Estimation of progression of multi-state chronic disease using the Markov model and prevalence pool concept

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We propose a simple new method for estimating progression of a chronic disease with multi-state properties by unifying the prevalence pool concept with the Markov process model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Estimation of progression rates in the multi-state model is performed using the E-M algorithm. This approach is applied to data on Type 2 diabetes screening.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Good convergence of estimations is demonstrated. In contrast to previous Markov models, the major advantage of our proposed method is that integrating the prevalence pool equation (that the numbers entering the prevalence pool is equal to the number leaving it) into the likelihood function not only simplifies the likelihood function but makes estimation of parameters stable.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This approach may be useful in quantifying the progression of a variety of chronic diseases.</p

Retraction: Estimation of progression of multi-state chronic disease using the Markov model and prevalence pool concept

This article [1] has been retracted because the Editors are unable to ensure the scientific veracity of the findings or the ethical conduct of the authors despite an extensive investigation

Multi-state models for defining degrees of chronicity related to HIV-infected patient therapy adherence

Submitted by Fábio Marques ([email protected]) on 2018-11-05T14:12:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Multi-state models for defining degrees of chronicity related to HIV_Beatriz_Grinsztejn_INI_Lapclin-AIDS_2013.pdf: 272944 bytes, checksum: 10b54768af600f98f05d7af5d2b44bd8 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Regina Costa ([email protected]) on 2018-11-05T17:16:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Multi-state models for defining degrees of chronicity related to HIV_Beatriz_Grinsztejn_INI_Lapclin-AIDS_2013.pdf: 272944 bytes, checksum: 10b54768af600f98f05d7af5d2b44bd8 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2018-11-05T17:16:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Multi-state models for defining degrees of chronicity related to HIV_Beatriz_Grinsztejn_INI_Lapclin-AIDS_2013.pdf: 272944 bytes, checksum: 10b54768af600f98f05d7af5d2b44bd8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Paraná. Setor de Ciências Exatas. Curitiba, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Pesquisa Clínica em DST/AIDS. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Pesquisa Clínica em DST/AIDS. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Pesquisa Clínica em DST/AIDS. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.Poucos estudos sobre AIDS que avaliam fatores associados à falha terapêutica consideram sua evolução lenta, com a passagem por múltiplos estados de saúde, consequência do uso de antirretrovirais. Nesse artigo foram estudados fatores associados à progressão entre estados imunes, enfocando adesão, em 722 pacientes HIV+ acompanhados por 3 anos. O desfecho foi a contagem de células CD4 classificada em s1 (CD4 ≥ 500), s2 (350 ≤ CD4 < 500) e s3 (CD4 < 350). As transições entre estados foram modeladas por modelos multiestado. A adesão à terapia antirretroviral e o tempo de doença estão associados diferentemente à mudança do estado imune vivido pelo paciente. Baixa adesão à terapia aumentou o risco de s1→s2 e adesão intermediária aumentou o de s2→s3. Por outro lado, idades elevadas e tempo de doença de 2 a 4 anos se apresentam como fatores de proteção na progressão da AIDS. A modelagem multiestado é uma abordagem poderosa no estudo de doenças crônicas, por estimar os fatores associados a cada etapa da evolução de doenças crônicas, possibilitando a adoção de intervenções mais individualizadas e eficazes.Few studies on AIDS that evaluate factors associated with treatment failure have considered the slow evolution of the disease and multiple health state transitions following the use of antiretrovirals. In this article we study factors associated with the progression between different stages of the disease, focusing on therapy adherence using a sample of 722 HIV+ patients followed up for 3 years. States were defined using the following classifications of the CD4 cell count: s1 (CD4 ≥ 500); s2 (350 ≤ CD4 < 500); and s3 (CD4 < 350). The transitions between states were modeled using multi-state models. Antiretroviral therapy adherence and disease duration were associated with transitions between immune states during follow-up. Low adherence increased the hazard ratio of a transition between s1 to s2 and intermediate adherence increased the hazard ratio of a transition between s2 to s3. On the other hand, older age and disease duration between two and four years are protective factors for AIDS progression. Multi-state modeling is a powerful approach for studying chronic diseases and estimating factors associated with transitions between each stage of progression, thus enabling the use of more individualized and effective interventions.Existen pocos estudios sobre el SIDA que evalúan factores asociados al fallo terapéutico, consideran su evolución lenta, con el pasaje por múltiples estados de salud, consecuencia del uso de antirretrovirales. En ese artículo se estudiaron factores asociados a la progresión entre estados inmunes, enfocando adhesión, en 722 pacientes VIH+ acompañados durante 3 años. El desenlace fue el cómputo de células CD4, clasificado en s1 (CD4 ≥ 500), s2 (350 ≤ CD4 < 500) y s3 (CD4 < 350). Las transiciones entre estados se modelaron por modelos multi-estado. La adhesión a la terapia antirretroviral y el tiempo de enfermedad están asociados diferentemente al cambio del estado inmune vivido por el paciente. Baja adhesión a la terapia aumentó el riesgo de s1→s2 y una adhesión intermedia aumentó de un s2→s3. Por otro lado, edades elevadas y tiempo de enfermedad de 2 a 4 años se presentan como factores de protección en la progresión del SIDA. El modelo multi-estado es un enfoque poderoso en el estudio de enfermedades crónicas, por estimar los factores asociados a cada etapa de la evolución de enfermedades crónicas, posibilitando la adopción de intervenciones más individualizadas y eficaces

