The extension and exploitation of the inventory and order based production control system archetype from 1982 to 2015

In 1994, through classic control theory, John, Naim and Towill developed the ‘Automatic Pipeline, Inventory and Order-based Production Control System’ (APIOBPCS) which extended the original IOBPCS archetype developed by Towill in 1982 ─ well-recognised as a base framework for a production planning and control system. Due to the prevalence of the two original models in the last three decades in the academic and industrial communities, this paper aims to systematically review how the IOBPCS archetypes have been adopted, exploited and adapted to study the dynamics of individual production planning and control systems and whole supply chains. Using various databases such as Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar (111 papers), we found that the IOBPCS archetypes have been studied regarding the a) modification of four inherent policies related to forecasting, inventory, lead-time and pipeline to create a ‘family’ of models, b) adoption of the IOBPCS ‘family’ to reduce supply chain dynamics, and in particular bullwhip, c) extension of the IOBPCS family to represent different supply chain scenarios such as order-book based production control and closed-loop processes. Simulation is the most popular method adopted by researchers and the number of works based on discrete time based methods is greater than those utilising continuous time approaches. Most studies are conceptual with limited practical applications described. Future research needs to focus on cost, flexibility and sustainability in the context of supply chain dynamics and, although there are a few existing studies, more analytical approaches are required to gain robust insights into the influence of nonlinear elements on supply chain behaviour. Also, empirical exploitation of the existing models is recommended

A rolling horizon simulation approach for managing demand with lead time variability

