Stick-Breaking Policy Learning in Dec-POMDPs

Expectation maximization (EM) has recently been shown to be an efficient algorithm for learning finite-state controllers (FSCs) in large decentralized POMDPs (Dec-POMDPs). However, current methods use fixed-size FSCs and often converge to maxima that are far from optimal. This paper considers a variable-size FSC to represent the local policy of each agent. These variable-size FSCs are constructed using a stick-breaking prior, leading to a new framework called \emph{decentralized stick-breaking policy representation} (Dec-SBPR). This approach learns the controller parameters with a variational Bayesian algorithm without having to assume that the Dec-POMDP model is available. The performance of Dec-SBPR is demonstrated on several benchmark problems, showing that the algorithm scales to large problems while outperforming other state-of-the-art methods

Approximate Decentralized Bayesian Inference

This paper presents an approximate method for performing Bayesian inference in models with conditional independence over a decentralized network of learning agents. The method first employs variational inference on each individual learning agent to generate a local approximate posterior, the agents transmit their local posteriors to other agents in the network, and finally each agent combines its set of received local posteriors. The key insight in this work is that, for many Bayesian models, approximate inference schemes destroy symmetry and dependencies in the model that are crucial to the correct application of Bayes' rule when combining the local posteriors. The proposed method addresses this issue by including an additional optimization step in the combination procedure that accounts for these broken dependencies. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate that the decentralized method provides advantages in computational performance and predictive test likelihood over previous batch and distributed methods.Comment: This paper was presented at UAI 2014. Please use the following BibTeX citation: @inproceedings{Campbell14_UAI, Author = {Trevor Campbell and Jonathan P. How}, Title = {Approximate Decentralized Bayesian Inference}, Booktitle = {Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI)}, Year = {2014}

Streaming, Distributed Variational Inference for Bayesian Nonparametrics

This paper presents a methodology for creating streaming, distributed inference algorithms for Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models. In the proposed framework, processing nodes receive a sequence of data minibatches, compute a variational posterior for each, and make asynchronous streaming updates to a central model. In contrast to previous algorithms, the proposed framework is truly streaming, distributed, asynchronous, learning-rate-free, and truncation-free. The key challenge in developing the framework, arising from the fact that BNP models do not impose an inherent ordering on their components, is finding the correspondence between minibatch and central BNP posterior components before performing each update. To address this, the paper develops a combinatorial optimization problem over component correspondences, and provides an efficient solution technique. The paper concludes with an application of the methodology to the DP mixture model, with experimental results demonstrating its practical scalability and performance.Comment: This paper was presented at NIPS 2015. Please use the following BibTeX citation: @inproceedings{Campbell15_NIPS, Author = {Trevor Campbell and Julian Straub and John W. {Fisher III} and Jonathan P. How}, Title = {Streaming, Distributed Variational Inference for Bayesian Nonparametrics}, Booktitle = {Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS)}, Year = {2015}

Optimization for Probabilistic Machine Learning

We have access to great variety of datasets more than any time in the history. Everyday, more data is collected from various natural resources and digital platforms. Great advances in the area of machine learning research in the past few decades have relied strongly on availability of these datasets. However, analyzing them imposes significant challenges that are mainly due to two factors. First, the datasets have complex structures with hidden interdependencies. Second, most of the valuable datasets are high dimensional and are largely scaled. The main goal of a machine learning framework is to design a model that is a valid representative of the observations and develop a learning algorithm to make inference about unobserved or latent data based on the observations. Discovering hidden patterns and inferring latent characteristics in such datasets is one of the greatest challenges in the area of machine learning research. In this dissertation, I will investigate some of the challenges in modeling and algorithm design, and present my research results on how to overcome these obstacles. Analyzing data generally involves two main stages. The first stage is designing a model that is flexible enough to capture complex variation and latent structures in data and is robust enough to generalize well to the unseen data. Designing an expressive and interpretable model is one of crucial objectives in this stage. The second stage involves training learning algorithm on the observed data and measuring the accuracy of model and learning algorithm. This stage usually involves an optimization problem whose objective is to tune the model to the training data and learn the model parameters. Finding global optimal or sufficiently good local optimal solution is one of the main challenges in this step. Probabilistic models are one of the best known models for capturing data generating process and quantifying uncertainties in data using random variables and probability distributions. They are powerful models that are shown to be adaptive and robust and can scale well to large datasets. However, most probabilistic models have a complex structure. Training them could become challenging commonly due to the presence of intractable integrals in the calculation. To remedy this, they require approximate inference strategies that often results in non-convex optimization problems. The optimization part ensures that the model is the best representative of data or data generating process. The non-convexity of an optimization problem take away the general guarantee on finding a global optimal solution. It will be shown later in this dissertation that inference for a significant number of probabilistic models require solving a non-convex optimization problem. One of the well-known methods for approximate inference in probabilistic modeling is variational inference. In the Bayesian setting, the target is to learn the true posterior distribution for model parameters given the observations and prior distributions. The main challenge involves marginalization of all the other variables in the model except for the variable of interest. This high-dimensional integral is generally computationally hard, and for many models there is no known polynomial time algorithm for calculating them exactly. Variational inference deals with finding an approximate posterior distribution for Bayesian models where finding the true posterior distribution is analytically or numerically impossible. It assumes a family of distribution for the estimation, and finds the closest member of that family to the true posterior distribution using a distance measure. For many models though, this technique requires solving a non-convex optimization problem that has no general guarantee on reaching a global optimal solution. This dissertation presents a convex relaxation technique for dealing with hardness of the optimization involved in the inference. The proposed convex relaxation technique is based on semidefinite optimization that has a general applicability to polynomial optimization problem. I will present theoretical foundations and in-depth details of this relaxation in this work. Linear dynamical systems represent the functionality of many real-world physical systems. They can describe the dynamics of a linear time-varying observation which is controlled by a controller unit with quadratic cost function objectives. Designing distributed and decentralized controllers is the goal of many of these systems, which computationally, results in a non-convex optimization problem. In this dissertation, I will further investigate the issues arising in this area and develop a convex relaxation framework to deal with the optimization challenges. Setting the correct number of model parameters is an important aspect for a good probabilistic model. If there are only a few parameters, model may lack capturing all the essential relations and components in the observations while too many parameters may cause significant complications in learning or overfit to the observations. Non-parametric models are suitable techniques to deal with this issue. They allow the model to learn the appropriate number of parameters to describe the data and make predictions. In this dissertation, I will present my work on designing Bayesian non-parametric models as powerful tools for learning representations of data. Moreover, I will describe the algorithm that we derived to efficiently train the model on the observations and learn the number of model parameters. Later in this dissertation, I will present my works on designing probabilistic models in combination with deep learning methods for representing sequential data. Sequential datasets comprise a significant portion of resources in the area of machine learning research. Designing models to capture dependencies in sequential datasets are of great interest and have a wide variety of applications in engineering, medicine and statistics. Recent advances in deep learning research has shown exceptional promises in this area. However, they lack interpretability in their general form. To remedy this, I will present my work on mixing probabilistic models with neural network models that results in better performance and expressiveness of the results