Data Informed Health Simulation Modeling

Combining reliable data with dynamic models can enhance the understanding of health-related phenomena. Smartphone sensor data characterizing discrete states is often suitable for analysis with machine learning classifiers. For dynamic models with continuous states, high-velocity data also serves an important role in model parameterization and calibration. Particle filtering (PF), combined with dynamic models, can support accurate recurrent estimation of continuous system state. This thesis explored these and related ideas with several case studies. The first employed multivariate Hidden Markov models (HMMs) to identify smoking intervals, using time-series of smartphone-based sensor data. Findings demonstrated that multivariate HMMs can achieve notable accuracy in classifying smoking state, with performance being strongly elevated by appropriate data conditioning. Reflecting the advantages of dynamic simulation models, this thesis has contributed two applications of articulated dynamic models: An agent-based model (ABM) of smoking and E-Cigarette use and a hybrid multi-scale model of diabetes in pregnancy (DIP). The ABM of smoking and E-Cigarette use, informed by cross-sectional data, supports investigations of smoking behavior change in light of the influence of social networks and E-Cigarette use. The DIP model was evidenced by both longitudinal and cross-sectional data, and is notable for its use of interwoven ABM, system dynamics (SD), and discrete event simulation elements to explore the interaction of risk factors, coupled dynamics of glycemia regulation, and intervention tradeoffs to address the growing incidence of DIP in the Australia Capital Territory. The final study applied PF with an SD model of mosquito development to estimate the underlying Culex mosquito population using various direct observations, including time series of weather-related factors and mosquito trap counts. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of PF in regrounding the states and evolving model parameters based on incoming observations. Using PF in the context of automated model calibration allows optimization of the values of parameters to markedly reduce model discrepancy. Collectively, the thesis demonstrates how characteristics and availability of data can influence model structure and scope, how dynamic model structure directly affects the ways that data can be used, and how advanced analysis methods for calibration and filtering can enhance model accuracy and versatility

Long-term survival and survivorship in non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients in Sweden