[EN] This paper proposes a rolling horizon (RH) approach to deal with management problems under dynamic demand in planning horizons with variable lead times using system dynamics (SD) simulation. Thus, the nature of dynamic RH solutions entails no inconveniences to contemplate planning horizons with unpredictable demands. This is mainly because information is periodically updated and replanning is done in time. Therefore, inventory and logistic costs may be lower. For the first time, an RH is applied for demand management with variable lead times along with SD simulation models, which allowed the use of lot-sizing techniques to be evaluated (Wagner-Whitin and Silver-Meal). The basic scenario is based on a real-world example from an automotive single-level SC composed of a first-tier supplier and a car assembler that contemplates uncertain demands while planning the RH and 216 subscenarios by modifying constant and variable lead times, holding costs and order costs, combined with lot-sizing techniques. Twenty-eight more replications comprising 504 new subscenarios with variable lead times are generated to represent a relative variation coefficient of the initial demand. We conclude that our RH simulation approach, along with lot-sizing techniques, can generate more sustainable planning results in total costs, fill rates and bullwhip effect terms.This work was supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 project Diverfarming [grant number 728003].Campuzano Bolarin, F.; Mula, J.; Díaz-Madroñero Boluda, FM.; Legaz-Aparicio, Á. (2020). A rolling horizon simulation approach for managing demand with lead time variability. International Journal of Production Research. 58(12):3800-3820. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2019.1634849S380038205812Agaran, B., W. W. Buchanan, and M. K. Yurtseven. 2007. “Regulating Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains through Modern Control Theory.” in PICMET ‘07 – 2007 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology, 2391–2398. IEEE. http://doi.org/10.1109/PICMET.2007.4349573.Baker, K. R. (1977). AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ROLLING SCHEDULES IN PRODUCTION PLANNING. Decision Sciences, 8(1), 19-27. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1977.tb01065.xBhattacharya, R., & Bandyopadhyay, S. (2010). A review of the causes of bullwhip effect in a supply chain. The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 54(9-12), 1245-1261. doi:10.1007/s00170-010-2987-6Boulaksil, Y., Fransoo, J. C., & van Halm, E. N. G. (2007). Setting safety stocks in multi-stage inventory systems under rolling horizon mathematical programming models. OR Spectrum, 31(1). doi:10.1007/s00291-007-0086-3Brown, M. E., & Kshirsagar, V. (2015). Weather and international price shocks on food prices in the developing world. Global Environmental Change, 35, 31-40. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.003Campuzano, F., Mula, J., & Peidro, D. (2010). Fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 161(11), 1530-1542. doi:10.1016/j.fss.2009.12.002Campuzano-Bolarín, F., Mula, J., & Peidro, D. (2013). An extension to fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains. International Journal of Production Research, 51(10), 3156-3166. doi:10.1080/00207543.2012.760854De Sampaio, R. J. B., Wollmann, R. R. G., & Vieira, P. F. G. (2017). A flexible production planning for rolling-horizons. International Journal of Production Economics, 190, 31-36. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2017.01.003Díaz-Madroñero, M., Mula, J., & Jiménez, M. (2014). Fuzzy goal programming for material requirements planning under uncertainty and integrity conditions. International Journal of Production Research, 52(23), 6971-6988. doi:10.1080/00207543.2014.920115Díaz-Madroñero, M., Mula, J., & Peidro, D. (2017). A mathematical programming model for integrating production and procurement transport decisions. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 52, 527-543. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2017.08.009Disney, S. M., Naim, M. M., & Potter, A. (2004). Assessing the impact of e-business on supply chain dynamics. International Journal of Production Economics, 89(2), 109-118. doi:10.1016/s0925-5273(02)00464-4Dominguez, R., Cannella, S., & Framinan, J. M. (2015). The impact of the supply chain structure on bullwhip effect. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 39(23-24), 7309-7325. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2015.03.012Fransoo, J. C., & Wouters, M. J. F. (2000). Measuring the bullwhip effect in the supply chain. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 5(2), 78-89. doi:10.1108/13598540010319993Geary, S., Disney, S. M., & Towill, D. R. (2006). On bullwhip in supply chains—historical review, present practice and expected future impact. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 2-18. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2005.05.009Giard, V., & Sali, M. (2013). The bullwhip effect in supply chains: a study of contingent and incomplete literature. International Journal of Production Research, 51(13), 3880-3893. doi:10.1080/00207543.2012.754552Hosoda, T., & Disney, S. M. (2018). A unified theory of the dynamics of closed-loop supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research, 269(1), 313-326. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2017.07.020Hussain, M., & Drake, P. R. (2011). Analysis of the bullwhip effect with order batching in multi‐echelon supply chains. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 41(10), 972-990. doi:10.1108/09600031111185248Jakšič, M., & Rusjan, B. (2008). The effect of replenishment policies on the bullwhip effect: A transfer function approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 184(3), 946-961. