17,624 research outputs found

    A decision support system for demand and capacity modelling of an accident and emergency department

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    © 2019 Operational Research Society.Accident and emergency (A&E) departments in England have been struggling against severe capacity constraints. In addition, A&E demands have been increasing year on year. In this study, our aim was to develop a decision support system combining discrete event simulation and comparative forecasting techniques for the better management of the Princess Alexandra Hospital in England. We used the national hospital episodes statistics data-set including period April, 2009 – January, 2013. Two demand conditions are considered: the expected demand condition is based on A&E demands estimated by comparing forecasting methods, and the unexpected demand is based on the closure of a nearby A&E department due to budgeting constraints. We developed a discrete event simulation model to measure a number of key performance metrics. This paper presents a crucial study which will enable service managers and directors of hospitals to foresee their activities in future and form a strategic plan well in advance.Peer reviewe

    Utilization of big data to improve management of the emergency departments. Results of a systematic review

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    Background. The emphasis on using big data is growing exponentially in several sectors including biomedicine, life sciences and scientific research, mainly due to advances in information technologies and data analysis techniques. Actually, medical sciences can rely on a large amount of biomedical information and Big Data can aggregate information around multiple scales, from the DNA to the ecosystems. Given these premises, we wondered if big data could be useful to analyze complex systems such as the Emergency Departments (EDs) to improve their management and eventually patient outcomes. Methods. We performed a systematic review of the literature to identify the studies that implemented the application of big data in EDs and to describe what have already been done and what are the expectations, issues and challenges in this field. Results. Globally, eight studies met our inclusion criteria concerning three main activities: the management of ED visits, the ED process and activities and, finally, the prediction of the outcome of ED patients. Although the results of the studies show good perspectives regarding the use of big data in the management of emergency departments, there are still some issues that make their use still difficult. Most of the predictive models and algorithms have been applied only in retrospective studies, not considering the challenge and the costs of a real-time use of big data. Only few studies highlight the possible usefulness of the large volume of clinical data stored into electronic health records to generate evidence in real time. Conclusion. The proper use of big data in this field still requires a better management information flow to allow real-time application

    Improving Patient Flow & Reducing Emergency Department (ED) Crowding

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    Offers early lessons from RWJF's Urgent Matters Learning Network II, a six-hospital collaborative to assess the implementation of strategies for better patient flow and less crowding, develop standard performance measurements, and promote best practices

    The emergency observation and assessment ward

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    A recent development to reduce ED crowding and increase urgent patient admissions is the opening of an Emergency Observation and Assessment Ward (EOA Ward). At these wards urgent patients are temporarily hospitalized until they can be transferred to an inpatient bed. In this paper we present an overflow model to evaluate the effect of employing an EOA Ward on elective and urgent patient admissions

    Forecasting daily patient outflow from a ward having no real-time clinical data

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    OBJECTIVE: Our study investigates different models to forecast the total number of next-day discharges from an open ward having no real-time clinical data. METHODS: We compared 5 popular regression algorithms to model total next-day discharges: (1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), (2) the autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX), (3) k-nearest neighbor regression, (4) random forest regression, and (5) support vector regression. Although the autoregressive integrated moving average model relied on past 3-month discharges, nearest neighbor forecasting used median of similar discharges in the past in estimating next-day discharge. In addition, the ARMAX model used the day of the week and number of patients currently in ward as exogenous variables. For the random forest and support vector regression models, we designed a predictor set of 20 patient features and 88 ward-level features. RESULTS: Our data consisted of 12,141 patient visits over 1826 days. Forecasting quality was measured using mean forecast error, mean absolute error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error. When compared with a moving average prediction model, all 5 models demonstrated superior performance with the random forests achieving 22.7% improvement in mean absolute error, for all days in the year 2014. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of clinical information, our study recommends using patient-level and ward-level data in predicting next-day discharges. Random forest and support vector regression models are able to use all available features from such data, resulting in superior performance over traditional autoregressive methods. An intelligent estimate of available beds in wards plays a crucial role in relieving access block in emergency departments
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