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is one of the top ten most common cancer types in Sweden. Although sometimes referred to as one disease, NHL is truly an umbrella term representing a heterogeneous group of diseases with varying clinical course and prognosis. The main data source for all four studies included in this thesis is the Swedish lymphoma register (SLR). This national quality register provides population-based data, detailed clinical information and the possibility to distinguish between different morphological subtypes of NHL. In Study I we provide a systematic presentation of temporal trends in absolute numbers of prevalent patients by NHL subtypes, linking them to trends in incidence, survival and mortality. Poisson regression was used to test for temporal trends. We found that an increasing incidence and improved survival have led to an increase in the prevalence of NHL overall and for almost all investigated subtypes between 2000 and 2016. This increase was most notable for diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL) among aggressive subtypes and marginal zone lymphomas among indolent subtypes. The prevalence provides a measure of burden of disease, useful for health care planning and to optimize resource allocation. The prevalence also represents the number of survivors in the population, at risk for relapses and psychological and physiological side effects of their lymphoma or treatment. The increase in number of prevalent NHL patients underscores the need to develop and evaluate alternative follow-up schemes of lymphoma survivors since especially patients diagnosed with indolent lymphoma subtypes are followed in the clinic for many years. The most common subtype of NHL, DLBCL is the focus in study II-IV. In recent years, the addition of rituximab to the standard combination chemotherapy has improved outcomes in patients with DLBCL. Nevertheless, every fourth patient treated curatively is expected to experience progressive disease or relapse. Study II aimed to quantify trends and remaining loss in life expectancy due to DLBCL in a population-based cohort. Loss in life expectancy was predicted using flexible parametric models from diagnosis and among two-year survivors, by age, sex and age-adjusted international prognostic index (aaIPI). The number of life-years lost decreased over the study period 2000-2013 in all patient groups. However, especially younger patients (≤60 years) with aaIPI≥2 were still estimated to lose many life years in 2013. Among two-year survivors, the loss in life-expectancy was reduced to two years or less by the end of the study period, regardless of age, sex and aaIPI. By using novel measures, we illustrated the improvement of DLBCL survival in a population-based context and over the entire life-span. The standard chemotherapy for curative treatment of DLBCL contains the cardiotoxic anthracycline doxorubicin. An increased rate of heart failure is well documented following this treatment, whereas incidence and outcome of other cardiac complications, e.g. myocardial infarction, are less well studied. In Study III we assessed the incidence, characteristics and outcome of acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) in curatively treated patients with DLBCL. Patients were matched to lymphoma-free comparators and the rate of AMI was estimated using flexible parametric survival models incorporating repeated events. Overall, DLBCL patients had a 33% excess rate of AMI compared to the general population. However, the excess rate was most pronounced during the first year after diagnosis and diminished after 2 years. The strongest risk factors for AMI were advanced age, male sex and pre-existing comorbidity. There was no difference in AMI characteristics, extent of treatment or 30-day survival following hospitalization for AMI between DLBCL patients and comparators. The increased risk of AMI especially during the first 2 years and among elderly patients calls for improved cardiac monitoring. In Study IV we estimated real-world probabilities for lasting remission by clinical disease characteristics using a multi-state model approach. DLBCL patients who achieved remission after primary treatment were followed for repeated relapses and death. Flexible parametric models were used to model transition rates between disease stages accounting for competing events at each transition. At 2 years after end of primary treatment, 81% of the patients remained in remission, 13% had relapsed and 6 % of patients had died in first remission. The probability of remaining in remission for at least 2 years was reduced by 24 percentage units for patients with international prognostic index, IPI 4-5 compared to patients with IPI 0-1. On average, these patients lost 4.4 months of being in remission the first 2 years. Only 43% of relapsing patients achieved a second remission and half of them (51%) relapsed again - reflecting the difficulties in treating relapsing patients

Let's End HepC: modelling public health epidemiological policies applied to Hepatitis C in Spain

Background: The WHO has defined international targets toward the elimination of hepatitis C by 2030. Most countries cannot be on track to achieve this goal unless many challenges are surpassed. The Let's End HepC (LEHC) tool aims to contribute to the control of hepatitis C. The innovation of this tool combines the modelling of public health policies (PHP) focused on hepatitis C with epidemiological modelling of the disease, obtaining a unique result that allows to forecast the impact of policy outcomes. The model was applied to several countries, including Spain. Methods: To address the stated objective, we applied the “Adaptive Conjoint Analysis” for PHP decision-making and Markov Chains in the LEHC modelling tool. The tool also aims to be used as an element of health literacy for patient advocacy through gamification mechanisms and country comparability. The LEHC project has been conducted in several countries, including Spain. The population segments comprised in the project are: People Who Inject Drugs (PWID), prisoners, blood products, remnant population. Results: A total of 24 PHP related to hepatitis C were included in the LEHC project. It was identified that Spain had fully implemented 14 of those policies to control hepatitis C. According to LEHC's model forecast, the WHO's Hepatitis C elimination goal on reducing the number of patients living with Hepatitis C to 10% can be achieved in Spain by 2026 if current policies are maintained. The model estimates that the total population in Spain, by 2026, is expected to comprise 26,367 individuals living with hepatitis C. Moreover, if the 24 PHP considered for this study are fully implemented in Spain, the elimination goal may be achieved in 2024, with 29,615 individuals living with hepatitis C by that year. Conclusion: The findings corroborate the view that Spain has set great efforts in directing PHP toward Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination by 2030. However, there is still room for improvement, namely in further implementing 10 of the 24 PHP considered for the LEHC project. By maintaining the 14 PHP in force, the LEHC model estimates the HCV elimination in the country by 2026, and by 2024 if further measures are employed to control the disease.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The impact of dual HIV and HPV vaccine strategies among adolescents in a resource constrained setting

