13,254 research outputs found
Automatic Bayesian Density Analysis
Making sense of a dataset in an automatic and unsupervised fashion is a
challenging problem in statistics and AI. Classical approaches for {exploratory
data analysis} are usually not flexible enough to deal with the uncertainty
inherent to real-world data: they are often restricted to fixed latent
interaction models and homogeneous likelihoods; they are sensitive to missing,
corrupt and anomalous data; moreover, their expressiveness generally comes at
the price of intractable inference. As a result, supervision from statisticians
is usually needed to find the right model for the data. However, since domain
experts are not necessarily also experts in statistics, we propose Automatic
Bayesian Density Analysis (ABDA) to make exploratory data analysis accessible
at large. Specifically, ABDA allows for automatic and efficient missing value
estimation, statistical data type and likelihood discovery, anomaly detection
and dependency structure mining, on top of providing accurate density
estimation. Extensive empirical evidence shows that ABDA is a suitable tool for
automatic exploratory analysis of mixed continuous and discrete tabular data.Comment: In proceedings of the Thirty-Third AAAI Conference on Artificial
Intelligence (AAAI-19
A Bayesian Networks Approach to Operational Risk
A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm
of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a
Bayesian Network targeted for each bank using only internal loss data, and
takes into account in a simple and realistic way the correlations among
different processes of the bank. The internal losses are averaged over a
variable time horizon, so that the correlations at different times are removed,
while the correlations at the same time are kept: the averaged losses are thus
suitable to perform the learning of the network topology and parameters. The
algorithm has been validated on synthetic time series. It should be stressed
that the practical implementation of the proposed algorithm has a small impact
on the organizational structure of a bank and requires an investment in human
resources limited to the computational area
Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies
Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty
Scalable Planning and Learning for Multiagent POMDPs: Extended Version
Online, sample-based planning algorithms for POMDPs have shown great promise
in scaling to problems with large state spaces, but they become intractable for
large action and observation spaces. This is particularly problematic in
multiagent POMDPs where the action and observation space grows exponentially
with the number of agents. To combat this intractability, we propose a novel
scalable approach based on sample-based planning and factored value functions
that exploits structure present in many multiagent settings. This approach
applies not only in the planning case, but also in the Bayesian reinforcement
learning setting. Experimental results show that we are able to provide high
quality solutions to large multiagent planning and learning problems
Unimodal Thompson Sampling for Graph-Structured Arms
We study, to the best of our knowledge, the first Bayesian algorithm for
unimodal Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problems with graph structure. In this
setting, each arm corresponds to a node of a graph and each edge provides a
relationship, unknown to the learner, between two nodes in terms of expected
reward. Furthermore, for any node of the graph there is a path leading to the
unique node providing the maximum expected reward, along which the expected
reward is monotonically increasing. Previous results on this setting describe
the behavior of frequentist MAB algorithms. In our paper, we design a Thompson
Sampling-based algorithm whose asymptotic pseudo-regret matches the lower bound
for the considered setting. We show that -as it happens in a wide number of
scenarios- Bayesian MAB algorithms dramatically outperform frequentist ones. In
particular, we provide a thorough experimental evaluation of the performance of
our and state-of-the-art algorithms as the properties of the graph vary
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