Lower Complexity Bounds for Lifted Inference

One of the big challenges in the development of probabilistic relational (or probabilistic logical) modeling and learning frameworks is the design of inference techniques that operate on the level of the abstract model representation language, rather than on the level of ground, propositional instances of the model. Numerous approaches for such "lifted inference" techniques have been proposed. While it has been demonstrated that these techniques will lead to significantly more efficient inference on some specific models, there are only very recent and still quite restricted results that show the feasibility of lifted inference on certain syntactically defined classes of models. Lower complexity bounds that imply some limitations for the feasibility of lifted inference on more expressive model classes were established early on in (Jaeger 2000). However, it is not immediate that these results also apply to the type of modeling languages that currently receive the most attention, i.e., weighted, quantifier-free formulas. In this paper we extend these earlier results, and show that under the assumption that NETIME =/= ETIME, there is no polynomial lifted inference algorithm for knowledge bases of weighted, quantifier- and function-free formulas. Further strengthening earlier results, this is also shown to hold for approximate inference, and for knowledge bases not containing the equality predicate.Comment: To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP

Tractability through Exchangeability: A New Perspective on Efficient Probabilistic Inference

Exchangeability is a central notion in statistics and probability theory. The assumption that an infinite sequence of data points is exchangeable is at the core of Bayesian statistics. However, finite exchangeability as a statistical property that renders probabilistic inference tractable is less well-understood. We develop a theory of finite exchangeability and its relation to tractable probabilistic inference. The theory is complementary to that of independence and conditional independence. We show that tractable inference in probabilistic models with high treewidth and millions of variables can be understood using the notion of finite (partial) exchangeability. We also show that existing lifted inference algorithms implicitly utilize a combination of conditional independence and partial exchangeability.Comment: In Proceedings of the 28th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligenc

Lifted Variable Elimination for Probabilistic Logic Programming

Lifted inference has been proposed for various probabilistic logical frameworks in order to compute the probability of queries in a time that depends on the size of the domains of the random variables rather than the number of instances. Even if various authors have underlined its importance for probabilistic logic programming (PLP), lifted inference has been applied up to now only to relational languages outside of logic programming. In this paper we adapt Generalized Counting First Order Variable Elimination (GC-FOVE) to the problem of computing the probability of queries to probabilistic logic programs under the distribution semantics. In particular, we extend the Prolog Factor Language (PFL) to include two new types of factors that are needed for representing ProbLog programs. These factors take into account the existing causal independence relationships among random variables and are managed by the extension to variable elimination proposed by Zhang and Poole for dealing with convergent variables and heterogeneous factors. Two new operators are added to GC-FOVE for treating heterogeneous factors. The resulting algorithm, called LP$^2$ for Lifted Probabilistic Logic Programming, has been implemented by modifying the PFL implementation of GC-FOVE and tested on three benchmarks for lifted inference. A comparison with PITA and ProbLog2 shows the potential of the approach.Comment: To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP). arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1402.0565 by other author

Lifted Relax, Compensate and then Recover: From Approximate to Exact Lifted Probabilistic Inference

We propose an approach to lifted approximate inference for first-order probabilistic models, such as Markov logic networks. It is based on performing exact lifted inference in a simplified first-order model, which is found by relaxing first-order constraints, and then compensating for the relaxation. These simplified models can be incrementally improved by carefully recovering constraints that have been relaxed, also at the first-order level. This leads to a spectrum of approximations, with lifted belief propagation on one end, and exact lifted inference on the other. We discuss how relaxation, compensation, and recovery can be performed, all at the firstorder level, and show empirically that our approach substantially improves on the approximations of both propositional solvers and lifted belief propagation.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2012

On the Complexity and Approximation of Binary Evidence in Lifted Inference

Lifted inference algorithms exploit symmetries in probabilistic models to speed up inference. They show impressive performance when calculating unconditional probabilities in relational models, but often resort to non-lifted inference when computing conditional probabilities. The reason is that conditioning on evidence breaks many of the model's symmetries, which can preempt standard lifting techniques. Recent theoretical results show, for example, that conditioning on evidence which corresponds to binary relations is #P-hard, suggesting that no lifting is to be expected in the worst case. In this paper, we balance this negative result by identifying the Boolean rank of the evidence as a key parameter for characterizing the complexity of conditioning in lifted inference. In particular, we show that conditioning on binary evidence with bounded Boolean rank is efficient. This opens up the possibility of approximating evidence by a low-rank Boolean matrix factorization, which we investigate both theoretically and empirically.Comment: To appear in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26 (NIPS), Lake Tahoe, USA, December 201