A thesis completed by published work, Submitted to the School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Johannesburg, South Africa December 2016.Introduction With the largest epidemic in the world, the consequences of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa extend far beyond its disease burden. In fact, patterns of HIV-related infection and mortality in South Africa still reflect social cleavages and inequalities. Similarly, poverty-related issues such as poor education, unemployment and subsequent low socio-economic status, rural residence and inadequate access to health care are all implicated in human papillomavirus (HPV) associated cervical cancer-related mortality (of which South Africa also has the highest globally). Despite the knowledge of reproductive functions and sexuality being poor among adolescents in South Africa, the majority commence their sexual activity early with an estimated national average of 15 years for girls and 14 years for boys. Further, many South African adolescents engage in sexual risk-taking behaviours including concurrent partners and unprotected sexual acts that considerably increase their vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections including HIV and HPV. In recognising the unique health needs of adolescents in South Africa, the national government has already pin-pointed school health services as a strategic arm of primary health care re-engineering. The aim of this body of work is to elaborate on restructuring of adolescent health care by introducing the HIV and HPV vaccine concomitantly in South Africa via a school-based sexual and reproductive health service. Methodology Data from four studies were analysed and are presented in three published and two unpublished papers. The first study evaluated the synergism between HIV and HPV in the South African context and formed the basis of the literature review. The second study considered HIV vaccine implementation alone. The third study assessed dual HIV and HPV vaccine strategies among females and the final study compared the dual vaccination strategy against recognised biomedical HIV prevention interventions. The studies evaluated the implementation of a hypothetical HIV vaccine and the bivalent HPV vaccine both individually and in combination when administered to school-going adolescents in South Africa. The health outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of these strategies were assessed. Assumptions were made regarding the hypothetical HIV vaccine (based on HIV vaccine studies conducted to date) including a coverage rate of 60% (uncertainty range: 30-70%), vaccine efficacy of 50% (uncertainty range: 30-70%) and vaccine price per dose of US$12 (uncertainty range: US$ 3-24). The uncertainty ranges were tested in the sensitivity analysis. Mortality statistics, disease transition parameters (for the individual diseases and the models representing joint disease) and HPV vaccine characteristics were drawn from the South African literature. The joint effectiveness of the dual vaccine strategy was considered multiplicative. Nine year old adolescents attending South African schools in 2012 were eligible for the intervention (vaccination) that was introduced opportunistically as part of the national health initiative introducing school-based sexual and reproductive health services. The learners were targeted prior to their reported sexual debut. The HIV vaccine was considered against the comparator of HIV counselling and testing (HCT) and the national roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) that constituted the standard of care in South Africa. The HPV vaccine was modelled as prevention against HPV-related cervical cancer and pre-cancerous HPV-related cervical states. The health service provider (provider) perspective was adopted and the cohort was modelled through a lifetime horizon of 70 years with annual cycles. The economic costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3% with an uncertainty range between 0% and 6% assessed. Cost valuations were for 2012 and costs were adjusted to this common year. The quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was used as the outcome measure of health related quality of life and was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the comparator against the vaccination interventions. The core model was a semi-Markov simulation with annual cycles. The study population entered the model HIV and HPV disease free and were exposed to the risk of acquiring each disease annually. The model structure was parameterised drawing from South African data available in the literature. One-way sensitivity analyses evaluated the impact of single assumptions on cost and outcomes. