Machine learning and its applications in reliability analysis systems

In this thesis, we are interested in exploring some aspects of Machine Learning (ML) and its application in the Reliability Analysis systems (RAs). We begin by investigating some ML paradigms and their- techniques, go on to discuss the possible applications of ML in improving RAs performance, and lastly give guidelines of the architecture of learning RAs. Our survey of ML covers both levels of Neural Network learning and Symbolic learning. In symbolic process learning, five types of learning and their applications are discussed: rote learning, learning from instruction, learning from analogy, learning from examples, and learning from observation and discovery. The Reliability Analysis systems (RAs) presented in this thesis are mainly designed for maintaining plant safety supported by two functions: risk analysis function, i.e., failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) ; and diagnosis function, i.e., real-time fault location (RTFL). Three approaches have been discussed in creating the RAs. According to the result of our survey, we suggest currently the best design of RAs is to embed model-based RAs, i.e., MORA (as software) in a neural network based computer system (as hardware). However, there are still some improvement which can be made through the applications of Machine Learning. By implanting the 'learning element', the MORA will become learning MORA (La MORA) system, a learning Reliability Analysis system with the power of automatic knowledge acquisition and inconsistency checking, and more. To conclude our thesis, we propose an architecture of La MORA

An integrated approach to system design, reliability, and diagnosis

The requirement for ultradependability of computer systems in future avionics and space applications necessitates a top-down, integrated systems engineering approach for design, implementation, testing, and operation. The functional analyses of hardware and software systems must be combined by models that are flexible enough to represent their interactions and behavior. The information contained in these models must be accessible throughout all phases of the system life cycle in order to maintain consistency and accuracy in design and operational decisions. One approach being taken by researchers at Ames Research Center is the creation of an object-oriented environment that integrates information about system components required in the reliability evaluation with behavioral information useful for diagnostic algorithms. Procedures have been developed at Ames that perform reliability evaluations during design and failure diagnoses during system operation. These procedures utilize information from a central source, structured as object-oriented fault trees. Fault trees were selected because they are a flexible model widely used in aerospace applications and because they give a concise, structured representation of system behavior. The utility of this integrated environment for aerospace applications in light of our experiences during its development and use is described. The techniques for reliability evaluation and failure diagnosis are discussed, and current extensions of the environment and areas requiring further development are summarized

Review of recent research towards power cable life cycle management

Power cables are integral to modern urban power transmission and distribution systems. For power cable asset managers worldwide, a major challenge is how to manage effectively the expensive and vast network of cables, many of which are approaching, or have past, their design life. This study provides an in-depth review of recent research and development in cable failure analysis, condition monitoring and diagnosis, life assessment methods, fault location, and optimisation of maintenance and replacement strategies. These topics are essential to cable life cycle management (LCM), which aims to maximise the operational value of cable assets and is now being implemented in many power utility companies. The review expands on material presented at the 2015 JiCable conference and incorporates other recent publications. The review concludes that the full potential of cable condition monitoring, condition and life assessment has not fully realised. It is proposed that a combination of physics-based life modelling and statistical approaches, giving consideration to practical condition monitoring results and insulation response to in-service stress factors and short term stresses, such as water ingress, mechanical damage and imperfections left from manufacturing and installation processes, will be key to success in improved LCM of the vast amount of cable assets around the world

Machine condition prognosis based on regression trees and one-step-ahead prediction

Predicting degradation of working conditions of machinery and trending of fault propagation before they reach the alarm or failure threshold is extremely importance in industry to fully utilize the machine production capacity. This paper proposes a method to predict future conditions of machines based on one-step-ahead prediction of time-series forecasting techniques and regression trees. In this study, the embedding dimension is firstly estimated in order to determine the necessary available observations for predicting the next value in the future. This value is subsequently utilized for regression tree predictor. Real trending data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine are employed for evaluating the proposed method. The results indicate that the proposed method offers a potential for machine condition prognosi

A probabilistic model for information and sensor validation

This paper develops a new theory and model for information and sensor validation. The model represents relationships between variables using Bayesian networks and utilizes probabilistic propagation to estimate the expected values of variables. If the estimated value of a variable differs from the actual value, an apparent fault is detected. The fault is only apparent since it may be that the estimated value is itself based on faulty data. The theory extends our understanding of when it is possible to isolate real faults from potential faults and supports the development of an algorithm that is capable of isolating real faults without deferring the problem to the use of expert provided domain-specific rules. To enable practical adoption for real-time processes, an any time version of the algorithm is developed, that, unlike most other algorithms, is capable of returning improving assessments of the validity of the sensors as it accumulates more evidence with time. The developed model is tested by applying it to the validation of temperature sensors during the start-up phase of a gas turbine when conditions are not stable; a problem that is known to be challenging. The paper concludes with a discussion of the practical applicability and scalability of the model