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2006.12.018Karimi, B., Fatemi Ghomi, S. M. T., & Wilson, J. M. (2003). The capacitated lot sizing problem: a review of models and algorithms. Omega, 31(5), 365-378. doi:10.1016/s0305-0483(03)00059-8Li, J., Ghadge, A., & Tiwari, M. K. (2016). Impact of replenishment strategies on supply chain performance under e-shopping scenario. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 102, 78-87. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2016.10.005Lian, Z., Liu, L., & Zhu, S. X. (2010). Rolling-horizon replenishment: Policies and performance analysis. Naval Research Logistics (NRL), 57(6), 489-502. doi:10.1002/nav.20416D. Mendoza, J., Mula, J., & Campuzano-Bolarin, F. (2014). Using systems dynamics to evaluate the tradeoff among supply chain aggregate production planning policies. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 34(8), 1055-1079. doi:10.1108/ijopm-06-2012-0238Moreno, J. R., Mula, J., & Campuzano-Bolarin, F. (2015). Increasing the Equity of a Flower Supply Chain by Improving Order Management and Supplier Selection. International Journal of Simulation Modelling, 14(2), 201-214. doi:10.2507/ijsimm14(2)2.284Mula, J., Peidro, D., & Poler, R. (2010). The effectiveness of a fuzzy mathematical programming approach for supply chain production planning with fuzzy demand. International Journal of Production Economics, 128(1), 136-143. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.06.007Mula, J., Poler, R., & Garcia, J. P. (2006). MRP with flexible constraints: A fuzzy mathematical programming approach. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 157(1), 74-97. doi:10.1016/j.fss.2005.05.045Mula, J., Poler, R., & Garcia-Sabater, J. P. (2007). Material Requirement Planning with fuzzy constraints and fuzzy coefficients. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 158(7), 783-793. doi:10.1016/j.fss.2006.11.003Mula, J., Poler, R., & Garcia-Sabater, J. P. (2008). Capacity and material requirement planning modelling by comparing deterministic and fuzzy models. International Journal of Production Research, 46(20), 5589-5606. doi:10.1080/00207540701413912Ostberg, S., Schewe, J., Childers, K., & Frieler, K. (2018). Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming. Earth System Dynamics, 9(2), 479-496. doi:10.5194/esd-9-479-2018Pacheco, E. de O., Cannella, S., Lüders, R., & Barbosa-Povoa, A. P. (2017). Order-up-to-level policy update procedure for a supply chain subject to market demand uncertainty. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 113, 347-355. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2017.09.015Nyoman Pujawan, I. (2004). The effect of lot sizing rules on order variability. European Journal of Operational Research, 159(3), 617-635. doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(03)00419-3Rafiei, R., Nourelfath, M., Gaudreault, J., Santa-Eulalia, L. A., & Bouchard, M. (2013). A periodic re-planning approach for demand-driven wood remanufacturing industry: a real-scale application. International Journal of Production Research, 52(14), 4198-4215. doi:10.1080/00207543.2013.869631Sahin, F., Narayanan, A., & Robinson, E. P. (2013). Rolling horizon planning in supply chains: review, implications and directions for future research. International Journal of Production Research, 51(18), 5413-5436. doi:10.1080/00207543.2013.775523Sahin, F., & Robinson, E. P. (2002). Flow Coordination and Information Sharing in Supply Chains: Review, Implications, and Directions for Future Research. Decision Sciences, 33(4), 505-536. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5915.2002.tb01654.xSahin, F., & Robinson, E. P. (2004). Information sharing and coordination in make-to-order supply chains. Journal of Operations Management, 23(6), 579-598. doi:10.1016/j.jom.2004.08.007Schmidt, M., Münzberg, B., & Nyhuis, P. (2015). Determining Lot Sizes in Production Areas – Exact Calculations versus Research Based Estimation. Procedia CIRP, 28, 143-148. doi:10.1016/j.procir.2015.04.024Simpson, N. . (1999). Multiple level production planning in rolling horizon assembly environments. European Journal of Operational Research, 114(1), 15-28. doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(98)00005-8Sridharan, S. V., Berry, W. L., & Udayabhanu, V. (1988). MEASURING MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULE STABILITY UNDER ROLLING PLANNING HORIZONS. Decision Sciences, 19(1), 147-166. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1988.tb00259.xTaylor, D. H., & Fearne, A. (2006). Towards a framework for improvement in the management of demand in agri‐food supply chains. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 11(5), 379-384. doi:10.1108/13598540610682381Van den Heuvel, W., & Wagelmans, A. P. M. (2005). A comparison of methods for lot-sizing in a rolling horizon environment. Operations Research Letters, 33(5), 486-496. doi:10.1016/j.orl.2004.10.001Vargas, V., & Metters, R. (2011). A master production scheduling procedure for stochastic demand and rolling planning horizons. International Journal of Production Economics, 132(2), 296-302. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2011.04.025Wagner, H. M., & Whitin, T. M. (1958). Dynamic Version of the Economic Lot Size Model. Management Science, 5(1), 89-96. doi:10.1287/mnsc.5.1.89WEMMERLÖV, U., & WHYBARK, D. C. (1984). Lot-sizing under uncertainty in a rolling schedule environment. International Journal of Production Research, 22(3), 467-484. doi:10.1080/00207548408942467Zhang, C., & Qu, X. (2015). The effect of global oil price shocks on China’s agricultural commodities. Energy Economics, 51, 354-364. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.07.01

