Valuing adaptation under rapid change

AbstractThe methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change.Please cite this report as: Jones, RN, Young, CK, Handmer, J, Keating, A, Mekala, GD, Sheehan, P 2013 Valuing adaptation under rapid change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 192.The methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change

Creating a climate for food security: the business, people & landscapes in food production

AbstractBalancing human and environmental needs is urgent where food security and sustainability are under pressure from population increases and changing climates. Requirements of food security, social justice and environmental justice exacerbate the impact of agriculture on the supporting ecological environment. Viability of the Australian rural economy is intrinsically linked to food production and food security requiring systematic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural productivity.This food-systems research drew on global climate change literature to identify risks and adaptation. The transdisciplinary team applied specialist experience through collaboration in social science, economics and land-management to provide comprehensive methods to engage researchers and decision-makers making decisions across the food-system. Research focus on the dairy and horticulture sectors in the SW-WA and SEQld provided a comparative context in food-systems and regional economies. Expert knowledge was engaged through a series of panel meetings to test and challenge existing practice applying conceptual and empirical approaches in Structural Equation, Value-Chain, Supply-Chain modelling and Analytical Hierarchy modelling. This iterative action-research process provided immediate generation and transfer of expert knowledge across the involved sectors. The scenarios and adaptive strategies provide evidence-based pathways to strengthen food-systems; account for climate change mitigation and adaptation; and weather-proof regional economies in the face of climate change. Balancing human and environmental needs is urgent where food security and sustainability are under pressure from population increases and changing climates. Requirements of food security, social justice and environmental justice exacerbate the impact of agriculture on the supporting ecological environment. Viability of the Australian rural economy is intrinsically linked to food production and food security requiring systematic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural productivity.This food-systems research drew on global climate change literature to identify risks and adaptation. The transdisciplinary team applied specialist experience through collaboration in social science, economics and land-management to provide comprehensive methods to engage researchers and decision-makers making decisions across the food-system. Research focus on the dairy and horticulture sectors in the SW-WA and SEQld provided a comparative context in food-systems and regional economies. Expert knowledge was engaged through a series of panel meetings to test and challenge existing practice applying conceptual and empirical approaches in Structural Equation, Value-Chain, Supply-Chain modelling and Analytical Hierarchy modelling. This iterative action-research process provided immediate generation and transfer of expert knowledge across the involved sectors. The scenarios and adaptive strategies provide evidence-based pathways to strengthen food-systems; account for climate change mitigation and adaptation; and weather-proof regional economies in the face of climate change. The triple-bottom-line provided a comprehensive means of addressing social, economic and ecological requirements, and the modelling showed the interacting dynamics between these dimensions. In response to climate change, the agricultural sector must now optimise practices to address the interaction between economic, social and environmental investment. Differences in positions between the industry sector, the government and research sectors demonstrate the need for closer relationships between industry and government if climate change interventions are to be effectively targeted. Modelling shows that capacity for adaptation has a significant bearing on the success of implementing intervention strategies. Without intervention strategies to build viability and support, farm businesses are more likely to fail as a consequence of climate change. A framework of capitals that includes social components - cultural, human and social capital-, economic components -economic and physical capital - and ecological components -ecological and environmental capital - should be applied to address capacities. A priority assessment of climate change intervention strategies shows that strategies categorised as ‘Technology & Extension’ are most important in minimising risk from climate change impacts. To implement interventions to achieve ‘Food Business Resilience’, ‘Business Development’ strategies and alternative business models are most effective. ‘Research and Development’ interventions are essential to achieve enhanced ‘Adaptive Capacity’.The individual components of TBL Adaptive Capacity can be achieved through ‘Policy and Governance’ interventions for building ‘Social Capital’ capacity, ‘Research and Development’ will develop ‘Economic Capital’, and ‘Business Development’ strategies will build ‘Ecological Capital’.These strategic interventions will promote food security and maintain resilience in local food systems, agricultural production communities and markets, global industrial systems, and developing world food systems. Climate change mitigation and adaptation interventions reflect a rich conceptualisation drawing from the Australian context, but also acknowledging the moral context of global association.Please cite this report as:Wardell-Johnson, A, Uddin, N, Islam, N, Nath, T, Stockwell, B, Slade, C 2013 Creating a climate for food security: the businesses, people and landscapes in food production, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 144.Balancing human and environmental needs is urgent where food security and sustainability are under pressure from population increases and changing climates. Requirements of food security, social justice and environmental justice exacerbate the impact of agriculture on the supporting ecological environment. Viability of the Australian rural economy is intrinsically linked to food production and food security requiring systematic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural productivity.This food-systems research drew on global climate change literature to identify risks and adaptation. The transdisciplinary team applied specialist experience through collaboration in social science, economics and land-management to provide comprehensive methods to engage researchers and decision-makers making decisions across the food-system. Research focus on the dairy and horticulture sectors in the SW-WA and SEQld provided a comparative context in food-systems and regional economies. Expert knowledge was engaged through a series of panel meetings to test and challenge existing practice applying conceptual and empirical approaches in Structural Equation, Value-Chain, Supply-Chain modelling and Analytical Hierarchy modelling. This iterative action-research process provided immediate generation and transfer of expert knowledge across the involved sectors. The scenarios and adaptive strategies provide evidence-based pathways to strengthen food-systems; account for climate change mitigation and adaptation; and weather-proof regional economies in the face of climate change. The triple-bottom-line provided a comprehensive means of addressing social, economic and ecological requirements, and the modelling showed the interacting dynamics between these dimensions. In response to climate change, the agricultural sector must now optimise practices to address the interaction between economic, social and environmental investment. Differences in positions between the industry sector, the government and research sectors demonstrate the need for closer relationships between industry and government if climate change interventions are to be effectively targeted. Modelling shows that capacity for adaptation has a significant bearing on the success of implementing intervention strategies. Without intervention strategies to build viability and support, farm businesses are more likely to fail as a consequence of climate change. A framework of capitals that includes social components - cultural, human and social capital-, economic components -economic and physical capital - and ecological components -ecological and environmental capital - should be applied to address capacities. A priority assessment of climate change intervention strategies shows that strategies categorised as ‘Technology & Extension’ are most important in minimising risk from climate change impacts. To implement interventions to achieve ‘Food Business Resilience’, ‘Business Development’ strategies and alternative business models are most effective. ‘Research and Development’ interventions are essential to achieve enhanced ‘Adaptive Capacity’.The individual components of TBL Adaptive Capacity can be achieved through ‘Policy and Governance’ interventions for building ‘Social Capital’ capacity, ‘Research and Development’ will develop ‘Economic Capital’, and ‘Business Development’ strategies will build ‘Ecological Capital’.These strategic interventions will promote food security and maintain resilience in local food systems, agricultural production communities and markets, global industrial systems, and developing world food systems. Climate change mitigation and adaptation interventions reflect a rich conceptualisation drawing from the Australian context, but also acknowledging the moral context of global association

