Prediction of Stocks and Stock Price using Artificial Intelligence : A Bibliometric Study using Scopus Database

Prediction of stocks and the prices of the stock is one of the most crucial points of discussion amongst the researchers and analysts in the financial domain to date. Every stakeholder and most importantly the investor desires to earn higher profit for his investment in the market and try to use several different strategies to invest their money. There are numerous methods to predict and analyse the movement of the stock prices. They are broadly divided into – statistical and artificial intelligence-based methods. Artificial intelligence is used to predict the futuristic prices of stocks and use wide range of algorithms like – SVMs, CNNs, LSTMs, RNNs , etc. This bibliometric study focusses on the study based primarily on the Scopus database. We have considered important keywords, authors, citations along with the correlations between the co-appearing authors, source titles and keywords with the use of network diagrams for visualisation. On the basis of this paper, we conclude that there is ample opportunity for research in the domain of financial market

Design Analysis and Implementation of Stock Market Forecasting System using Improved Soft Computing Technique

In this paper, a stock market prediction model was created utilizing artificial neural networks. Many people nowadays are attempting to predict future trends in bonds, currencies, equities, and stock markets. It is quite challenging for a capitalist and an industry to forecast changes in stock market prices. Due to the numerous economic, political, and psychological aspects at play, forecasting future value changes on the stock markets is quite challenging. In addition, stock market forecasting is a difficult endeavor because it relies on a wide range of known and unknown variables. Many approaches, including technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis, and statistical analysis are used to attempt to predict the share price; however, none of these methods has been demonstrated to be a consistently effective prediction tool. Artificial neural networks (ANNs), a subfield of artificial intelligence, are one of the most modern and promising methods for resolving financial issues, such as categorizing corporate bonds and anticipating stock market indexes and bankruptcy (AI). Artificial neural networks (ANN) are a prominent technology used to forecast the future of the stock market. In order to understand financial time series, it is often essential to extract relevant information from enormous data sets using artificial neural networks. An outcome prediction neural network with three layers is trained using the back propagation method. Analysis shows that ANN outperforms every other prediction technique now available to academics in terms of stock market price predictions. It is concluded that ANN is a useful technique for predicting stock market movements globally

Design and Modeling of Stock Market Forecasting Using Hybrid Optimization Techniques

In this paper, an artificial neural network-based stock market prediction model was developed. Today, a lot of individuals are making predictions about the direction of the bond, currency, equity, and stock markets. Forecasting fluctuations in stock market values is quite difficult for businesspeople and industries. Forecasting future value changes on the stock markets is exceedingly difficult since there are so many different economic, political, and psychological factors at play. Stock market forecasting is also a difficult endeavour since it depends on so many various known and unknown variables. There are several ways used to try to anticipate the share price, including technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis, and statistical analysis; however, none of these approaches has been shown to be a consistently reliable prediction tool. We built three alternative Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models to compare the outcomes. The average of the tuned models is used to create an ensemble model. Although comparable applications have been attempted in the literature, the data set is extremely difficult to work with because it only contains sharp peaks and falls with no seasonality. In this study, fuzzy c-means clustering, subtractive clustering, and grid partitioning are all used. The experiments we ran were designed to assess the effectiveness of various construction techniques used to our ANFIS models. When evaluating the outcomes, the metrics of R-squared and mean standard error are mostly taken into consideration. In the experiments, R-squared values of over.90 are attained

Short-Term Industrial Load Forecasting Based on Ensemble Hidden Markov Model

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) for industrial customers has been an essential task to reduce the cost of energy transaction and promote the stable operation of smart grid throughout the development of the modern power system. Traditional STLF methods commonly focus on establishing the non-linear relationship between loads and features, but ignore the temporal relationship between them. In this paper, an STLF method based on ensemble hidden Markov model (e-HMM) is proposed to track and learn the dynamic characteristics of industrial customer’s consumption patterns in correlated multivariate time series, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. Specifically, a novel similarity measurement strategy of log-likelihood space is designed to calculate the log-likelihood value of the multivariate time series in sliding time windows, which can effectively help the hidden Markov model (HMM) to capture the dynamic temporal characteristics from multiple historical sequences in similar patterns, so that the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. In order to improve the generalization ability and stability of a single HMM, we further adopt the framework of Bagging ensemble learning algorithm to reduce the prediction errors of a single model. The experimental study is implemented on a real dataset from a company in Hunan Province, China. We test the model in different forecasting periods. The results of multiple experiments and comparison with several state-of-the-art models show that the proposed approach has higher prediction accuracy

Adaptive sliding windows for improved estimation of data center resource utilization

