Fast supersymmetry phenomenology at the Large Hadron Collider using machine learning techniques

A pressing problem for supersymmetry (SUSY) phenomenologists is how to incorporate Large Hadron Collider search results into parameter fits designed to measure or constrain the SUSY parameters. Owing to the computational expense of fully simulating lots of points in a generic SUSY space to aid the calculation of the likelihoods, the limits published by experimental collaborations are frequently interpreted in slices of reduced parameter spaces. For example, both ATLAS and CMS have presented results in the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Model (CMSSM) by fixing two of four parameters, and generating a coarse grid in the remaining two. We demonstrate that by generating a grid in the full space of the CMSSM, one can interpolate between the output of an LHC detector simulation using machine learning techniques, thus obtaining a superfast likelihood calculator for LHC-based SUSY parameter fits. We further investigate how much training data is required to obtain usable results, finding that approximately 2000 points are required in the CMSSM to get likelihood predictions to an accuracy of a few per cent. The techniques presented here provide a general approach for adding LHC event rate data to SUSY fitting algorithms, and can easily be used to explore other candidate physics models.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, replaced to correct author contact detail

(Machine) Learning to Do More with Less

Determining the best method for training a machine learning algorithm is critical to maximizing its ability to classify data. In this paper, we compare the standard "fully supervised" approach (that relies on knowledge of event-by-event truth-level labels) with a recent proposal that instead utilizes class ratios as the only discriminating information provided during training. This so-called "weakly supervised" technique has access to less information than the fully supervised method and yet is still able to yield impressive discriminating power. In addition, weak supervision seems particularly well suited to particle physics since quantum mechanics is incompatible with the notion of mapping an individual event onto any single Feynman diagram. We examine the technique in detail -- both analytically and numerically -- with a focus on the robustness to issues of mischaracterizing the training samples. Weakly supervised networks turn out to be remarkably insensitive to systematic mismodeling. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the event level outputs for weakly versus fully supervised networks are probing different kinematics, even though the numerical quality metrics are essentially identical. This implies that it should be possible to improve the overall classification ability by combining the output from the two types of networks. For concreteness, we apply this technology to a signature of beyond the Standard Model physics to demonstrate that all these impressive features continue to hold in a scenario of relevance to the LHC.Comment: 32 pages, 12 figures. Example code is provided at https://github.com/bostdiek/PublicWeaklySupervised . v3: Version published in JHEP, discussion adde

The BSM-AI project: SUSY-AI - Generalizing LHC limits on Supersymmetry with Machine Learning

A key research question at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the test of models of new physics. Testing if a particular parameter set of such a model is excluded by LHC data is a challenge: It requires the time consuming generation of scattering events, the simulation of the detector response, the event reconstruction, cross section calculations and analysis code to test against several hundred signal regions defined by the ATLAS and CMS experiment. In the BSM-AI project we attack this challenge with a new approach. Machine learning tools are thought to predict within a fraction of a millisecond if a model is excluded or not directly from the model parameters. A first example is SUSY-AI, trained on the phenomenological supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM). About 300,000 pMSSM model sets - each tested with 200 signal regions by ATLAS - have been used to train and validate SUSY-AI. The code is currently able to reproduce the ATLAS exclusion regions in 19 dimensions with an accuracy of at least 93 percent. It has been validated further within the constrained MSSM and a minimal natural supersymmetric model, again showing high accuracy. SUSY-AI and its future BSM derivatives will help to solve the problem of recasting LHC results for any model of new physics. SUSY-AI can be downloaded at http://susyai.hepforge.org/. An on-line interface to the program for quick testing purposes can be found at http://www.susy-ai.org/

Should we still believe in constrained supersymmetry?

We calculate Bayes factors to quantify how the feasibility of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM) has changed in the light of a series of observations. This is done in the Bayesian spirit where probability reflects a degree of belief in a proposition and Bayes' theorem tells us how to update it after acquiring new information. Our experimental baseline is the approximate knowledge that was available before LEP, and our comparison model is the Standard Model with a simple dark matter candidate. To quantify the amount by which experiments have altered our relative belief in the CMSSM since the baseline data we compute the Bayes factors that arise from learning in sequence the LEP Higgs constraints, the XENON100 dark matter constraints, the 2011 LHC supersymmetry search results, and the early 2012 LHC Higgs search results. We find that LEP and the LHC strongly shatter our trust in the CMSSM (with $M_0$ and $M_{1/2}$ below 2 TeV), reducing its posterior odds by a factor of approximately two orders of magnitude. This reduction is largely due to substantial Occam factors induced by the LEP and LHC Higgs searches.Comment: 38 pages, 14 figures; version as published in EPJ