ART Neural Networks: Distributed Coding and ARTMAP Applications

ART (Adaptive Resonance Theory) neural networks for fast, stable learning and prediction have been applied in a variety of areas. Applications include airplane design and manufacturing, automatic target recognition, financial forecasting, machine tool monitoring, digital circuit design, chemical analysis, and robot vision. Supervised ART architectures, called ARTMAP systems, feature internal control mechanisms that create stable recognition categories of optimal size by maximizing code compression while minimizing predictive error in an on-line setting. Special-purpose requirements of various application domains have led to a number of ARTMAP variants, including fuzzy ARTMAP, ART-EMAP, Gaussian ARTMAP, and distributed ARTMAP. ARTMAP has been used for a variety of applications, including computer-assisted medical diagnosis. Medical databases present many of the challenges found in general information management settings where speed, efficiency, ease of use, and accuracy are at a premium. A direct goal of improved computer-assisted medicine is to help deliver quality emergency care in situations that may be less than ideal. Working with these problems has stimulated a number of ART architecture developments, including ARTMAP-IC [1]. This paper describes a recent collaborative effort, using a new cardiac care database for system development, has brought together medical statisticians and clinicians at the New England Medical Center with researchers developing expert systems and neural networks, in order to create a hybrid method for medical diagnosis. The paper also considers new neural network architectures, including distributed ART {dART), a real-time model of parallel distributed pattern learning that permits fast as well as slow adaptation, without catastrophic forgetting. Local synaptic computations in the dART model quantitatively match the paradoxical phenomenon of Markram-Tsodyks [2] redistribution of synaptic efficacy, as a consequence of global system hypotheses.Office of Naval Research (N00014-95-1-0409, N00014-95-1-0657

Diagnosis of an EPS module

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e ComputadoresThis thesis addresses and contextualizes the problem of diagnostic of an Evolvable Production System (EPS). An EPS is a complex and lively entity composed of intelligent modules that interact through bio-inspired mechanisms, to ensure high system availability and seamless reconfiguration. The actual economic situation together with the increasing demand of high quality and low priced customized products imposed a shift in the production policies of enterprises. Shop floors have to become more agile and flexible to accommodate the new production paradigms. Rather than selling products enterprises are establishing a trend of offering services to explore business opportunities. The new production paradigms, potentiated by the advances in Information Technologies (IT), especially in web related standards and technologies as well as the progressive acceptance of the multi-agent systems (MAS) concept and related technologies, envision collections of modules whose individual and collective function adapts and evolves ensuring the fitness and adequacy of the shop floor in tackling profitable but volatile business opportunities. Despite the richness of the interactions and the effort set in modelling them, their potential to favour fault propagation and interference, in these complex environments, has been ignored from a diagnostic point of view. With the increase of distributed and autonomous components that interact in the execution of processes current diagnostic approaches will soon be insufficient. While current system dynamics are complex and to a certain extent unpredictable the adoption of the next generation of approaches and technologies comes at the cost of a yet increased complexity.Whereas most of the research in such distributed industrial systems is focused in the study and establishment of control structures, the problem of diagnosis has been left relatively unattended. There are however significant open challenges in the diagnosis of such modular systems including: understanding fault propagation and ensuring scalability and co-evolution. This work provides an implementation of a state-of-the-art agent-based interaction-oriented architecture compliant with the EPS paradigm that supports the introduction of a new developed diagnostic algorithm that has the ability to cope with the modern manufacturing paradigm challenges and to provide diagnostic analysis that explores the network dimension of multi-agent systems

An overview of decision table literature 1982-1995.

This report gives an overview of the literature on decision tables over the past 15 years. As much as possible, for each reference, an author supplied abstract, a number of keywords and a classification are provided. In some cases own comments are added. The purpose of these comments is to show where, how and why decision tables are used. The literature is classified according to application area, theoretical versus practical character, year of publication, country or origin (not necessarily country of publication) and the language of the document. After a description of the scope of the interview, classification results and the classification by topic are presented. The main body of the paper is the ordered list of publications with abstract, classification and comments.