Arrangement Infringement Possibility Approach: Some Economic Features of Large-Scale Events

The definition of arrangement infringement has been given. Several characteristics of hurricanes as large-scale events and objectives for the first stages of insurance data analysis have been sketched out. Scale hypotheses, insurance and investment problems have been formulated.risk, insurance, investment, choice, hurricanes

The economic impact of cybercrime and cyber espionage

Introduction Is cybercrime, cyber espionage, and other malicious cyber activities what some call “the greatest transfer of wealth in human history,” or is it what others say is a “rounding error in a fourteen trillion dollar economy?” The wide range of existing estimates of the annual loss—from a few billion dollars to hundreds of billions—reflects several difficulties. Companies conceal their losses and some are not aware of what has been taken. Intellectual property is hard to value. Some estimates relied on surveys, which provide very imprecise results unless carefully constructed. One common problem with cybersecurity surveys is that those who answer the questions “self-select,” introducing a possible source of distortion into the results. Given the data collection problems, loss estimates are based on assumptions about scale and effect— change the assumption and you get very different results. These problems leave many estimates open to question. The Components of Malicious Cyber Activity In this initial report we start by asking what we should count in estimating losses from cybercrime and cyber espionage. We can break malicious cyber activity into six parts: The loss of intellectual property and business confidential information Cybercrime, which costs the world hundreds of millions of dollars every year The loss of sensitive business information, including possible stock market manipulation Opportunity costs, including service and employment disruptions, and reduced trust for online activities The additional cost of securing networks, insurance, and recovery from cyber attacks Reputational damage to the hacked company Put these together and the cost of cybercrime and cyber espionage to the global economy is probably measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars. To put this in perspective, the World Bank says that global GDP was about $70 trillion in 2011. A$400 billion loss—the high end of the range of probable costs—would be a fraction of a percent of global income. But this begs several important questions about the full benefit to the acquirers and the damage to the victims from the cumulative effect of cybercrime and cyber espionage

Regulatory Issues in Electronic Money: A Legal-Economics Analysis.

In this paper we examine regulatory issues relating to electronic money. The discussion proceeds along three main lines. Firstly, the focus of attention on the potential risks to the financial system is typically on the systemic risk arising from the payments system. Since issuers of electronic money automatically become part of the payments system, we consider if the arguments relating to systemic risk originating in the payments system apply in the case of electronic money. Secondly, we examine the sharp divergence in regulatory approaches between the US and the EU, and suggest that a useful way of reconciling this divergence is to note the existence of a tradeoff between the efficiency of the financial system and the amount of risk assumed by the public sector. This means that there is not necessarily a 'correct' answer to the question of the desirability of regulation. Thirdly, technological advances and financial innovations have made it easier for firms to engage in regulatory arbitrage. Competitive pressures may have encouraged financial centres to engage in competitive deregulation, resulting in a less than socially optimal level of regulation overall. It is therefore important that national authorities coordinate and harmonise their regulatory policies.REGULATION ; ELECTRONIC MONEY ; FINANCIAL SYSTEMS

How management innovation happens

Management innovation — that is, the implementation of new management practices, processes and structures that represent a significant departure from current norms — has over time dramatically transformed the way many functions and activities work in organizations. Many of the practices, processes and structures that we see in modern business organizations were developed during the last 150 years by the creative efforts of management innovators. Those innovators have included well-known names like Alfred P. Sloan and Frederick Taylor, as well as numerous other unheralded individuals and small groups of people who all sought to improve the internal workings of organizations by trying something new

Deriving Models for Software Project Effort Estimation By Means of Genetic Programming

Software engineering, effort estimation, genetic programming, symbolic regression. This paper presents the application of a computational intelligence methodology in effort estimation for software projects. Namely, we apply a genetic programming model for symbolic regression; aiming to produce mathematical expressions that (1) are highly accurate and (2) can be used for estimating the development effort by revealing relationships between the project’s features and the required work. We selected to investigate the effectiveness of this methodology into two software engineering domains. The system was proved able to generate models in the form of handy mathematical expressions that are more accurate than those found in literature.

Structured Analogies for Forecasting

When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how similar the analogies are to the target situation, and match the outcomes of the analogies with possible outcomes of the target. An administrator would then derive a forecast from the experts information. We compared structured analogies with unaided judgments for predicting the decisions made in eight conflict situations. These were difficult forecasting problems; the 32% accuracy of the unaided experts was only slightly better than chance. In contrast, 46% of structured analogies forecasts were accurate. Among experts who were independently able to think of two or more analogies and who had direct experience with their closest analogy, 60% of forecasts were accurate. Collaboration did not improve accuracy.accuracy, analogies, collaboration, conflict, expert, forecasting, judgment.

Structured analogies for forecasting

When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how similar the analogies are to the target situation, and match the outcomes of the analogies with possible outcomes of the target. An administrator would then derive a forecast from the experts' information. We compared structured analogies with unaided judgments for predicting the decisions made in eight conflict situations. These were difficult forecasting problems; the 32% accuracy of the unaided experts was only slightly better than chance. In contrast, 46% of structured analogies forecasts were accurate. Among experts who were independently able to think of two or more analogies and who had direct experience with their closest analogy, 60% of forecasts were accurate. Collaboration did not improve accuracy.accuracy, analogies, collaboration, conflict, expert, forecasting, judgment.