Accurate prediction of data center resource utilization is required for capacity planning, job scheduling, energy saving, workload placement, and load balancing to utilize the resources efficiently. However, accurately predicting those resources is challenging due to dynamic workloads, heterogeneous infrastructures, and multi-tenant co-hosted applications. Existing prediction methods use fixed size observation windows which cannot produce accurate results because of not being adaptively adjusted to capture local trends in the most recent data. Therefore, those methods train on large fixed sliding windows using an irrelevant large number of observations yielding to inaccurate estimations or fall for inaccuracy due to degradation of estimations with short windows on quick changing trends. In this paper we propose a deep learning-based adaptive window size selection method, dynamically limiting the sliding window size to capture the trend for the latest resource utilization, then build an estimation model for each trend period. We evaluate the proposed method against multiple baseline and state-of-the-art methods, using real data-center workload data sets. The experimental evaluation shows that the proposed solution outperforms those state-of-the-art approaches and yields 16 to 54% improved prediction accuracy compared to the baseline methods.This work is partially supported by the European ResearchCouncil (ERC) under the EU Horizon 2020 programme(GA 639595), the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry andCompetitiveness (TIN2015-65316-P and IJCI2016-27485), theGeneralitat de Catalunya, Spain (2014-SGR-1051) and Universityof the Punjab, Pakistan. The statements made herein are solelythe responsibility of the authors.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Short-Term Industrial Load Forecasting Based on Ensemble Hidden Markov Model

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) for industrial customers has been an essential task to reduce the cost of energy transaction and promote the stable operation of smart grid throughout the development of the modern power system. Traditional STLF methods commonly focus on establishing the non-linear relationship between loads and features, but ignore the temporal relationship between them. In this paper, an STLF method based on ensemble hidden Markov model (e-HMM) is proposed to track and learn the dynamic characteristics of industrial customer’s consumption patterns in correlated multivariate time series, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. Specifically, a novel similarity measurement strategy of log-likelihood space is designed to calculate the log-likelihood value of the multivariate time series in sliding time windows, which can effectively help the hidden Markov model (HMM) to capture the dynamic temporal characteristics from multiple historical sequences in similar patterns, so that the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. In order to improve the generalization ability and stability of a single HMM, we further adopt the framework of Bagging ensemble learning algorithm to reduce the prediction errors of a single model. The experimental study is implemented on a real dataset from a company in Hunan Province, China. We test the model in different forecasting periods. The results of multiple experiments and comparison with several state-of-the-art models show that the proposed approach has higher prediction accuracy

The buttressed walls problem: An application of a hybrid clustering particle swarm optimization algorithm

[EN] The design of reinforced earth retaining walls is a combinatorial optimization problem of interest due to practical applications regarding the cost savings involved in the design and the optimization in the amount of CO2 emissions generated in its construction. On the other hand, this problem presents important challenges in computational complexity since it involves 32 design variables; therefore we have in the order of 10^20 possible combinations. In this article, we propose a hybrid algorithm in which the particle swarm optimization method is integrated that solves optimization problems in continuous spaces with the db-scan clustering technique, with the aim of addressing the combinatorial problem of the design of reinforced earth retaining walls. This algorithm optimizes two objective functions: the carbon emissions embedded and the economic cost of reinforced concrete walls. To assess the contribution of the db-scan operator in the optimization process, a random operator was designed. The best solutions, the averages, and the interquartile ranges of the obtained distributions are compared. The db-scan algorithm was then compared with a hybrid version that uses k-means as the discretization method and with a discrete implementation of the harmony search algorithm. The results indicate that the db-scan operator significantly improves the quality of the solutions and that the proposed metaheuristic shows competitive results with respect to the harmony search algorithm.The first author was supported by the Grant CONICYT/FONDECYT/INICIACION/11180056, the other two authors were supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, along with FEDER funding (Project: BIA2017-85098-R).Garcia, J.; Martí Albiñana, JV.; Yepes, V. (2020). The buttressed walls problem: An application of a hybrid clustering particle swarm optimization algorithm. Mathematics. 8(6):862-01-862-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8060862S862-01862-228

A holistic auto-configurable ensemble machine learning strategy for financial trading

Financial markets forecasting represents a challenging task for a series of reasons, such as the irregularity, high fluctuation, noise of the involved data, and the peculiar high unpredictability of the financial domain. Moreover, literature does not offer a proper methodology to systematically identify intrinsic and hyper-parameters, input features, and base algorithms of a forecasting strategy in order to automatically adapt itself to the chosen market. To tackle these issues, this paper introduces a fully automated optimized ensemble approach, where an optimized feature selection process has been combined with an automatic ensemble machine learning strategy, created by a set of classifiers with intrinsic and hyper-parameters learned in each marked under consideration. A series of experiments performed on different real-world futures markets demonstrate the effectiveness of such an approach with regard to both to the Buy and Hold baseline strategy and to several canonical state-of-the-art solutions