samples taken from habitats. Novel predator/prey modelling algorithms assess control requirements for the UAV system, which is designed to deliver measured quantities of naturally beneficial predators to combat pest infestations within economically acceptable timeframes. The integrated system will reduce the damaging effect of pests in an infested habitat to an economically acceptable level without the use of chemical pesticides. Plant pest recognition and detection is vital for food security, quality of life and a stable agricultural economy. The research utilises a combination of the k-means clustering algorithm and the correspondence filter to achieve pest detection and recognition. The detection is achieved by partitioning the data space into Voronoi cells, which tends to find clusters of comparable spatial extents, thereby separating the objects (pests) from the background (pest habitat). The detection is established by extracting the variant and distinctive attributes between the pest and its habitat (leaf, stem) and using the correspondence filter to identify the plant pests to obtain correlation peak values for the different datasets. The correspondence filter can achieve rotationally invariant recognition of pests for a full 360 degrees, which proves the effectiveness of the algorithm and provides a count of the number of pests in the image. A series of models has been produced that will permit an assessment of common pest infestation problems and estimate the number of predators that are required to control the problem within a time schedule. A UAV predator deployment system has been designed. The system is offered as a replacement for chemical pesticides to improve peoples’ health opportunities and the quality of food products