Framing adaptation in the Victorian context: synthesis report

This synthesis report provides a summary of the research activity and conveys the key findings arising from the 18 month ‘Framing Adaptation in the Victorian Context’ project undertaken between 2010 and 2012. Due to the complex nature of climate change adaptation, the original research program was designed to better understand the conceptual underpinnings of adaptation and then to translate this academic knowledge into ‘accessible’ content that could be more effectively used by those responsible for local adaptation planning - in essence, to ‘develop and test an operational framing of adaptation which will act as a decision-making roadmap to better inform adaptation policy and practice by Victorian authorities at the local and regional levels’.The analysis on framing was sub-divided into three discrete, though complementary and overlapping, research activities, to better understand different aspects of climate change adaptation in the Victorian context:1) The development of an overarching framework that illuminates and makes sense of the many different components that influence local adaptation processes;2) The framing of current and future climate-related impacts, and adaptation, as viewed through an economic lens; and3) A bottom-up analysis of adaptation, with a particular focus on the adaptive capacity of individuals and communities, as captured by a social narrative approach.Due to the context specific nature of adaptation (influenced by both the climate-related hazard and local vulnerability) the research activity on framing was intentionally grounded in real world situations through direct engagement with a portfolio of case studies including Greater Bendigo, City of Melbourne, Greater Geelong, and Port Fairy. Therefore whilst the research findings will be of generic interest to a wide range of end-users, the focus for this particular project was on the co-generation of new knowledge with local authorities. The economic analysis was based on climate-related events that have impacted the State in the recent past.Additional papers from the \u27Framing Adaptation in the Victorian Context\u27 project can be found here

