Review of Nature-Inspired Forecast Combination Techniques

Effective and efficient planning in various areas can be significantly supported by forecasting a variable like an economy growth rate or product demand numbers for a future point in time. More than one forecast for the same variable is often available, leading to the question whether one should choose one of the single models or combine several of them to obtain a forecast with improved accuracy. In the almost 40 years of research in the area of forecast combination, an impressive amount of work has been done. This paper reviews forecast combination techniques that are nonlinear and have in some way been inspired by nature

Using intelligent optimization methods to improve the group method of data handling in time series prediction

In this paper we show how the performance of the basic algorithm of the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) can be improved using Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The new improved GMDH is then used to predict currency exchange rates: the US Dollar to the Euros. The performance of the hybrid GMDHs are compared with that of the conventional GMDH. Two performance measures, the root mean squared error and the mean absolute percentage errors show that the hybrid GMDH algorithm gives more accurate predictions than the conventional GMDH algorithm

One-Class Classification: Taxonomy of Study and Review of Techniques

One-class classification (OCC) algorithms aim to build classification models when the negative class is either absent, poorly sampled or not well defined. This unique situation constrains the learning of efficient classifiers by defining class boundary just with the knowledge of positive class. The OCC problem has been considered and applied under many research themes, such as outlier/novelty detection and concept learning. In this paper we present a unified view of the general problem of OCC by presenting a taxonomy of study for OCC problems, which is based on the availability of training data, algorithms used and the application domains applied. We further delve into each of the categories of the proposed taxonomy and present a comprehensive literature review of the OCC algorithms, techniques and methodologies with a focus on their significance, limitations and applications. We conclude our paper by discussing some open research problems in the field of OCC and present our vision for future research.Comment: 24 pages + 11 pages of references, 8 figure

Forecasting and Forecast Combination in Airline Revenue Management Applications

Predicting a variable for a future point in time helps planning for unknown future situations and is common practice in many areas such as economics, finance, manufacturing, weather and natural sciences. This paper investigates and compares approaches to forecasting and forecast combination that can be applied to service industry in general and to airline industry in particular. Furthermore, possibilities to include additionally available data like passenger-based information are discussed

Neural networks and support vector machines based bio-activity classification

Classification of various compounds into their respective biological activity classes is important in drug discovery applications from an early phase virtual compound filtering and screening point of view. In this work two types of neural networks, multi layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis functions (RBF), and support vector machines (SVM) were employed for the classification of three types of biologically active enzyme inhibitors. Both of the networks were trained with back propagation learning method with chemical compounds whose active inhibition properties were previously known. A group of topological indices, selected with the help of principle component analysis (PCA) were used as descriptors. The results of all the three classification methods show that the performance of both the neural networks is better than the SVM

Neuro-Fuzzy Computing System with the Capacity of Implementation on Memristor-Crossbar and Optimization-Free Hardware Training

In this paper, first we present a new explanation for the relation between logical circuits and artificial neural networks, logical circuits and fuzzy logic, and artificial neural networks and fuzzy inference systems. Then, based on these results, we propose a new neuro-fuzzy computing system which can effectively be implemented on the memristor-crossbar structure. One important feature of the proposed system is that its hardware can directly be trained using the Hebbian learning rule and without the need to any optimization. The system also has a very good capability to deal with huge number of input-out training data without facing problems like overtraining.Comment: 16 pages, 11 images, submitted to IEEE Trans. on Fuzzy system

The wavelet-NARMAX representation : a hybrid model structure combining polynomial models with multiresolution wavelet decompositions

A new hybrid model structure combing polynomial models with multiresolution wavelet decompositions is introduced for nonlinear system identification. Polynomial models play an important role in approximation theory, and have been extensively used in linear and nonlinear system identification. Wavelet decompositions, in which the basis functions have the property of localization in both time and frequency, outperform many other approximation schemes and offer a flexible solution for approximating arbitrary functions. Although wavelet representations can approximate even severe nonlinearities in a given signal very well, the advantage of these representations can be lost when wavelets are used to capture linear or low-order nonlinear behaviour in a signal. In order to sufficiently utilise the global property of polynomials and the local property of wavelet representations simultaneously, in this study polynomial models and wavelet decompositions are combined together in a parallel structure to represent nonlinear input-output systems. As a special form of the NARMAX model, this hybrid model structure will be referred to as the WAvelet-NARMAX model, or simply WANARMAX. Generally, such a WANARMAX representation for an input-output system might involve a large number of basis functions and therefore a great number of model terms. Experience reveals that only a small number of these model terms are significant to the system output. A new fast orthogonal least squares algorithm, called the matching pursuit orthogonal least squares (MPOLS) algorithm, is also introduced in this study to determine which terms should be included in the final model

Prediction in Photovoltaic Power by Neural Networks

The ability to forecast the power produced by renewable energy plants in the short and middle term is a key issue to allow a high-level penetration of the distributed generation into the grid infrastructure. Forecasting energy production is mandatory for dispatching and distribution issues, at the transmission system operator level, as well as the electrical distributor and power system operator levels. In this paper, we present three techniques based on neural and fuzzy neural networks, namely the radial basis function, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the higher-order neuro-fuzzy inference system, which are well suited to predict data sequences stemming from real-world applications. The preliminary results concerning the prediction of the power generated by a large-scale photovoltaic plant in Italy confirm the reliability and accuracy of the proposed approaches

Fusing MPEG-7 visual descriptors for image classification

This paper proposes three content-based image classification techniques based on fusing various low-level MPEG-7 visual descriptors. Fusion is necessary as descriptors would be otherwise incompatible and inappropriate to directly include e.g. in a Euclidean distance. Three approaches are described: A “merging” fusion combined with an SVM classifier, a back-propagation fusion combined with a KNN classifier and a Fuzzy-ART neurofuzzy network. In the latter case, fuzzy rules can be extracted in an effort to bridge the “semantic gap” between the low-level descriptors and the high-level semantics of an image. All networks were evaluated using content from the repository of the aceMedia project1 and more specifically in a beach/urban scene classification problem