Supply Chain

Traditionally supply chain management has meant factories, assembly lines, warehouses, transportation vehicles, and time sheets. Modern supply chain management is a highly complex, multidimensional problem set with virtually endless number of variables for optimization. An Internet enabled supply chain may have just-in-time delivery, precise inventory visibility, and up-to-the-minute distribution-tracking capabilities. Technology advances have enabled supply chains to become strategic weapons that can help avoid disasters, lower costs, and make money. From internal enterprise processes to external business transactions with suppliers, transporters, channels and end-users marks the wide range of challenges researchers have to handle. The aim of this book is at revealing and illustrating this diversity in terms of scientific and theoretical fundamentals, prevailing concepts as well as current practical applications

Green supply chain quantitative models for sustainable inventory management: A review

[EN] This paper provides a systematic and up-to-date review and classification of 91 studies on quantitative methods of green supply chains for sustainable inventory management. It particularly identifies the main study areas, findings and quantitative models by setting a point for future research opportunities in sustainable inventory management. It seeks to review the quantitative methods that can better contribute to deal with the environmental impact challenge. More specifically, it focuses on different supply chain designs (green supply chain, sustainable supply chain, reverse logistics, closed-loop supply chain) in a broader application context. It also identifies the most important variables and parameters in inventory modelling from a sustainable perspective. The paper also includes a comparative analysis of the different mathematical programming, simulation and statistical models, and their solution approach, with exact methods, simulation, heuristic or meta-heuristic solution algorithms, the last of which indicate the increasing attention paid by researchers in recent years. The main findings recognise mixed integer linear programming models supported by heuristic and metaheuristic algorithms as the most widely used modelling approach. Minimisation of costs and greenhouse gas emissions are the main objectives of the reviewed approaches, while social aspects are hardly addressed. The main contemplated inventory management parameters are holding costs, quantity to order, safety stock and backorders. Demand is the most frequently shared information. Finally, tactical decisions, as opposed to strategical and operational decisions, are the main ones.The research leading to these results received funding from the Grant RTI2018-101344-B-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by "ERDF A way of making Europe". It was also funded by the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) / Scholarship Program/Doctorado Becas en el Extranjero/2020 72210174.Becerra, P.; Mula, J.; Sanchis, R. (2021). Green supply chain quantitative models for sustainable inventory management: A review. Journal of Cleaner Production. 328:1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129544S11632

How big data characteristics can help the manufacturing industry mitigate the bullwhip effect in their supply chain

For years, practitioners and academics have significantly studied the impact, causes, and remedies of the bullwhip effect in the supply chain. Numerous approaches have been developed throughout the years to help minimise demand amplification; these include order batching, the bear game, and demand forecasting. The bullwhip effect phenomenon is caused by numerous disruptions in the supply chain network, such as natural disasters, shortages, overproduction, overstocking of inventory, pandemics such as COVID-19, and political issues, for example, Brexit. This study examines the potential for big data to enhance supply chain procedures and decision-making to alleviate demand amplification. In addition, the study investigates how big data characteristics might be utilised in the manufacturing sector to reduce the situation. Numerous academic publications on big data and data analytics were evaluated critically to comprehend how big data has been utilised in the supply chain to mitigate the bullwhip impact.The researcher has developed a Simulink model to examine the supply-chain system dynamics. The first model is generic and does not incorporate any big data properties; however, the other three models incorporate big data attributes, mathematical formulas, and other factors that can be modified during model execution. The model was repeatedly simulated with random or demand data. Simultaneously, results were collected and plotted on an Excel spreadsheet and other tools to generate factual data in graphs and numbers. Meaningful results or a quantitative research approach were employed to carry out the research, while a Simulink model was used as a primary research tool. Additionally, a model was employed to generate numerical data for analysis and to achieve study objectives. The outputs of each model were analysed since they all produce different results due to their varied incorporation of features. These results assist in identifying the most beneficial aspects of big data that have the potential to minimise the bullwhip effect

A Decision Tool for Supplier Selection That Takes into Account Power and Performance

Companies select their suppliers to provide required performance while being successful partners. An important aspect of collaboration is the power relationship between the company and its suppliers. Although the significance of power in supplier selection is acknowledged, published work rarely includes assessment of power. An empirical study on selecting suppliers for new product developments in a major European diesel engine manufacturing company, supported by three smaller studies with electronic engineering companies, frames overall questions regarding the importance of incorporating power into supplier selection and how this might be achieved. This research proposes an approach that assesses both performance and power and integrates the assessment results by modelling the relative effects of power and performance. It positions the suppliers into six scenarios (ideal, satisfying, tolerable, unfavourable, risky and tough) which depict to what extent a supplier is ‘suitable’ to work with. A reverse analysis reviews the relationship when several suppliers appear suitable. An assessment method is developed incorporating both subjective and objective data for qualitative and quantitative criteria. It combines two decision making methods, AHP and TOPSIS, with triangular fuzzy numbers. Multiple judgements from several decision makers are synthesised. This method is adapted for performance assessment of single, group and cross-group suppliers. Weights are calculated for the criteria, and combined with calculations of supplier performance against each criterion to provide an overall assessment and supplier profile. Power is quantified against a set of power determinants and power relations (supplier dominance, buyer dominance and balanced) are determined. The effects of supplier perceptions (objective, optimistic and pessimistic) are estimated in the calculation. The proposed approach involves complex calculations and a prototype software tool is developed with graphical interfaces. The tool includes performance criteria and power determinants collected from literature and allows users to define new ones. Application to an agriculture case enables the sustainable performance of suppliers (farmers) to be evaluated and compared