Thoughts about a General Theory of Influence in a DIME/PMESII/ASCOP/IRC2 Model

The leading question of this paper is: “How would influence warfare (“iWar”) work and how can we simulate it?” The paper discusses foundational aspects of a theory and model of influence warfare by discussing a framework built along the DIME/PMESII/ASCOP dimension forming a prism with three axes. The DIME concept groups the many instruments of power a nation state can muster into four categories: Diplomacy, Information, Military and Economy. PMESII describes the operational environment in six domains: Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information and Infrastructure. ASCOPE is used in counter insurgency (COIN) environments to analyze the cultural and human environment (aka the “human terrain”) and encompasses Areas, Structures, Capabilities, Organization, People and Events. In addition, the model reflects about aspects of information collection requirements (ICR) and information capabilities requirements (ICR) - hence DIME/PMESII/ASCOP/ICR2. This model was developed from an influence wargame that was conducted in October 2018. This paper introduces basic methodical questions around model building in general and puts a special focus on building a framework for the problem space of influence/information/hybrid warfare takes its shape in. The article tries to describe mechanisms and principles in the information/influence space using cross discipline terminology (e.g. physics, chemistry and literature). On a more advanced level this article contributes to the Human, Social, Culture, Behavior (HSCB) models and community. One goal is to establish an academic, multinational and whole of government influence wargamer community. This paper introduces the idea of the perception field understood as a molecule of a story or narrative that influences an observer. This molecule can be drawn as a selection of vectors that can be built inside the DIME/PMESII/ASCOP prism. Each vector can be influenced by a shielding or shaping action. These ideas were explored in this influence wargame

Scientific knowledge and scientific uncertainty in bushfire and flood risk mitigation: literature review

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning (RMPP) project aims to investigate the diversity and uncertainty of bushfire and flood science, and its contribution to risk mitigation policy and planning. The project investigates how policy makers, practitioners, courts, inquiries and the community differentiate, understand and use scientific knowledge in relation to bushfire and flood risk. It uses qualitative social science methods and case studies to analyse how diverse types of knowledge are ordered and judged as salient, credible and authoritative, and the pragmatic meaning this holds for emergency management across the PPRR spectrum. This research report is the second literature review of the RMPP project and was written before any of the case studies had been completed. It synthesises approximately 250 academic sources on bushfire and flood risk science, including research on hazard modelling, prescribed burning, hydrological engineering, development planning, meteorology, climatology and evacuation planning. The report also incorporates theoretical insights from the fields of risk studies and science and technology studies (STS), as well as indicative research regarding the public understandings of science, risk communication and deliberative planning. This report outlines the key scientific practices (methods and knowledge) and scientific uncertainties in bushfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. Scientific uncertainties are those ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ that emerge from the development and utilisation of scientific knowledge. Risk mitigation involves those processes through which agencies attempt to limit the vulnerability of assets and values to a given hazard. The focus of this report is the uncertainties encountered and managed by risk mitigation professionals in regards to these two hazards, though literature regarding natural sciences and the scientific method more generally are also included where appropriate. It is important to note that while this report excludes professional experience and local knowledge from its consideration of uncertainties and knowledge, these are also very important aspects of risk mitigation which will be addressed in the RMPP project’s case studies. Key findings of this report include: Risk and scientific knowledge are both constructed categories, indicating that attempts to understand any individual instance of risk or scientific knowledge should be understood in light of the social, political, economic, and ecological context in which they emerge. Uncertainty is a necessary element of scientific methods, and as such risk mitigation practitioners and researchers alike should seek to ‘embrace uncertainty’ (Moore et al., 2005) as part of navigating bushfire and flood risk mitigation

