2,100 research outputs found
Partition MCMC for inference on acyclic digraphs
Acyclic digraphs are the underlying representation of Bayesian networks, a
widely used class of probabilistic graphical models. Learning the underlying
graph from data is a way of gaining insights about the structural properties of
a domain. Structure learning forms one of the inference challenges of
statistical graphical models.
MCMC methods, notably structure MCMC, to sample graphs from the posterior
distribution given the data are probably the only viable option for Bayesian
model averaging. Score modularity and restrictions on the number of parents of
each node allow the graphs to be grouped into larger collections, which can be
scored as a whole to improve the chain's convergence. Current examples of
algorithms taking advantage of grouping are the biased order MCMC, which acts
on the alternative space of permuted triangular matrices, and non ergodic edge
reversal moves.
Here we propose a novel algorithm, which employs the underlying combinatorial
structure of DAGs to define a new grouping. As a result convergence is improved
compared to structure MCMC, while still retaining the property of producing an
unbiased sample. Finally the method can be combined with edge reversal moves to
improve the sampler further.Comment: Revised version. 34 pages, 16 figures. R code available at
https://github.com/annlia/partitionMCM
Probabilistic Graphical Model Representation in Phylogenetics
Recent years have seen a rapid expansion of the model space explored in
statistical phylogenetics, emphasizing the need for new approaches to
statistical model representation and software development. Clear communication
and representation of the chosen model is crucial for: (1) reproducibility of
an analysis, (2) model development and (3) software design. Moreover, a
unified, clear and understandable framework for model representation lowers the
barrier for beginners and non-specialists to grasp complex phylogenetic models,
including their assumptions and parameter/variable dependencies.
Graphical modeling is a unifying framework that has gained in popularity in
the statistical literature in recent years. The core idea is to break complex
models into conditionally independent distributions. The strength lies in the
comprehensibility, flexibility, and adaptability of this formalism, and the
large body of computational work based on it. Graphical models are well-suited
to teach statistical models, to facilitate communication among phylogeneticists
and in the development of generic software for simulation and statistical
inference.
Here, we provide an introduction to graphical models for phylogeneticists and
extend the standard graphical model representation to the realm of
phylogenetics. We introduce a new graphical model component, tree plates, to
capture the changing structure of the subgraph corresponding to a phylogenetic
tree. We describe a range of phylogenetic models using the graphical model
framework and introduce modules to simplify the representation of standard
components in large and complex models. Phylogenetic model graphs can be
readily used in simulation, maximum likelihood inference, and Bayesian
inference using, for example, Metropolis-Hastings or Gibbs sampling of the
posterior distribution
Counting and Sampling from Markov Equivalent DAGs Using Clique Trees
A directed acyclic graph (DAG) is the most common graphical model for
representing causal relationships among a set of variables. When restricted to
using only observational data, the structure of the ground truth DAG is
identifiable only up to Markov equivalence, based on conditional independence
relations among the variables. Therefore, the number of DAGs equivalent to the
ground truth DAG is an indicator of the causal complexity of the underlying
structure--roughly speaking, it shows how many interventions or how much
additional information is further needed to recover the underlying DAG. In this
paper, we propose a new technique for counting the number of DAGs in a Markov
equivalence class. Our approach is based on the clique tree representation of
chordal graphs. We show that in the case of bounded degree graphs, the proposed
algorithm is polynomial time. We further demonstrate that this technique can be
utilized for uniform sampling from a Markov equivalence class, which provides a
stochastic way to enumerate DAGs in the equivalence class and may be needed for
finding the best DAG or for causal inference given the equivalence class as
input. We also extend our counting and sampling method to the case where prior
knowledge about the underlying DAG is available, and present applications of
this extension in causal experiment design and estimating the causal effect of
joint interventions
Quantum Circuit For Discovering from Data the Structure of Classical Bayesian Networks
We give some quantum circuits for calculating the probability of a
graph given data . together with a transition probability matrix for
each node of the graph, constitutes a Classical Bayesian Network, or CB net for
short. Bayesian methods for calculating have been given before (the so
called structural modular and ordered modular models), but these earlier
methods were designed to work on a classical computer. The goal of this paper
is to "quantum computerize" those earlier methods.Comment: 20 pages (9 files: 1 .tex, 2 .sty, 6 .eps
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