A lattice grain model of hillslope evolution

Thispaperdescribesandexploresanewcontinuous-timestochasticcellularautomatonmodelofhill- slope evolution. The Grain Hill model provides a computational framework with which to study slope forms that arise from stochastic disturbance and rock weathering events. The model operates on a hexagonal lattice, with cell states representing fluid, rock, and grain aggregates that are either stationary or in a state of motion in one of the six cardinal lattice directions. Cells representing near-surface soil material undergo stochastic disturbance events, in which initially stationary material is put into motion. Net downslope transport emerges from the greater likelihood for disturbed material to move downhill than to move uphill. Cells representing rock undergo stochas- tic weathering events in which the rock is converted into regolith. The model can reproduce a range of common slope forms, from fully soil mantled to rocky or partially mantled, and from convex-upward to planar shapes. An optional additional state represents large blocks that cannot be displaced upward by disturbance events. With the addition of this state, the model captures the morphology of hogbacks, scarps, and similar features. In its simplest form, the model has only three process parameters, which represent disturbance frequency, characteris- tic disturbance depth, and base-level lowering rate, respectively. Incorporating physical weathering of rock adds one additional parameter, representing the characteristic rock weathering rate. These parameters are not arbitrary but rather have a direct link with corresponding parameters in continuum theory. Comparison between observed and modeled slope forms demonstrates that the model can reproduce both the shape and scale of real hillslope profiles. Model experiments highlight the importance of regolith cover fraction in governing both the downslope mass transport rate and the rate of physical weathering. Equilibrium rocky hillslope profiles are possible even when the rate of base-level lowering exceeds the nominal bare-rock weathering rate, because increases in both slope gradient and roughness can allow for rock weathering rates that are greater than the flat-surface maximum. Examples of transient relaxation of steep, rocky slopes predict the formation of a regolith-mantled pediment that migrates headward through time while maintaining a sharp slope break

Congested Traffic States in Empirical Observations and Microscopic Simulations

We present data from several German freeways showing different kinds of congested traffic forming near road inhomogeneities, specifically lane closings, intersections, or uphill gradients. The states are localized or extended, homogeneous or oscillating. Combined states are observed as well, like the coexistence of moving localized clusters and clusters pinned at road inhomogeneities, or regions of oscillating congested traffic upstream of nearly homogeneous congested traffic. The experimental findings are consistent with a recently proposed theoretical phase diagram for traffic near on-ramps [D. Helbing, A. Hennecke, and M. Treiber, Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 82}, 4360 (1999)]. We simulate these situations with a novel continuous microscopic single-lane model, the ``intelligent driver model'' (IDM), using the empirical boundary conditions. All observations, including the coexistence of states, are qualitatively reproduced by describing inhomogeneities with local variations of one model parameter. We show that the results of the microscopic model can be understood by formulating the theoretical phase diagram for bottlenecks in a more general way. In particular, a local drop of the road capacity induced by parameter variations has practically the same effect as an on-ramp.Comment: Now published in Phys. Rev. E. Minor changes suggested by a referee are incorporated; full bibliographic info added. For related work see http://www.mtreiber.de/ and http://www.helbing.org

Mathematical Model and Cloud Computing of Road Network Operations under Non-Recurrent Events

Optimal traffic control under incident-driven congestion is crucial for road safety and maintaining network performance. Over the last decade, prediction and simulation of road traffic play important roles in network operation. This dissertation focuses on development of a machine learning-based prediction model, a stochastic cell transmission model (CTM), and an optimisation model. Numerical studies were performed to evaluate the proposed models. The results indicate that proposed models are helpful for road management during road incidents

System Identification for the design of behavioral controllers in crowd evacuations

Behavioral modification using active instructions is a promising interventional method to optimize crowd evacuations. However, existing research efforts have been more focused on eliciting general principles of optimal behavior than providing explicit mechanisms to dynamically induce the desired behaviors, which could be claimed as a significant knowledge gap in crowd evacuation optimization. In particular, we propose using dynamic distancekeeping instructions to regulate pedestrian flows and improve safety and evacuation time. We investigate the viability of using Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques to develop a behavioral controller that obtains the optimal distance-keeping instructions to modulate the pedestrian density at bottlenecks. System Identification is proposed as a general methodology to model crowd dynamics and build prediction models. Thus, for a testbed evacuation scenario and input?output data generated from designed microscopic simulations, we estimate a linear AutoRegressive eXogenous model (ARX), which is used as the prediction model in the MPC controller. A microscopic simulation framework is used to validate the proposal that embeds the designed MPC controller, tuned and refined in closed-loop using the ARX model as the Plant model. As a significant contribution, the proposed combination of MPC control and System Identification to model crowd dynamics appears ideally suited to develop realistic and practical control systems for controlling crowd motion. The flexibility of MPC control technology to impose constraints on control variables and include different disturbance models in the prediction model has confirmed its suitability in the design of behavioral controllers in crowd evacuations. We found that an adequate selection of output disturbance models in the predictor is critical in the type of responses given by the controller. Interestingly, it is expected that this proposal can be extended to different evacuation scenarios, control variables, control systems, and multiple-input multiple-output control structures.Ministerio de Economía y Competitivida