Employment growth, inflation and output growth: Was phillips right? Evidence from a dynamic panel

Copyright @ 2011 Brunel UniversityIn this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in Phillips’ tradition. For this purpose we apply FMOLS, DOLS, PMGE, MGE, DFE, and VECM methods to a nonstationary heterogeneous dynamic panel including annual data for 119 countries over the period 1970-2010, and also carry out multivariate Granger causality tests. The empirical results strongly support the existence of a single cointegrating relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output growth, giving support to Phillips’ Golden Triangle theory

The Dynamics of International R & D spillovers

Coe and Helpman (1995) among others report positive and equivalent R&D spillovers across groups of countries. However, the nature of their econometric tests does not address the heterogeneity of knowledge diffusion across countries. We empirically examine these issues in a sample of 10 OECD countries by extending both the time span and the coverage of R&D activities in the data set. We find that the elasticity of total factor productivity with respect to domestic and foreign R&D stocks is extremely heterogeneous across countries and that data cannot be pooled. Thus, panel estimates conceal important cross-country differences. The US appears to be a net loser in terms of international R&D spillovers. Our interpretation is that when competitors ‘catch-up’ technologically, they challenge US market shares and investments worldwide. This has implications for US productivity

Are international R&D spillovers costly for the US?

Coe and Helpman (1995) and others report positive and equivalent R&D spillovers across G7 countries. We argue that their homogeneity constraint on spillovers across G7 countries is inappropriate, and show that it is rejected by the data. Extending the data set and applying new empirical approaches, we find: (i) R&D spillovers are extremely heterogeneous across G7 countries; (ii) panel estimates do not correspond to country specific estimates and conceal important cross-country differences in knowledge diffusion; and (iii) the US is a net loser in terms of international R&D spillovers. Our interpretation is that when competitors ‘catch-up’ technologically, they challenge US market shares and investments worldwide and this has implications for US productivity

Long-run pass-through from the exchange rate to import prices in African countries

This paper investigates the extent of pass-through from the nominal exchange rate to import prices for a sample of nineteen African countries. The methodology is based on panel data cointegration testing. Using annual data extending back to 1971, long-run pass-through can be best described as a fairly balanced combination of local-currency and producer-currency pricing. However, this paper offers additional insight from a moving window approach that indicates declining long-run pass-through, accompanied by decreasing inflation, occurring since the mid-1990s

Money Demand and Disinflation in Selected CEECs during the Accession to the EU

A panel data set for six countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) is used to estimate money demand with panel cointegration methods over the recent disinflation period. The basic money demand model is able to convincingly explain the long-run dynamics of M2 in the selected countries. However, money demand is found to have been significantly determined by the euro area interest rates and the exchange rate against the euro, which indicates possible instability of money demand functions in the CEECs. Therefore, direct inflation targeting is an appropriate monetary regime before the eventual adoption of the euro

Efficiency measurement with nonstationary variables: an application of panel cointegration techniques

In this paper, we apply panel cointegration tests and estimation techniques to obtain efficiency measures when it is uncertain whether the underlying technological relationship is structural or spurious due to possible non-stationarity of the data. We illustrate the dangers of efficiency measurement with panel data when integration and cointegration are not taken into account. We apply these techniques to efficiency measurement in U.S. airlines and find striking differences compared to results obtained with the traditional approach.Cointegration

Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels

This chapter uses fully modified OLS principles to develop new methods for estimating and testing hypotheses for cointegrating vectors in dynamic panels in a manner that is consistent with the degree of cross sectional heterogeneity that has been permitted in recent panel unit root and panel cointegration studies. The asymptotic properties of various estimators are compared based on pooling along the ‘within’ and ‘between’ dimensions of the panel. By using Monte Carlo simulations to study the small sample properties, the group mean estimator is shown to behave well even in relatively small samples under a variety of scenarios.

An International Comparison of Health Care Expenditure Determinants

In this paper, we estimate a health care demand function for 18 OECD countries for the period 1972-1995. We consider a demand side approach where health expenditure depend on per capita GDP and the relative price of health care. We use panel data unit root and stationarity tests to characterize our data. Then, we test cointegration between our variables with Kao[16] panel data cointegration tests. As we accept cointegration, we compare different estimators (OLS, FMOLS, DOLS). Results give conflicting evidence for the value of health expenditure income elasticity. The least biased estimator gives a value that exceeds unity.Cointegration, Health Expenditure, OECD, Panel test

Cointegration and the demand for gasoline

Since the early 1970s there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline. Therefore, demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention. However, since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting, following Amarawickrama and Hunt (2008), this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with 6 alternative time series techniques with data from Fiji. Estimates with these 6 alternative techniques are very close and thus increase our confidence in them. We found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic.Gasoline Demand, Income and price elasticities, Cointegration

Estimates of the steady state growth rates for the Scandinavian countries: a knowledge economy approach

This paper estimates the steady state growth rate for Scandinavian countries with a “knowledge economy” approach. We shall use an extended version of the Solow (1956) growth model, in which total factor productivity is assumed to be a function of human capital (measured by average years of education), trade openness and investment ratio. Using this framework we show that these factors, and in particular the education variable, have played an important role to determine the long run growth rates of the Scandinavian countries. Some policy measures are identified to improve the long-run growth rates for these countries.Endogenous growth models, Trade openness, human capital, investment ratio, Steady state growth rate, Scandinavian countr