Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

This paper, we studied the ability of geostatistical models (ordinary kriging (OK) and Inverse distance weighting (IDW)), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Winter method for prediction of seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions in Iran over the seasonal period 1986_2001. Results show that the best estimators in order are winter method, ANFIS and geostatistical methods. The results indicate that Winter and ANFIS had powerful results for prediction the prices while geostatistical models were not useful in this respect.Price; Geostatistical model; Kiriging; Inverse distance weighting; Winter’s method; Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system; Potatoes; Onions; Iran

Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

Price, Geostatistical model, Kiriging, Inverse distance weighting, Winter’s method, Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system, Potatoes, Onions, Iran, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis,

Artificial neural networks in geospatial analysis

Artificial neural networks are computational models widely used in geospatial analysis for data classification, change detection, clustering, function approximation, and forecasting or prediction. There are many types of neural networks based on learning paradigm and network architectures. Their use is expected to grow with increasing availability of massive data from remote sensing and mobile platforms

Fuzzy clustering with spatial-temporal information

Clustering geographical units based on a set of quantitative features observed at several time occasions requires to deal with the complexity of both space and time information. In particular, one should consider (1) the spatial nature of the units to be clustered, (2) the characteristics of the space of multivariate time trajectories, and (3) the uncertainty related to the assignment of a geographical unit to a given cluster on the basis of the above com- plex features. This paper discusses a novel spatially constrained multivariate time series clustering for units characterised by different levels of spatial proximity. In particular, the Fuzzy Partitioning Around Medoids algorithm with Dynamic Time Warping dissimilarity measure and spatial penalization terms is applied to classify multivariate Spatial-Temporal series. The clustering method has been theoretically presented and discussed using both simulated and real data, highlighting its main features. In particular, the capability of embedding different levels of proximity among units, and the ability of considering time series with different length

Copula-based fuzzy clustering of spatial time series

This paper contributes to the existing literature on the analysis of spatial time series presenting a new clustering algorithm called COFUST, i.e. COpula-based FUzzy clustering algorithm for Spatial Time series. The underlying idea of this algorithm is to perform a fuzzy Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) clustering using copula-based approach to interpret comovements of time series. This generalisation allows both to extend usual clustering methods for time series based on Pearson’s correlation and to capture the uncertainty that arises assigning units to clusters. Furthermore, its flexibility permits to include directly in the algorithm the spatial information. Our approach is presented and discussed using both simulated and real data, highlighting its main advantages

Fuzzy clustering of spatial interval-valued data

In this paper, two fuzzy clustering methods for spatial intervalvalued data are proposed, i.e. the fuzzy C-Medoids clustering of spatial interval-valued data with and without entropy regularization. Both methods are based on the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm, inheriting the great advantage of obtaining non-fictitious representative units for each cluster. In both methods, the units are endowed with a relation of contiguity, represented by a symmetric binary matrix. This can be intended both as contiguity in a physical space and as a more abstract notion of contiguity. The performances of the methods are proved by simulation, testing the methods with different contiguity matrices associated to natural clusters of units. In order to show the effectiveness of the methods in empirical studies, three applications are presented: the clustering of municipalities based on interval-valued pollutants levels, the clustering of European fact-checkers based on interval-valued data on the average number of impressions received by their tweets and the clustering of the residential zones of the city of Rome based on the interval of price values

Fuzzy clustering of spatial interval-valued data

In this paper, two fuzzy clustering methods for spatial interval-valued data are proposed, i.e. the fuzzy C-Medoids clustering of spatial interval-valued data with and without entropy regularization. Both methods are based on the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm, inheriting the great advantage of obtaining non-fictitious representative units for each cluster. In both methods, the units are endowed with a relation of contiguity, represented by a symmetric binary matrix. This can be intended both as contiguity in a physical space and as a more abstract notion of contiguity. The performances of the methods are proved by simulation, testing the methods with different contiguity matrices associated to natural clusters of units. In order to show the effectiveness of the methods in empirical studies, three applications are presented: the clustering of municipalities based on interval-valued pollutants levels, the clustering of European fact-checkers based on interval-valued data on the average number of impressions received by their tweets and the clustering of the residential zones of the city of Rome based on the interval of price values