Exponentially Fast Parameter Estimation in Networks Using Distributed Dual Averaging

In this paper we present an optimization-based view of distributed parameter estimation and observational social learning in networks. Agents receive a sequence of random, independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) signals, each of which individually may not be informative about the underlying true state, but the signals together are globally informative enough to make the true state identifiable. Using an optimization-based characterization of Bayesian learning as proximal stochastic gradient descent (with Kullback-Leibler divergence from a prior as a proximal function), we show how to efficiently use a distributed, online variant of Nesterov's dual averaging method to solve the estimation with purely local information. When the true state is globally identifiable, and the network is connected, we prove that agents eventually learn the true parameter using a randomized gossip scheme. We demonstrate that with high probability the convergence is exponentially fast with a rate dependent on the KL divergence of observations under the true state from observations under the second likeliest state. Furthermore, our work also highlights the possibility of learning under continuous adaptation of network which is a consequence of employing constant, unit stepsize for the algorithm.Comment: 6 pages, To appear in Conference on Decision and Control 201

Distributed Learning from Interactions in Social Networks

We consider a network scenario in which agents can evaluate each other according to a score graph that models some interactions. The goal is to design a distributed protocol, run by the agents, that allows them to learn their unknown state among a finite set of possible values. We propose a Bayesian framework in which scores and states are associated to probabilistic events with unknown parameters and hyperparameters, respectively. We show that each agent can learn its state by means of a local Bayesian classifier and a (centralized) Maximum-Likelihood (ML) estimator of parameter-hyperparameter that combines plain ML and Empirical Bayes approaches. By using tools from graphical models, which allow us to gain insight on conditional dependencies of scores and states, we provide a relaxed probabilistic model that ultimately leads to a parameter-hyperparameter estimator amenable to distributed computation. To highlight the appropriateness of the proposed relaxation, we demonstrate the distributed estimators on a social interaction set-up for user profiling.Comment: This submission is a shorter work (for conference publication) of a more comprehensive paper, already submitted as arXiv:1706.04081 (under review for journal publication). In this short submission only one social set-up is considered and only one of the relaxed estimators is proposed. Moreover, the exhaustive analysis, carried out in the longer manuscript, is completely missing in this versio

Online Learning of Dynamic Parameters in Social Networks

This paper addresses the problem of online learning in a dynamic setting. We consider a social network in which each individual observes a private signal about the underlying state of the world and communicates with her neighbors at each time period. Unlike many existing approaches, the underlying state is dynamic, and evolves according to a geometric random walk. We view the scenario as an optimization problem where agents aim to learn the true state while suffering the smallest possible loss. Based on the decomposition of the global loss function, we introduce two update mechanisms, each of which generates an estimate of the true state. We establish a tight bound on the rate of change of the underlying state, under which individuals can track the parameter with a bounded variance. Then, we characterize explicit expressions for the steady state mean-square deviation(MSD) of the estimates from the truth, per individual. We observe that only one of the estimators recovers the optimal MSD, which underscores the impact of the objective function decomposition on the learning quality. Finally, we provide an upper bound on the regret of the proposed methods, measured as an average of errors in estimating the parameter in a finite time.Comment: 12 pages, To appear in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS) 201

Learning without Recall: A Case for Log-Linear Learning

We analyze a model of learning and belief formation in networks in which agents follow Bayes rule yet they do not recall their history of past observations and cannot reason about how other agents' beliefs are formed. They do so by making rational inferences about their observations which include a sequence of independent and identically distributed private signals as well as the beliefs of their neighboring agents at each time. Fully rational agents would successively apply Bayes rule to the entire history of observations. This leads to forebodingly complex inferences due to lack of knowledge about the global network structure that causes those observations. To address these complexities, we consider a Learning without Recall model, which in addition to providing a tractable framework for analyzing the behavior of rational agents in social networks, can also provide a behavioral foundation for the variety of non-Bayesian update rules in the literature. We present the implications of various choices for time-varying priors of such agents and how this choice affects learning and its rate.Comment: in 5th IFAC Workshop on Distributed Estimation and Control in Networked Systems, (NecSys 2015