Stochastic Optimization For Multi-Agent Statistical Learning And Control

The goal of this thesis is to develop a mathematical framework for optimal, accurate, and affordable complexity statistical learning among networks of autonomous agents. We begin by noting the connection between statistical inference and stochastic programming, and consider extensions of this setup to settings in which a network of agents each observes a local data stream and would like to make decisions that are good with respect to information aggregated across the entire network. There is an open-ended degree of freedom in this problem formulation, however: the selection of the estimator function class which defines the feasible set of the stochastic program. Our central contribution is the design of stochastic optimization tools in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces that yield optimal, accurate, and affordable complexity statistical learning for a multi-agent network. To obtain this result, we first explore the relative merits and drawbacks of different function class selections. In Part I, we consider multi-agent expected risk minimization this problem setting for the case that each agent seems to learn a common globally optimal generalized linear models (GLMs) by developing a stochastic variant of Arrow-Hurwicz primal-dual method. We establish convergence to the primal-dual optimal pair when either consensus or ``proximity constraints encode the fact that we want all agents\u27 to agree, or nearby agents to make decisions that are close to one another. Empirically, we observe that these convergence results are substantiated but that convergence may not translate into statistical accuracy. More broadly, optimality within a given estimator function class is not the same as one that makes minimal inference errors. The optimality-accuracy tradeoff of GLMs motivates subsequent efforts to learn more sophisticated estimators based upon learned feature encodings of the data that is fed into the statistical model. The specific tool we turn to in Part II is dictionary learning, where we optimize both over regression weights and an encoding of the data, which yields a non-convex problem. We investigate the use of stochastic methods for online task-driven dictionary learning, and obtain promising performance for the task of a ground robot learning to anticipate control uncertainty based on its past experience. Heartened by this implementation, we then consider extensions of this framework for a multi-agent network to each learn globally optimal task-driven dictionaries based on stochastic primal-dual methods. However, it is here the non-convexity of the optimization problem causes problems: stringent conditions on stochastic errors and the duality gap limit the applicability of the convergence guarantees, and impractically small learning rates are required for convergence in practice. Thus, we seek to learn nonlinear statistical models while preserving convexity, which is possible through kernel methods ( Part III). However, the increased descriptive power of nonparametric estimation comes at the cost of infinite complexity. Thus, we develop a stochastic approximation algorithm in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) that ameliorates this complexity issue while preserving optimality: we combine the functional generalization of stochastic gradient method (FSGD) with greedily constructed low-dimensional subspace projections based on matching pursuit. We establish that the proposed method yields a controllable trade-off between optimality and memory, and yields highly accurate parsimonious statistical models in practice. % Then, we develop a multi-agent extension of this method by proposing a new node-separable penalty function and applying FSGD together with low-dimensional subspace projections. This extension allows a network of autonomous agents to learn a memory-efficient approximation to the globally optimal regression function based only on their local data stream and message passing with neighbors. In practice, we observe agents are able to stably learn highly accurate and memory-efficient nonlinear statistical models from streaming data. From here, we shift focus to a more challenging class of problems, motivated by the fact that true learning is not just revising predictions based upon data but augmenting behavior over time based on temporal incentives. This goal may be described by Markov Decision Processes (MDPs): at each point, an agent is in some state of the world, takes an action and then receives a reward while randomly transitioning to a new state. The goal of the agent is to select the action sequence to maximize its long-term sum of rewards, but determining how to select this action sequence when both the state and action spaces are infinite has eluded researchers for decades. As a precursor to this feat, we consider the problem of policy evaluation in infinite MDPs, in which we seek to determine the long-term sum of rewards when starting in a given state when actions are chosen according to a fixed distribution called a policy. We reformulate this problem as a RKHS-valued compositional stochastic program and we develop a functional extension of stochastic quasi-gradient algorithm operating in tandem with the greedy subspace projections mentioned above. We prove convergence with probability 1 to the Bellman fixed point restricted to this function class, and we observe a state of the art trade off in memory versus Bellman error for the proposed method on the Mountain Car driving task, which bodes well for incorporating policy evaluation into more sophisticated, provably stable reinforcement learning techniques, and in time, developing optimal collaborative multi-agent learning-based control systems