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) with a bootstrapping technique explored the uncertainty in the model and evaluated the robustness of the results. The PSA data generated determined if the intervention fell below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. As South Africa does not have a pre-defined WTP threshold, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (for 2012) was used as a proxy in accordance with the World Health Organization’s Guide to Cost-Effective Analysis. Additionally, benchmark interventions were used in the final comparison study as a measure of cost-effectiveness. Ethical approval for the study was obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committee (Medical) of the University of the Witwatersrand. Findings The second study explored the implementation of the HIV vaccine on an individual and national, programmatic level. The simultaneous implementation of HIV vaccination services with current HIV management programmes would be cost-effective, even at relatively higher vaccine cost. At base vaccine cost of US$12, the ICER was US$ 43 per QALY gained, with improved ICER values yielded at lower vaccine costs. The ICER was sensitive to the duration of vaccine-mediated protection and to variations in the vaccine efficacy. Data from this work demonstrate that vaccines offering longer duration of protection and at lower cost would result in improved ICER values. Assessing this HIV vaccine model on a national programmatic level, yielded an ICER of US$5 per life-year gained (LYG) (95$ 3-12) compared with the comparator. This fell considerably below the national WTP threshold of cost-effectiveness. This also translated to an 11% increase in per capita costs from US$80 to US$ 89. National implementation of this intervention could potentially result in an estimated cumulative gain of 24 million years of life (95% CI 8–34 million years) among those adolescents aged between 10-19 years that were vaccinated. The 10 year absolute risk reduction projected by HIV vaccine implementation was 0.42% for HIV incidence and 0.41% for HIV mortality. The ICER was sensitive to the HIV vaccine efficacy, coverage and vaccine pricing in the sensitivity analysis. The third study assessed the impact of dual HIV and HPV implementation strategies. Programmes that involved the dual vaccine strategy were assessed as cost-saving. ICER values were sensitive to the HIV vaccine cost. The dual vaccine strategy resulted in 10 year absolute risk reductions in HIV incidence (5.24%), dual mortality (1.21%) and a reduction in HPV incidence (0.39%) compared with no vaccination. Importantly, the reduction in HIV incidence rate and dual mortality rate in the dual vaccine strategy exceeded the reductions noted with the use of the HIV vaccine alone. All scenarios assessed with the dual vaccine strategy were cost-effective. Lower vaccine prices and reduced discount rates were associated with improved ICER outcomes. The final study compared the biomedical interventions of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) and the scaling-up of ART coverage against the vaccine strategies. When compared with other biomedical HIV prevention interventions, the dual vaccination intervention was the most cost-effective strategy (US$7 per QALY gained) and averted 29$ 30 per QALY gained) proved more cost-effective than HIV vaccination alone (US$ 93 per QALY gained), though VMMC averted 6% more new infections than the HIV vaccine. PrEP interventions were the least cost-effective. Combined dual vaccination and VMMC strategies represent the only dominant intervention. Strategies involving oral PrEP were the least cost-effective. Conclusion The findings of this thesis have implications for school-based adolescent health care and HIV- and HPV-related disease prevention among adolescents, a highly susceptible population. The cost-effectiveness of the dual HIV and HPV vaccine strategy was demonstrated, and the improved health outcomes associated with the interventions quantified. Proposals were suggested regarding possible combinations of HIV prevention interventions that could yield the favourable health outcomes with the most efficient use of financial resources. Several important areas for future research were identified to shed light on improving adolescent health care and for optimising HIV prevention strategies. These include integrating HIV and HPV services as part of the re-engineering of primary health care in South Africa, and then formulating economic evaluations of HIV/HPV prevention strategies targeting adolescents specifically. Further, more effective methods of collecting data on socially marginalised populations such as young people need to be explored. Another vital research area is the discussion and implementation of existing school health documents with the ideals embodied in the school health programme envisaged under the National Health Insurance restructuring. Once these are integrated, the cost implication of the combined programmes need to be assessed.MT201