Supporting evidence-based adaptation decision-making in Victoria: a synthesis of climate change adaptation research

This research synthesis provides policy-makers and practitioners with an understanding of the building blocks for effective adaptation decision-making, as evidenced through the NCCARF research program. It synthesised a portfolio of adaptation research for each Australian state and territory and addressing the complex relationships between research and policy development. Each state and territory synthesis report directs users to research relevant identified priorities

Spatial modelling of adaptation strategies for urban built infrastructures exposed to flood hazards

The recent 2010/2011 floods in the central and southern Queensland (Australia) prompted this research to investigate the application of geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing in modelling the current flood risk, adaptation/coping capacity, and adaptation strategies. Identified Brisbane City as the study area, the study aimed to develop a new approach of formulating adaptation/coping strategies that will aid in addressing flood risk management issues of an urban area with intensive residential and commercial uses. Fuzzy logic was the spatial analytical tool used in the integration of flood risk components (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) and in the generation of flood risk and adaptation capacity indices. The research shows that 875 ha, 566 ha, and 828 ha were described as areas with relatively low, relatively moderate, and relatively high risk to flooding, respectively. Identified adaptation strategies for areas classified as having relatively low (RL), relatively moderate (RM), relatively high (RH), and likely very high (LVH) adaptation/coping capacity were mitigation to recovery phases, mitigation to response phases, mitigation to preparedness phases, and mitigation phase, respectively. Integrating the results from the flood risk assessment, quantitative description of adaptation capacity, and identification of adaptation strategies, a new analytical technique identified as flood risk-adaptation capacity index-adaptation strategies (FRACIAS) linkage model was developed for this study

An indexing model for stormwater quality assessment: stormwater management in the Gold Coast

In the age of climate change and rapid urbanisation, stormwater management and water sensitive urban design have become important issues for urban policy makers. This paper reports the initial findings of a research study that develops an indexing model for assessing stormwater quality in the Gold Coast

Perspectives on contentions about climate change adaptation in the Canary Islands. A case study for Tenerife - Study

