Towards Informative Statistical Flow Inversion

This is the accepted version of 'Towards Informative Statistical Flow Inversion', archived originally at arXiv:0705.1939v1 [cs.NI] 14 May 2007.A problem which has recently attracted research attention is that of estimating the distribution of flow sizes in internet traffic. On high traffic links it is sometimes impossible to record every packet. Researchers have approached the problem of estimating flow lengths from sampled packet data in two separate ways. Firstly, different sampling methodologies can be tried to more accurately measure the desired system parameters. One such method is the sample-and-hold method where, if a packet is sampled, all subsequent packets in that flow are sampled. Secondly, statistical methods can be used to ``invert'' the sampled data and produce an estimate of flow lengths from a sample. In this paper we propose, implement and test two variants on the sample-and-hold method. In addition we show how the sample-and-hold method can be inverted to get an estimation of the genuine distribution of flow sizes. Experiments are carried out on real network traces to compare standard packet sampling with three variants of sample-and-hold. The methods are compared for their ability to reconstruct the genuine distribution of flow sizes in the traffic

Predicting vehicular travel times by modeling heterogeneous influences between arterial roads

Predicting travel times of vehicles in urban settings is a useful and tangible quantity of interest in the context of intelligent transportation systems. We address the problem of travel time prediction in arterial roads using data sampled from probe vehicles. There is only a limited literature on methods using data input from probe vehicles. The spatio-temporal dependencies captured by existing data driven approaches are either too detailed or very simplistic. We strike a balance of the existing data driven approaches to account for varying degrees of influence a given road may experience from its neighbors, while controlling the number of parameters to be learnt. Specifically, we use a NoisyOR conditional probability distribution (CPD) in conjunction with a dynamic bayesian network (DBN) to model state transitions of various roads. We propose an efficient algorithm to learn model parameters. We propose an algorithm for predicting travel times on trips of arbitrary durations. Using synthetic and real world data traces we demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method under different traffic conditions.Comment: 13 pages, conferenc

Nonminimal state space approach to multivariable ramp metering control of motorway bottlenecks

The paper discusses the automatic control of motorway traffic flows utilising ramp metering, i.e. traffic lights on the on-ramp entrances. A multivariable ramp metering system is developed, based on the nonminimal state space (NMSS) approach to control system design using adaptive proportional-integral-plus, linear quadratic (PIP–LQ) optimal controllers. The controller is evaluated on a nonlinear statistical traffic model (STM) simulation of the Amsterdam motorway ring road near the Coen Tunnel

Intersection SPaT Estimation by means of Single-Source Connected Vehicle Data

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version.Current traffic management systems in urban networks require real-time estimation of the traffic states. With the development of in-vehicle and communication technologies, connected vehicle data has emerged as a new data source for traffic measurement and estimation. In this work, a machine learning-based methodology for signal phase and timing information (SPaT) which is highly valuable for many applications such as green light optimal advisory systems and real-time vehicle navigation is proposed. The proposed methodology utilizes data from connected vehicles travelling within urban signalized links to estimate the queue tail location, vehicle accumulation, and subsequently, link outflow. Based on the produced high-resolution outflow estimates and data from crossing connected vehicles, SPaT information is estimated via correlation analysis and a machine learning approach. The main contribution is that the single-source proposed approach relies merely on connected vehicle data and requires neither prior information such as intersection cycle time nor data from other sources such as conventional traffic measuring tools. A sample four-leg intersection where each link comprises different number of lanes and experiences different traffic condition is considered as a testbed. The validation of the developed approach has been undertaken by comparing the produced estimates with realistic micro-simulation results as ground truth, and the achieved simulation results are promising even at low penetration rates of connected vehicles