Long-term monitoring in primary care for chronic kidney disease and chronic heart failure: a multi-method research programme

Background: Long-term monitoring is important in chronic condition management. Despite considerable costs of monitoring, there is no or poor evidence on how, what and when to monitor. The aim of this study was to improve understanding, methods, evidence base and practice of clinical monitoring in primary care, focusing on two areas: chronic kidney disease and chronic heart failure. Objectives: The research questions were as follows: does the choice of test affect better care while being affordable to the NHS? Can the number of tests used to manage individuals with early-stage kidney disease, and hence the costs, be reduced? Is it possible to monitor heart failure using a simple blood test? Can this be done using a rapid test in a general practitioner consultation? Would changes in the management of these conditions be acceptable to patients and carers? Design: Various study designs were employed, including cohort, feasibility study, Clinical Practice Research Datalink analysis, seven systematic reviews, two qualitative studies, one cost-effectiveness analysis and one cost recommendation. Setting: This study was set in UK primary care. Data sources: Data were collected from study participants and sourced from UK general practice and hospital electronic health records, and worldwide literature. Participant: The participants were NHS patients (Clinical Practice Research Datalink: 4.5 million patients), chronic kidney disease and chronic heart failure patients managed in primary care (including 750 participants in the cohort study) and primary care health professionals. Interventions: The interventions were monitoring with blood and urine tests (for chronic kidney disease) and monitoring with blood tests and weight measurement (for chronic heart failure). Main outcome measures: The main outcomes were the frequency, accuracy, utility, acceptability, costs and cost-effectiveness of monitoring. Results: Chronic kidney disease: serum creatinine testing has increased steadily since 1997, with most results being normal (83% in 2013). Increases in tests of creatinine and proteinuria correspond to their introduction as indicators in the Quality and Outcomes Framework. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation had 2.7% greater accuracy (95% confidence interval 1.6% to 3.8%) than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation for estimating glomerular filtration rate. Estimated annual transition rates to the next chronic kidney disease stage are ≈ 2% for people with normal urine albumin, 3–5% for people with microalbuminuria (3–30 mg/mmol) and 3–12% for people with macroalbuminuria (> 30 mg/mmol). Variability in estimated glomerular filtration rate-creatinine leads to misclassification of chronic kidney disease stage in 12–15% of tests in primary care. Glycaemic-control and lipid-modifying drugs are associated with a 6% (95% confidence interval 2% to 10%) and 4% (95% confidence interval 0% to 8%) improvement in renal function, respectively. Neither estimated glomerular filtration rate-creatinine nor estimated glomerular filtration rate-Cystatin C have utility in predicting rate of kidney function change. Patients viewed phrases such as ‘kidney damage’ or ‘kidney failure’ as frightening, and the term ‘chronic’ was misinterpreted as serious. Diagnosis of asymptomatic conditions (chronic kidney disease) was difficult to understand, and primary care professionals often did not use ‘chronic kidney disease’ when managing patients at early stages. General practitioners relied on Clinical Commissioning Group or Quality and Outcomes Framework alerts rather than National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance for information. Cost-effectiveness modelling did not demonstrate a tangible benefit of monitoring kidney function to guide preventative treatments, except for individuals with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 60–90 ml/minute/1.73 m2, aged < 70 years and without cardiovascular disease, where monitoring every 3–4 years to guide cardiovascular prevention may be cost-effective. Chronic heart failure: natriuretic peptide-guided treatment could reduce all-cause mortality by 13% and heart failure admission by 20%. Implementing natriuretic peptide-guided treatment is likely to require predefined protocols, stringent natriuretic peptide targets, relative targets and being located in a specialist heart failure setting. Remote monitoring can reduce all-cause mortality and heart failure hospitalisation, and could improve quality of life. Diagnostic accuracy of point-of-care N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide (sensitivity, 0.99; specificity, 0.60) was better than point-of-care B-type natriuretic peptide (sensitivity, 0.95; specificity, 0.57). Within-person variation estimates for B-type natriuretic peptide and weight were as follows: coefficient of variation, 46% and coefficient of variation, 1.2%, respectively. Point-of-care N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide within-person variability over 12 months was 881 pg/ml (95% confidence interval 380 to 1382 pg/ml), whereas between-person variability was 1972 pg/ml (95% confidence interval 1525 to 2791 pg/ml). For individuals, monitoring provided reassurance; future changes, such as increased testing, would be acceptable. Point-of-care testing in general practice surgeries was perceived positively, reducing waiting time and anxiety. Community heart failure nurses had greater knowledge of National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance than general practitioners and practice nurses. Health-care professionals believed that the cost of natriuretic peptide tests in routine monitoring would outweigh potential benefits. The review of cost-effectiveness studies suggests that natriuretic peptide-guided treatment is cost-effective in specialist settings, but with no evidence for its value in primary care settings. Limitations: No randomised controlled trial evidence was generated. The pathways to the benefit of monitoring chronic kidney disease were unclear. Conclusions: It is difficult to ascribe quantifiable benefits to monitoring chronic kidney disease, because monitoring is unlikely to change treatment, especially in chronic kidney disease stages G3 and G4. New approaches to monitoring chronic heart failure, such as point-of-care natriuretic peptide tests in general practice, show promise if high within-test variability can be overcome