This technical report describes a case study on policy for adaptation to climate change delivered to DG-CLIMA. It is aimed at exploring climate change adaptation scenarios as well as concrete actions to increase climatic resilience in a small European island: Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain), the largest and most populated of the seven islands of the Canaries. The effects of climatic and non-climatic hazards on local population health and ecosystems are reviewed, such as heatwaves, air pollution and the atmospheric dust which comes from the Saharan dessert. The potential combination or overlapping effects of these hazards are also explored. According to the literature reviewed, heatwaves, air pollution, and Saharan dust events have been producing negative effects on the population, in terms of both morbidity and mortality, as well as the environment, such as forest fires related impacts. In terms of health impacts, elderly and people with chronic diseases are those more vulnerable to the previous hazards. As a consequence of both population ageing and the expected increasing extreme weather events, vulnerability is believed to worsen. There are currently a certain number of policies at both the Canary Islands scale and at Tenerife scale that, either directly or indirectly, might deal with the multiple hazards analysed here. However, most of these policies have neither been specifically developed to increase the resilience against heatwaves, Saharan dust events, and air pollution, nor to deal with their potential interactions. Therefore, their possible capability need to be explored along with other potential adaptation options. In order to do so, a participatory integrated assessment is proposed based on three steps: a first one intended to define the issue under analysis and frame the problematique of adaptation to climate change in Tenerife by means of in-depth interviews and a questionnaire; a second step envisioned to explore scenarios to increase the island resilience as well as concrete actions to reduce the vulnerability to heatwaves, Saharan dust intrusion, and air pollution, by means of focus group sessions; and a last step projected to build the scenarios for resilience (this third phase will be carried out in a later stage). For this purpose, different participatory techniques have been applied, such as questionnaires, in-depth interviews and focus group sessions, involving local key stakeholders as well as citizens and lay people. One of the findings of the analysis is that there is a lack of institutions in charge of climate change policy issues. According to most of the participants, the Islands need an institutional structure in charge of mainstreaming climate change policy into private and public institutions. A second finding indicates that an integrated climate change risk management plan is also needed as well as the investment in high-resolution regional climatic models. The following part of this study will be devoted to build scenarios for Tenerife. As it emerged from the present study, local citizens are not only concerned about adaptation to climate change, but also about how to be more resilient against external shocks, including extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change. Thus, those scenarios, still to be built, will propose paths that Tenerife may walk through from current times to 2040 in order to increase its resilience. These scenarios would concentrate on energy, agriculture, and food dependency, as well as other driving forces that might affect Tenerife’s resilienceEste informe técnico describe un estudio de caso sobre la política de adaptación al cambio climático entregado a la DG-CLIMA. Su objetivo es explorar los escenarios de adaptación al cambio climático así como las acciones concretas para aumentar la resistencia climática en una pequeña isla europea: Tenerife, Islas Canarias (España), la mayor y más poblada de las siete islas de las Canarias. Se revisan los efectos de los peligros climáticos y no climáticos sobre la salud de la población local y los ecosistemas, como las olas de calor, la contaminación del aire y el polvo atmosférico procedente del desierto del Sahara. También se exploran los posibles efectos combinados o superpuestos de estos peligros. De acuerdo con la literatura revisada, las olas de calor, la contaminación del aire y el polvo sahariano han estado produciendo efectos negativos en la población, tanto en términos de morbilidad como de mortalidad, así como en el medio ambiente, tales como los impactos relacionados con los incendios forestales. En cuanto a los impactos sobre la salud, los ancianos y las personas con enfermedades crónicas son los más vulnerables a los peligros anteriores. Como consecuencia tanto del envejecimiento de la población como del aumento previsto de los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos, se cree que la vulnerabilidad empeorará. Actualmente existe un cierto número de políticas tanto a escala de las Islas Canarias como a escala de Tenerife que, directa o indirectamente, podrían abordar las múltiples amenazas aquí analizadas. Sin embargo, la mayoría de estas políticas no se han desarrollado específicamente para aumentar la resiliencia frente a las olas de calor, los fenómenos de polvo sahariano y la contaminación atmosférica, ni para hacer frente a sus posibles interacciones. Por lo tanto, su posible capacidad debe ser explorada junto con otras opciones potenciales de adaptación. Para ello, se propone una evaluación participativa integrada basada en tres pasos: uno primero destinado a definir la cuestión analizada y enmarcar la problemática de la adaptación al cambio climático en Tenerife mediante entrevistas en profundidad y un cuestionario; un segundo paso previsto para explorar los escenarios para aumentar la resiliencia de la isla, así como acciones concretas para reducir la vulnerabilidad a las olas de calor, la intrusión de polvo sahariano y la contaminación atmosférica, mediante sesiones de grupos focales; y un último paso previsto para construir los escenarios de resiliencia (esta tercera fase se llevará a cabo en una etapa posterior). Para ello se han aplicado diferentes técnicas participativas, como cuestionarios, entrevistas en profundidad y sesiones de grupos focales, con la participación de los principales interesados locales, así como de ciudadanos y laicos. Una de las conclusiones del análisis es que hay una falta de instituciones a cargo de los temas de políticas de cambio climático. Según la mayoría de los participantes, las Islas necesitan una estructura institucional encargada de la incorporación de la política sobre el cambio climático en las instituciones públicas y privadas. Una segunda conclusión indica que también se necesita un plan de gestión integrada de los riesgos del cambio climático, así como la inversión en modelos climáticos regionales de alta resolución. La siguiente parte de este estudio estará dedicada a la construcción de escenarios para Tenerife. Tal y como se desprende del presente estudio, los ciudadanos locales no sólo están preocupados por la adaptación al cambio climático, sino también por la forma de ser más resistentes a los impactos externos, incluidos los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos como consecuencia del cambio climático. Así, estos escenarios, aún por construir, propondrán caminos que Tenerife podrá recorrer desde la época actual hasta el año 2040 para aumentar su resiliencia. Estos escenarios se concentrarían en la energía, la agricultura y la dependencia alimentaria, así como en otras fuerzas motrices que podrían afectar a la resiliencia de Tenerife