A multivariate approach for multi-step demand forecasting in assembly industries: Empirical evidence from an automotive supply chain

PreprintDemand forecasting works as a basis for operating, business and production planning decisions in many supply chain contexts. Yet, how to accurately predict the manufacturer's demand for components in the presence of end-customer demand uncertainty remains poorly understood. Assigning the proper order quantities of components to suppliers thus becomes a nontrivial task, with a significant impact on planning, capacity and inventory-related costs. This paper introduces a multivariate approach to predict manufacturer's demand for components throughout multiple forecast horizons using different leading indicators of demand shifts. We compare the autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX) with Machine Learning (ML) models. Using a real case study, we empirically evaluate the forecasting and supply chain performance of the multivariate regression models over the component's life-cycle. The experiments show that the proposed multivariate approach provides superior forecasting and inventory performance compared with traditional univariate benchmarks. Moreover, it reveals applicable throughout the component's life-cycle, not just to a single stage. Particularly, we found that demand signals at the beginning of the life-cycle are predicted better by the ARIMAX model, but it is outperformed by ML-based models in later life-cycle stages.INCT-EN - Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Excitotoxicidade e Neuroproteção(UIDB/00319/2020

Exploratory research into supply chain voids within Welsh priority business sectors

The paper reports the findings resulting from the initial stages of an exploratory investigation into Supply Chain Voids (SCV) in Wales. The research forms the foundations of a PhD thesis which is framed within the sectors designated as important by the Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) and indicates local supplier capability voids within their supply chains. This paper covers the stages of initial data gathering, analysis and results identified between June 2006 and April 2007, whilst addressing the first of four research questions. Finally, the approach to address future research is identified in order to explain how the PhD is to progress

A knowledge base system for overall supply chain performance evaluation : a multi-criteria decision-making approach

Due to the advancement of technology that allows organizations to collect, store, organize and use data information system for efficient decision making (DM), a new horizon of supply chain performance evaluation starts. Today, DM is shifting from “information-driven” to “data-driven” for more precision in overall supply chain performance evaluation. Based on the real-time information, fast decisions are important in order to deliver product more rapidly. Performance evaluation is critical to the success of the supply chain (SC). In managing SC, there are many decisions to be taken at each level of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) (short-term or long-term) because of many decisions and decision criteria (attributes) that have an impact on overall supply chain performance. Therefore it is essential for decision makers to know the relationship between decisions and decision criteria on overall SC performance. However, existing supply chain performance models (SCPM) are not adequate in establishing a link between decisions and decisions criteria on overall SC performance. Most of the decisions and decision attributes in SC are conflicting in nature and performance measure of different criteria (attributes) at different levels of decisions (long-term and short-term) is different and makes it more intricate for SC performance evaluation. SC performance heavily depends on how well you design your SC. In other words, it is quite difficult to improve overall SC performance if decisions criteria (attributes) are not embedded or considered at the phase of SC design. The connection between the SC design and supply chain management (SCM) is essential for effective SC. Many companies such as Wal-Mart, Dell, etc. are successful companies and they achieve their success because of their effective SC design and management of SC activities. The purpose of this thesis is in two folds: First is to develop an integrated knowledge base system (KBS) based on Fuzzy-AHP that establish a relationship between decisions and decisions criteria (attributes) and evaluate overall SC performance. The proposed KBS assists organizations and decision-makers in evaluating their overall SC performance and helps in identifying under-performed SC function and its associated criteria. In the end, the proposed system has been implemented in a case company, and we developed a SC performance monitoring dashboard of a case company for top managers and operational managers. Second to develop decisions models that will help us in calibrating decisions and improving overall SC performance